Week 26 - Wimbledon - London (grass) - women's main draw

telstar · Strong Club Player

RE: Week 26 - Wimbledon - London (grass) - women's main draw

LordBrownof · Futures level

I love Heather but unless she does something really different she's holding on to the top 60 for as long as she can. Agree with everything else although I do wanna throw Katie S in there. Whilst she was outclassed by Maddy - and who hasn't been at some point - she has a better top-level than a Harriet for me. So fitness aside, I think she could join a Joko, Emma, Katie B and Heather in the top 100.

All we need now is a top-level week in week out dubs specialist and we could be a contender for the BJK Cup

kundalini · Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

JonH comes home wrote:
indiana wrote:
paulisi wrote:
brendan wrote:
Bold prediction: British number 1 within the next 12 months
I think you might be getting carried away ther.
She has always had the potential to be top 100, just exams meaning she has not played that much.

I suspect Katie Boulter, if she can remain fit, will challenge Jo and Hev for GB no.1
I wouldn't at all discount it myself. Produce this after so short a full time focus ...
Wouldn't it just be great if Jo and Katie B can find sustained firness and Heather more consistent belief. All 3 of these plus Emma can be top 100, and we've only had one week this century with 4 in the top 100 ( and the 4th was WR 100 ) in Bally, Anne, Heather and Laura. That probably won't all come together but some of it please.
GB number 1 in 12 months could be any of Jo, Heather, Katie B or Emma.
I think Heather will only get to #1 if JoKo falls back a long way - and that wont be a good thing! In a year, hard to see Heather being higher than now, hope i am wrong. I hope Jo can maintain a top 50 ranking and if she does think that will be enough. Katie can make top 100 in next 12 months for sure, maybe push the top 60-70, Emma could also push the top 100 but I see Jo being top in 12 months time

The most recent episode of the Tennis Podcast features Dan Evans sending David Law texts before and during the match, predicting Raducanu beating Cirstea and an audio clip of Dan explaining why he was so confident (Battle of the Brits), as well as predicting Emma to beat Tomljanovic. The Podcast team also relayed the thoughts of Billie Jean King, who they had dinner with on Saturday evening and watched the football. BJK apparently wildly enthusiastic about Emma. Catherine Whitaker made the sensible point that we don't know how well Raducanu will deal with the less glamorous tournaments, as she makes her way up the rankings.

Brendan's bold prediction of Emma becoming British number 1 within the next 12 months is nothing compared to Billie Jean King's view. Personally, I don't agree with the "bold" element. It seems to me to be the most likely scenario, though other scenarios are possible, especially with so many tournaments being cancelled.

Watching her post match press conference, Emma comes across as being excited by her tennis adventure.

-- Edited by kundalini on Sunday 4th of July 2021 04:57:41 AM

RedSquirrel · Satellite level

indiana wrote:

paulisi wrote:
brendan wrote:
Bold prediction: British number 1 within the next 12 months
I think you might be getting carried away ther.
She has always had the potential to be top 100, just exams meaning she has not played that much.

I suspect Katie Boulter, if she can remain fit, will challenge Jo and Hev for GB no.1
I wouldn't at all discount it myself. Produce this after so short a full time focus ...
Wouldn't it just be great if Jo and Katie B can find sustained firness and Heather more consistent belief. All 3 of these plus Emma can be top 100, and we've only had one week this century with 4 in the top 100 ( and the 4th was WR 100 ) in Bally, Anne, Heather and Laura. That probably won't all come together but some of it please.
GB number 1 in 12 months could be any of Jo, Heather, Katie B or Emma.

I agree its a possibility for Emma to be GB#1 but only because the top 2 fall away and if she wins the next round. The live race is
67 Jo 487 pts
110 Heather 276 pts
112 Katie B 275 pts
116 Emma 269 pts
134 Harriet 216 pts

Were Emma to win the next round, which will depend on which Tomljanovic turns up, Emma would be on 459 race pts, not far behind Jo.

In the overall rankings, Jo has a lot of points dropping over the next quarter that are unlikely to be defended in full: Cincinnati SF 350, US Open QF 450, Indian Wells 65pts and definitely dropping is Rome 2020 105 pts replaced by Rome 2021 1pt.
She does have a 2019 Rabat final counter that is seeming unlikely to drop this year, but should've dropped by this time next year and 2020 Monterrey SF points to keep into next year. So Jo's ranking will depend heavily on how she does during the US swing.

Emma on the other hand is defending very little 51pts at the end of the year being the biggest counter. Her points are from only 11 counters. Leaving 5 counters spare to add to her ranking. With her being able to get into W60 to W100 with ease now and likely to be able to get into WTA Qs she should start to be able to get bigger points than the few on offer at W25 level for her to build her ranking quickly with those 5 spare counters.

Emma will almost certainly be GB#3 within a year, probably by the end of the year. She will probably be GB#2 before the grass season next year, and has an outside chance of being GB#1, but that is dependent on how Jo performs and how many of her points Jo can defend.

Priesty · Challenger level

E-Rad is third on court 1 tomorrow. Unless the 2 previous games are over quickly (which seems unlikely) I'm not likely to see much as am out for a friend's birthday, meal planned for 6pm. Bah humbug cry bleh

emmsie69 · Top national player

telstar wrote:
dodrade wrote:
the addict wrote:
May 22nd - British Tour - Emma lost to Katherine Barnes
Two months later .................

What a match !
Barnes probably watching and thinking that could have been me!
Probably could have been-but only if there wasn't an umpire!

Are you throwing a bit of shade there biggrin

the addict · Tennis legend

Peter too wrote:
R32: RADUCANU, Emma (GBR) WC 336 def CIRSTEA, Sorana (ROM) 45 6-3 7-5

R16: RADUCANU, Emma (GBR) WC 336 (CH=333 2020) v TOMLJANOVIC, Ajla (AUS) 75 (CH=39 2019)

Bumping this from a few pages back....

HarryGem · Club Coach

On the middle Sunday I have to say I'm feeling more upbeat than I thought I would be. There's been some definite huge positives as well as some downers.

In the Negative category
Have to put Jo's very unfortunate pre-tournament withdrawal into this group though not her fault at all it certainly was a big disappointment.

Jodie. Sorry, but her performance was poor and a waste of a WC. Should have been made to qualify.

Heather. No disguising a poor first round result.

In the Neutral category

Sam. Deserving a WC? Not an unexpected result really.
Harriet. Tough first round draw but her perfomance was average I thought.

In the Plus category

Katie S May not have got past R1 but did a great job in qualifying and the points and cash picked up will be useful.

Fran A very tough draw but acquited herself better than I expected. Not sure how far she can go but obviously has great deal of determintation and that will help her a lot.

Katie B An expected R1 win but her R2 perfomance was excellent and she had a chance to win it but for Sabalenka's excellent serving. If she can stay fit she has the game to be top 100 quite easily.

Emma Truly wonderful tournament. Not only has she won three matches but her level of play has been excellent. It won't be easy but she does have a genuine shot in the next round.

HarryGem · Club Coach

RedSquirrel wrote:
indiana wrote:

paulisi wrote:
brendan wrote:
Bold prediction: British number 1 within the next 12 months
I think you might be getting carried away ther.
She has always had the potential to be top 100, just exams meaning she has not played that much.

I suspect Katie Boulter, if she can remain fit, will challenge Jo and Hev for GB no.1
I wouldn't at all discount it myself. Produce this after so short a full time focus ...
Wouldn't it just be great if Jo and Katie B can find sustained firness and Heather more consistent belief. All 3 of these plus Emma can be top 100, and we've only had one week this century with 4 in the top 100 ( and the 4th was WR 100 ) in Bally, Anne, Heather and Laura. That probably won't all come together but some of it please.
GB number 1 in 12 months could be any of Jo, Heather, Katie B or Emma.

I agree its a possibility for Emma to be GB#1 but only because the top 2 fall away and if she wins the next round. The live race is
67 Jo 487 pts
110 Heather 276 pts
112 Katie B 275 pts
116 Emma 269 pts
134 Harriet 216 pts

Were Emma to win the next round, which will depend on which Tomljanovic turns up, Emma would be on 459 race pts, not far behind Jo.

In the overall rankings, Jo has a lot of points dropping over the next quarter that are unlikely to be defended in full: Cincinnati SF 350, US Open QF 450, Indian Wells 65pts and definitely dropping is Rome 2020 105 pts replaced by Rome 2021 1pt.
She does have a 2019 Rabat final counter that is seeming unlikely to drop this year, but should've dropped by this time next year and 2020 Monterrey SF points to keep into next year. So Jo's ranking will depend heavily on how she does during the US swing.

Emma on the other hand is defending very little 51pts at the end of the year being the biggest counter. Her points are from only 11 counters. Leaving 5 counters spare to add to her ranking. With her being able to get into W60 to W100 with ease now and likely to be able to get into WTA Qs she should start to be able to get bigger points than the few on offer at W25 level for her to build her ranking quickly with those 5 spare counters.

Emma will almost certainly be GB#3 within a year, probably by the end of the year. She will probably be GB#2 before the grass season next year, and has an outside chance of being GB#1, but that is dependent on how Jo performs and how many of her points Jo can defend.

I think it is quite hard to predict anything to do with accurate rankings for as long as the current covid situation continues. I agree it looks unlikely that Jo will be able to or indeed chose to defend all those points. Worst case scenario could see Jo lose around 800-900 points which would drop her down in all likelihood into the 70s or 80s. Obviously we hope she will perform better than that but I don't think it is a given.

Heather is also sitting on a lot of points she hasn't had to defend but on this year's form would probably have not defended them all. Possibly 300-400 points? Again if this happened she would drop into the 80s-90s range.

So a great chance for Katie B who doesn't have points to defend to climb the rankings. However, a year is a long time and with covid still likely to be affecting the game next year too I think it is hard to predict who could be GB No.1 this time next year.

Emma has done really well this week but there are a lot of people getting a bit carried away right now. Let's see how the next round goes and once Wimbledon is over let's see how she gets on in a small tournamenst overseas with few spectators and different kinds of pressure. Plus, right now, she is a surprise package. Very few opponents will know very much about her game in depth. Over the next 12 months they will be working out how to play her and things will get more difficult.

I'm not sure I see any of our other GB ladies challenging to to be GB No.1 unless there is a catastrophic collapse/retirements from the current top 2 or injuries to Katie B.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Yes, HarryGem, I agree about the upbeat feeling (two messages above), and posted a similar resumé in wildcards, I think.

It's been a very good week, compared with most Wimblys, I reckon. And has a nice, feel-good feeling.

Hev's result (and play) was more than 'poor', though, it was dire, truly awful

And most certainly the low point of the whole lot (yes, Jodie's performance was pretty weak but her ranking was a long way outside, unlike Heather, who has no excuse)

BUT, as you say, the rest were either reasonably good or very good Or excellent ! And counting....

And, to add, Hev & Harriet have had a very good run so far, in the doubles, making the last 16.

Beth and Emily WS's, though, was a real heart-breaker - but at least they were SO close (and not often I watch two sets of women's doubles !)

Sam and hubby's loss was a bit the same but at least they got a win in R1 and will have enjoyed that.

Indeed, wins for our 'older' players, such as Naomi and Tara (and Sam), in the mixed doubles, makes me happy. And the fact that so many at least had a play.

-- Edited by Coup Droit on Sunday 4th of July 2021 08:14:28 AM

Helen40 · Grand Slam Champion

I wonder with Emma whether she'll play more now. I know she's hardly played in the last few years - covid aside.

She still had a presence when I saw her in the Wirral, but yes, who knows if she's in the grind of the bubbled tour. However, I suspect she's likely to get the odd WC now, so she might bypass quite a lot of the grind.

RedSquirrel · Satellite level

Helen40 wrote:

I wonder with Emma whether she'll play more now. I know she's hardly played in the last few years - covid aside.

She still had a presence when I saw her in the Wirral, but yes, who knows if she's in the grind of the bubbled tour. However, I suspect she's likely to get the odd WC now, so she might bypass quite a lot of the grind.

She's entered into a very weak 60K after Wimbledon (with the Katies) and will be seeded 1 or 2 despite currently being the last non JE direct entry. Then shes entered into a couple of tournaments the week after, but I suspect she may head off to the US instead to prepare for the US swing. I think her team will be rethinking her schedule now she is unexpectedly in US Open quals.

emmsie69 · Top national player

It does show what a huge benefit having a home grand slam is, get a good run and boom, not only do you slash your ranking but that in turn then results in qualifying for bigger tournaments thereby making it easier again to improve a ranking. Obviously a player still has to get the results at the big tournaments but still, huge advantage in some ways. Another win and Emma goes from outside of US open qualifying pre Wimbledon to a potential seeding.

-- Edited by emmsie69 on Sunday 4th of July 2021 09:02:40 AM

GAMEOVER · Satellite level

LordBrownof wrote:
I love Heather but unless she does something really different she's holding on to the top 60 for as long as she can. Agree with everything else although I do wanna throw Katie S in there. Whilst she was outclassed by Maddy - and who hasn't been at some point - she has a better top-level than a Harriet for me. So fitness aside, I think she could join a Joko, Emma, Katie B and Heather in the top 100.

All we need now is a top-level week in week out dubs specialist and we could be a contender for the BJK Cup

For BJK Cup purposes surely Harriet and Heather are a good enough combination. Certainly our best combination at Wimbledon. We could have Emma and Katie B in the singles .JoKo gives the impression that she has given up wanting to play in the BJK Cup.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Helen40 wrote:
I wonder with Emma whether she'll play more now. I know she's hardly played in the last few years - covid aside.

She still had a presence when I saw her in the Wirral, but yes, who knows if she's in the grind of the bubbled tour. However, I suspect she's likely to get the odd WC now, so she might bypass quite a lot of the grind.

Emma was clear in one of her interviews that she intended to pursue professional tennis (which is no surprise!) so she certainly will be playing more, now that exams and studies are finished and travel is becoming more open.

Agree with RS that her team will be re-evaluating her schedule, given her new ranking (and counting). And with emmsie - God bless having a Grand Slam (or even a tip-top ATP/WTA event). And the benefit of wildcards. Given that men are generally a couple of years behind the women, this could be Jack or Anton, Arthur or Felix, next year or the year after (or anyone else who feels like joining the party).