have they closed? - we normally allow some leeway...

Thanks for the summary which is always interesting to see. I think the biggest surprise here is that 9 people don't think Katy Dunne will be in the top 10 this year. She does seem to have found her level in the 200s and there's nothing to suggest she'll make a huge improvement this year (although we always hope) but she loves playing, will obviously carry on with a full schedule again, and I think it would be something of a miracle if 3 of the youngsters with virtually no WTA ranking under the new system manage to oust her.

SuperT wrote:

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Thanks for the summary which is always interesting to see. I think the biggest surprise here is that 9 people don't think Katy Dunne will be in the top 10 this year. She does seem to have found her level in the 200s and there's nothing to suggest she'll make a huge improvement this year (although we always hope) but she loves playing, will obviously carry on with a full schedule again, and I think it would be something of a miracle if 3 of the youngsters with virtually no WTA ranking under the new system manage to oust her.

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I did have Katy in my top 10, but I also had her outside the top 300, which quite a lot of others did as well. She may well pick up points in the coming weeks, but she's also defending 25k final points next month and ended the season 4-12 with 8 first round exits in her last 11 tournaments, despite being a seed in 6 of those 8. That isn't very encouraging and the -30 coming off Perth (if nothing significant was added) would take her down to around the 300 mark.

She was ranked 212 going into the grass period last year which was enough to get her into some ITF main draws, Eastbourne quals directly and a QWC for Birmingham, but a potential late 200 / early 300 ranking would mean she would struggle to do so this year, and would the 'powers that be' rather give a wildcard to a 24 and a half year old, perhaps going back over (this is all hypothetical and subjective mind, she could well be back to circa 220) or someone much younger like Fran, Emma, Ali, Jodie, Maia, even Freya if she showed some sort of form in the run up, a possible returning big name in Laura as well as any other surprise, out of the blue Jan Choinski's? Also SW19 as well - hopefully Katie B, Hev and even Harriet will be in the main draw by right, but if not, when you consider the grass ITF event winners, Swiatek, the aforementioned youngsters, Katie S and Gabi - you'd think it would be a QWC. 

As I say, Katy may surprise and get back to where she was 7 or 8 months ago, and hopefully she does, but I think a lot may be in the same opinion as me, they just have more faith in the youngsters to really make their mark this year (Jodie, Fran, Maia, Emma), knock a hundred + off their ranking and surpass her.

Ace Ventura wrote:

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SuperT wrote:

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Thanks for the summary which is always interesting to see. I think the biggest surprise here is that 9 people don't think Katy Dunne will be in the top 10 this year. She does seem to have found her level in the 200s and there's nothing to suggest she'll make a huge improvement this year (although we always hope) but she loves playing, will obviously carry on with a full schedule again, and I think it would be something of a miracle if 3 of the youngsters with virtually no WTA ranking under the new system manage to oust her.

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I did have Katy in my top 10, but I also had her outside the top 300, which quite a lot of others did as well. She may well pick up points in the coming weeks, but she's also defending 25k final points next month and ended the season 4-12 with 8 first round exits in her last 11 tournaments, despite being a seed in 6 of those 8. That isn't very encouraging and the -30 coming off Perth (if nothing significant was added) would take her down to around the 300 mark.

She was ranked 212 going into the grass period last year which was enough to get her into some ITF main draws, Eastbourne quals directly and a QWC for Birmingham, but a potential late 200 / early 300 ranking would mean she would struggle to do so this year, and would the 'powers that be' rather give a wildcard to a 24 and a half year old, perhaps going back over (this is all hypothetical and subjective mind, she could well be back to circa 220) or someone much younger like Fran, Emma, Ali, Jodie, Maia, even Freya if she showed some sort of form in the run up, a possible returning big name in Laura as well as any other surprise, out of the blue Jan Choinski's? Also SW19 as well - hopefully Katie B, Hev and even Harriet will be in the main draw by right, but if not, when you consider the grass ITF event winners, Swiatek, the aforementioned youngsters, Katie S and Gabi - you'd think it would be a QWC. 

As I say, Katy may surprise and get back to where she was 7 or 8 months ago, and hopefully she does, but I think a lot may be in the same opinion as me, they just have more faith in the youngsters to really make their mark this year (Jodie, Fran, Maia, Emma), knock a hundred + off their ranking and surpass her.

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Yes you're right Ace. I left Katy out of my listed top 10 essentially because I don't see a likely upside to her this year (though would love to be proved wrong), and instead listed in my top 10 those I think will have at least a reasonable, if not good upside. I however said that I still think that Katy was likely to be in the top 10 but I wasn't listing her for that reason. CD similarly said he was leaving her out for 'tactical' reasons, which is essentially the same point. If Katy can develop another gear that would be a lovely surprise, but she does need to find this something extra to her game if she is to progress this year.  

Andy Parker wrote:

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The hardest person to predict for me was Naomi Broady, as she could just as easily retire completely, as return to better form and a higher ranking.

I have said many times that I think Naomi has never properly fulfilled her huge potential and could easily have been a top 50 player, but her results towards the end of the season have been pretty dire and she has been really shooting down the rankings and I feel it is a real crossroads time for her - some good results and she will be back in the top 200 and aiming to re-find her form, but a few bad ones, and like one or two other people have predicted, then she may well quit tennis altogether.  Which way will it go - too tough to call for me.

I think it could well be a year of retirements - Laura's injuries have really taken their toll and although she is giving rehab time to try and get her body back together, she can't be many setbacks away from quitting, and after a long time being under-appreciated and now gradually falling down the rankings, I think Tara Moore may well retire soon, too. 

For me it feels like a gradual changing of the guard is taking place and maybe in a couple of years time, our top three will be Katie B, Katie Swan and Harriet, with lots of other players like Francesca and Maia also coming through. We have more strength in depth than at any time since I started to really follow tennis (and that is more than 40 years now) - I'm not sure how or why it is happening now, but we should feel positively exhilarated by so many players improving their rankings. Happy days.

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 The thing that made me imagine Naomi is ready to retire was hearing her radio commentary for which she showed a natural aptitude and was a breath of fresh air, and with all due respect I look forward to her pursuing that far more than the hapless performances of the last year or two.

-- Edited by brendan on Wednesday 2nd of January 2019 01:58:34 AM

Hi all

Am I too late this year? Just in case I'm not and have a chance to improve upon mid-table obscurity last year, here are my predictions:

Konta - 35
Boulter - 85
Dart - 95
Watson - 110
Swan - 120
Taylor - 130
Dunne - 200
Lumsden - 260
Carreras - 320
Raducanu - 350

I hope I am not too late to enter my predictions - been busy moving house.

1. Joko 23
2. Katie B 76
3. Harriet 98
4. Hev 110
5. Naomi 160
6. Gabi 165
7. Katie S 170
8. Jodie 240
9. Laura 260
10. Mandy 320