Members Login
Username 
 
Password 
    Remember Me  
Post Info TOPIC: 2022 Women's Ranking Prediction Competition


Tennis legend

Status: Offline
Posts: 39427
Date:
2022 Women's Ranking Prediction Competition


Coup Droit wrote:

Interesting that only five are 'pessimistic'.

Five out of twenty-nine.

Natural optimism?


 I think there is statistical validity for having a prediction top 10 rankings total better than the current total even if you don't think there will be any great movement in the top 10 total over the year.

Essentially, I am afraid it is not unlikely that one or two of folk's top 10 will have unanticipated significant problems, most likely injury, that will push their ranking down. But we will generally have no  no idea who that will be . Maybe some by history a bit more likely but still fraught with danger trying to factor in, unless in respect of a playet starting injured such as with Kyle. So I see logi in just generally not trying to make such allowances.

I personally try to give my best estimates assuming none of my 10 have such unanticipated issues and will take the hit on one or two if and when they do have problems. 

So if the top 10 total ends up much like it is now and I haven't tried to allow for such problems then I should expect my prediction top 10 total to be a fair bit better than the current 1908 total. And it is, although by 266 is rather more than I had realised ( so I maybe I do have a wee bit of natural optimism in there too! )

Well, it makes sense to me 

PS: a further thought - the current GB top 10 I would think is a relatively young top 10 against the tour average, so maybe it is reasonable to expect the top 10 rankings total to improve if the 'unanticipated' is average.. Most 'should still be getting better? and possibly more mature in some cases, and personally I have probably allowed for that to some extent 



__________________


Futures qualifying

Status: Offline
Posts: 1755
Date:

Coup Droit wrote:

Interesting that only five are 'pessimistic'.


Five out of twenty-nine.


Natural optimism?




I'm one of those that is 'pessimistic', although only just. But I didn't base my selection on the current rankings, but rather mostly on 2021 performance. I suspect when compared against a normal ranking system my selection would be optimistic. We know Heather is significantly over-ranked on the official ranks thanks to her early 2020 success and some tournament wins in 2019 ITFs. My selection also includes Jodie being lower ranked than her current rank, when I suspect on a normal ranking system she would currently be ranked lower than my prediction for end of 2022 - in other words I'm predicting she is going to better in 2022 than she did in 2021. That might sound odd given her current ranking but I'm baffled at how Jodie is so highly ranked and been reaching career highs recently when she did no better in 2021 than she did in 2019.

Points from best 16 counters in each year
Name201920202021
Emma Raducanu124*30*2507*
Heather Watson662543*406
Harriet Dart432193*466
Katie Boulter169*81*413
Fran Jones138146*391
Jodie Burrage200102*202
Katie Swan24716*201*
Sam Murray Sharan27585*71*
Sarah Beth Grey3913*183
Naiktha Bains29515*127

* Fewer than 16 tournaments played

__________________


Strong Club Player

Status: Offline
Posts: 490
Date:

I forgot to look in the right place for these prediction competitions before the deadline so missed the boat. But I can see why the overall picture is optimistic from most people as we come on here as we support gb players so want them to do well. We remember players best matches and hope they can reach those levels more consistently. If we think someone has a weakness we hope they can improve it, and this can sometimes move someone's ranking up significantly, especially when young. However, I do also feel reticent about making predictions, I didn't enter last year either, as I often feel quite pessimistic about some players and feel it is rude to predict too low! I can also see why the comment earlier about Emma's ranking for end of 22 is difficult to predict is true. If she doesn't start the year well and doesn't get far in the grand slams in 2022 she could go right down. Having said that the way she played in the us she should have enough opportunities to stay between 50 to 100 anyway. Also, I have very little idea how all the points dropping from 2019 and 2020 will affect various players through the year, surely this year is harder than normal to make predictions?


__________________


Grand Slam Champion

Status: Offline
Posts: 3979
Date:

Oh darn, I missed the deadline, just got back out of holiday mode. I must admit that I've not been following it alot since lockdown as there's been no chance to go to tournaments, but it would have been a good bit of fun. Good luck everyone.


__________________

Face your fears........Live your dreams!



Tennis legend

Status: Offline
Posts: 39427
Date:

Lambda wrote:
Coup Droit wrote:

Interesting that only five are 'pessimistic'.


Five out of twenty-nine.


Natural optimism?



 


I'm one of those that is 'pessimistic', although only just. But I didn't base my selection on the current rankings, but rather mostly on 2021 performance. I suspect when compared against a normal ranking system my selection would be optimistic. We know Heather is significantly over-ranked on the official ranks thanks to her early 2020 success and some tournament wins in 2019 ITFs. My selection also includes Jodie being lower ranked than her current rank, when I suspect on a normal ranking system she would currently be ranked lower than my prediction for end of 2022 - in other words I'm predicting she is going to better in 2022 than she did in 2021. That might sound odd given her current ranking but I'm baffled at how Jodie is so highly ranked and been reaching career highs recently when she did no better in 2021 than she did in 2019.

Points from best 16 counters in each year

Name2019 2020 2021 
Emma Raducanu124*30*2507*
Heather Watson662 543*406 
Harriet Dart432 193*466 
Katie Boulter169*81*413 
Fran Jones138 146*391 
Jodie Burrage200 102*202 
Katie Swan247 16*201*
Sam Murray Sharan275 85*71*
Sarah Beth Grey39 13*183 
Naiktha Bains295 15*127 


* Fewer than 16 tournaments played


 I think there are reasons, particular to Jodie, why she had been maintaining, indeed improving, her ranking without seeimngly doing much of great note of late.

Most particularly she has not dropped any counting points since May when she dropped 25 points ( 1/2 of May 2019 25K title points) .In 2019 she was out injured for 3 months from June to September and didn't do much at all on her return that year. So no second half of 2019 counting points to drop. Also no WTA tournament  counting points in 2020 and no reduction to her ITF tournament points. So everything she has added since May this year ( 101 counting points including 40 in Septembet for a 25K RU ) has increased her counting points tally.

Overall her current 323 points are made up of ;

2019 : 56 ( 3 ITF tournament 50% points )

2020 : 85 ( 5 ITF tournament 100% points )

2021 :  182 ( 8 tournaments )



__________________


Tennis legend

Status: Offline
Posts: 39427
Date:

The OER race figures, by wrongly ( for the official WTA race ) counting WTA 125s and ITFs, basically give us a ranking by 2021 performance.

At 27/12/21 we have the leading 10 Brits as ::

13. Emma 2507
124. Harriet 479
138. Katie B 413
140. Heather 406
144. Fran 391
259. Jodie 202
262. Katie S 201
276. Beth 183
332. Naiktha 127
367. Tara 105

( 11th is Matilda 368. also 105 )

All these points do tie in with Lambda's 2021 points above, other than they have 466 for Harriet against OER's 479.

The 2021 top 10 total is 2055. So indeed a fair bit down on the current rankings top 10 total, mainly due to the 2021 relative performances of Heather, Jodie and Sam ( replaced by Tara ). Beth is the one with the most positive 2021 figure (276) against her current ranking of WR 319. Noticeable indeed is that ranking for Jodie, confirming the feeling that her 2021 wasn't that great in spite of her above discussed climbing WR.

So we would be looking even more optimistic if working against a base top 10 total rankings of 2055 rather than the 1908 ( sum of WRs ) the addict used.



__________________


Futures qualifying

Status: Offline
Posts: 1755
Date:

The difference for Harriet is that I was (or rather the WTA website is) missing off Chicago 500 qualifying points. The annoying thing is I used those OER race to cross-check, but clearly not for Harriet.

__________________


Tennis legend

Status: Offline
Posts: 20074
Date:

Here is the official WTA rankings table for 31st January (lines with no competiton entries are hidden)

Womens Rankings 31-01-2022.JPG



Attachments
__________________


Tennis legend

Status: Offline
Posts: 20074
Date:

And here is the current points table. Strongbow in the lead here as well as in the mens.

Womens Points 31-01-2022.JPG



Attachments
__________________


Tennis legend

Status: Offline
Posts: 35582
Date:

the addict wrote:

And here is the current points table. Strongbow in the lead here as well as in the mens.

Womens Points 31-01-2022.JPG


 I seem to have got a decent points increase, any idea which player gave me a boost, TA?



__________________


Tennis legend

Status: Offline
Posts: 35582
Date:

Was there a Ms Average score in the womens table ?

__________________


Tennis legend

Status: Offline
Posts: 20074
Date:

I'll have a look at your points later JonH.

Mr Average got missed off so I will check the link for next time - remains constant on 46 points.

__________________


Tennis legend

Status: Offline
Posts: 35582
Date:

the addict wrote:

I'll have a look at your points later JonH.

Mr Average got missed off so I will check the link for next time - remains constant on 46 points.


 No worries - I just wasnt expecting any points increase as most of my guessses are still miles off!



__________________


Tennis legend

Status: Offline
Posts: 20074
Date:

Well spotted JonH - there was an error in the spreadsheet link copying the starting scores across. You've actually gone from 44 to 43 !

__________________


Tennis legend

Status: Offline
Posts: 35582
Date:

the addict wrote:

Well spotted JonH - there was an error in the spreadsheet link copying the starting scores across. You've actually gone from 44 to 43 !


 Ha, still surprised me! 

kundalini doubles their points, impressive start ! 



__________________
«First  <  15 6 7 8 912  >  Last»  | Page of 12  sorted by
 
Quick Reply

Please log in to post quick replies.

Tweet this page Post to Digg Post to Del.icio.us


Create your own FREE Forum
Report Abuse
Powered by ActiveBoard