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Post Info TOPIC: 2022 Women's Ranking Prediction Competition


Tennis legend

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2022 Women's Ranking Prediction Competition


I hadn't posted Mr Average yet, as the rankings change with each new entry. But here is the latest (unchecked) - excluding emmsie and sliced backhands's entries.

Emma Raducanu   1  28
Katie Boulter         2  97
Harriet Dart          3  106
Heather Watson   4  120
Francesca Jones  5  137
Katie Swan          6  170
Jodie Burrage      7  175
Sarah Beth Grey  8  273
Matilda Mutavdzic 9  282
Nalktha Bains       10  302 (only 8 picks)

Sonay Kartel       11  375

Edit: Updated after checking entries and adding two late ones.



-- Edited by the addict on Sunday 2nd of January 2022 04:46:26 PM

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Tennis legend

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Interesting, Ace....

I've also been rather sceptical of Fran.

And I'm not ashamed of it as such, but it's rather sensitive in that it's basically a discrimination thing....

I just can't help thinking that anyone who has had THAT many wrist operations in her youth has a very high chance of future wrist problems. And having seen her hands close up, I honestly can't help thinking it's also very likely - she herself says she has to grip the racket SO tightly because her palm is so much narrower - the mechanical stresses that must cause do my head in....

BUT I'm no doctor!!! AND not in charge of funding. So I don't really have to analyse my doubts, I just factor in a higher than normal chance of injury time out, in my view.

I also have seen Naiktha play live a couple of times and been SO unimpressed that again, it colours my judgement (coz she obviously doesn't play that badly overall).



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Tennis legend

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Thanks TA. I wasn't pushing for you to post that by the way, but happy you have, it was more just in response to ST's post, and whether I had missed something smile



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Tennis legend

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No problem. When I have finished checking my spreadsheet I'll update Mr Average. Each new entry varies the WR prediction by a handful of places, but doesn't really change the order with that number of entries.

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Futures qualifying

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Regarding Mr Average, my comment was based on my perception that in previous years it has performed well. I've often thought it interesting that our combined efforts actually arrive at a pretty decent result.

Regarding Naiktha I didn't pick her because almost half of her counters are carried over from 2019 and her form last year wasn't that great. Her best counter from 2021 is the 20 points for winning a single match in Wimbledon qualifying.

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SuperT wrote:

I think the main advantage of entering late isn't the odd result this morning, but the fact that you could base your picks on Mr Average who tends to do rather well in this competition. Not that I'm suggesting for one moment that either sliced backhand or emmsie has done this.


 I wish I'd had the time to think about it. I was supposed to have 30th to 4th off and it looks like instead I'll end up working from 27th straight through to 8th so I literally went through the rankings list in 5 mins I totally forgot about Sonay, suspect Frans result today was a 1st day of term blip and chucked Freya in as my gurl come good pick.



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Tennis legend

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There are a handful of people who didn't include a sub. I will allow them to add one if they wish over the next couple of days.

I have edited my post above for Mr Average, having checked the entries and added in the two late ones.

Initial tables to follow later - I'm going to watch the football now !

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Lower Club Player

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Thanks for allowing my late entry and to those who supported it!



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Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

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Fran's 2021 record was:

25 wins 5 losses against opponents ranked outside the top 200. 9 of her wins and 2 losses came in 3 sets.

4 wins 7 losses against 101 to 200. 4 of those losses in 3 sets

1 win 8 losses against top 100. All her losses in straight sets.

She already does very well on clay at 60k and 80k level so little room for improvement there. If she opts to play a tougher schedule, there's not much evidence right now, to suggest she'd be competitive.

Of course, with very clever scheduling, there are opportunities to gain big points at higher level tournaments with weaker fields. Some of the clay WTA 125s for instance.

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Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

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Where does the optimism regarding Katie Swan come from ?

Her end of year ranking for the last 5 years: 236, 267, 240, 176, 299. Begu was absolutely terrible when Katie beat her at Wimbledon, the only season she's finished inside the top 200

She did really well to qualify at Wimbledon in 2021, other than that, she benefited from retirements during her autumn 25k title.

I wonder if she's suited to the physical and emotional demands of life on tour.

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Tennis legend

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Here's the starting table, with a measure of how optimistic people are compared to the current top ten total of 1908. Being optimistic or pessimistic doesn't seem to affect the points !

Womens 2022 Start Table.JPG



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Tennis legend

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Interesting that only five are 'pessimistic'.

Five out of twenty-nine.

Natural optimism?

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Tennis legend

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kundalini wrote:

Where does the optimism regarding Katie Swan come from ?

Her end of year ranking for the last 5 years: 236, 267, 240, 176, 299. Begu was absolutely terrible when Katie beat her at Wimbledon, the only season she's finished inside the top 200

She did really well to qualify at Wimbledon in 2021, other than that, she benefited from retirements during her autumn 25k title.

I wonder if she's suited to the physical and emotional demands of life on tour.


 I'm not a mega Katie fan but I think the argument would be that (a) she's pretty young (only 22, so a lot of upside, a long way from her 'peak') (b) has had big injury problems (so if she's not injured, there's a lot of upside), and (c) was a very promising youngster, which might not be convincing but bodes well. 

Doesn't seem unreasonable.....  



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Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

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Coup Droit wrote:
kundalini wrote:

Where does the optimism regarding Katie Swan come from ?

Her end of year ranking for the last 5 years: 236, 267, 240, 176, 299. Begu was absolutely terrible when Katie beat her at Wimbledon, the only season she's finished inside the top 200

She did really well to qualify at Wimbledon in 2021, other than that, she benefited from retirements during her autumn 25k title.

I wonder if she's suited to the physical and emotional demands of life on tour.


 I'm not a mega Katie fan but I think the argument would be that (a) she's pretty young (only 22, so a lot of upside, a long way from her 'peak') (b) has had big injury problems (so if she's not injured, there's a lot of upside), and (c) was a very promising youngster, which might not be convincing but bodes well. 

Doesn't seem unreasonable.....  


 It does sound reasonable and written a couple of years ago I'd have been convinced. Anyway, I never saw Harriet's leap from 300 to 150 coming so perhaps Katie will be in the same category. 



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Tennis legend

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As well as physical injuries, Katie has documented mental issues she has had to deal with.

I do think there is still a lot of potential upside to Katie's rankings if things can become more settled on all levels.

Whether this will be the year she gets back on ourse we will see. I went WR 164 and I can see a big possible range either side of that figure.



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