2019 female prediction rankings

Sim · County player

2019 female prediction rankings

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Hi Sim, I picked Eden Silva (probably wrongly but hey.....)

She doesn't seem to be there....

Canda · Junior player

Also Jodie is missing.

Thanks Sim for organising this competition again.

Peter too · Tennis legend

It would be interesting to see how someone with the average values would do as an entry at the end of the year. Does "the wisdom of the crowds" hold for a competition like this?

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Peter too wrote:
It would be interesting to see how someone with the average values would do as an entry at the end of the year. Does "the wisdom of the crowds" hold for a competition like this?

We've had a status quo entrant for the past couple of years which I find interesting - just everyone at today's rankings effectively. SQ always does reasonably.

brendan · Strong Club Player

Sim wrote:
Few more stats from the entries.
You are an optimistic lot predicting rises in ranking for everyone apart from Hev who is only predicted to slip 2 places.
The stats for players with only a few picks can be misleading as the people who didn't pick them probably has them at a lower ranking
Amanda Carreras has a dummy ranking of 999
The highest ranked player not to be picked by anyone is Alicia Barnett at GB 13
Picks Average High Low Actual +/-

Jo Konta 45 24 7 90 37 13
Heather Watson 45 93 48 150 91 -2
Katie Boulter 45 69 46 112 97 28
Harriet Dart 45 96 70 160 149 53
Katie Swan 45 109 86 170 176 67
Gabriella Taylor 45 149 75 257 187 38
Naomi Broady 30 207 134 340 250 43
Katy Dunne 37 239 164 330 260 21
Maia Lumsden 32 253 180 324 307 55
Francesca Jones 29 291 190 370 476 185
Laura Robson 14 200 125 360 493 293
Sam Murray 1 366 366 366 568 202
Emma Raducanu 18 242 150 350 624 382
Amanda Carreras 6 173 200 320 999 826

-- Edited by Sim on Friday 4th of January 2019 06:22:36 PM

How is Amanda's average higher than her highest prediction?

the addict · Tennis legend

Mandy's average is a typo - I make it 273

I also have 2 for Eden, 1 for Freya and 10 for Jodie on my list. But my list has typos as well ;)

vohor · Grand Slam Champion

Jaggy1876 wrote:
vohor wrote:
Too slow to catch a cold, me :(
Last year Katie B exceeded my optimism; here's hoping for more exceeders this year!

1. Jo 16
2. Katie B 48
3. Heather 55
4. Gabi 75
5. Harriet 85
6. Katie S 95
7. Laura 125
8. Jodie 145
9. Katy 175
10. Emma 195
Would you have Harriet that high had you submitted on time? Thought not.

Short answer? Yes! I did not know Harriet's week 1 results when submitting. I haven't had time to follow tennis much these past few weeks, hence missing the deadline.

Happy New Year, Jaggy smile

Sim · County player

Canda wrote:
Also Jodie is missing.
Thanks Sim for organising this competition again.

Woops for some reason those rows were hidden. Both Eden and Jodie are in

Sim · County player

Tables are now online here:

http://www.britishtennis.net/predictions/2019%20Female%20Ranking%20predictions.htm

Please check for any errors!

indiana · Tennis legend

Peter too wrote:
It would be interesting to see how someone with the average values would do as an entry at the end of the year. Does "the wisdom of the crowds" hold for a competition like this?

As CD says the simple "Status Quo" entry has generally done pretty well and I would think would have beaten an average value entry in recent years so our collective "wisdom" is very questionable.

Re "wisdom of the crowds" I recall old Ratty suggesting it applied and I disagree. Our competition lacks some important independent elements generally required statistically in "wisdom of the crowd".

1) it doesn't take much effort to locate patterns of a wee bit of following the few entries in front of particular ones or if not the immediate prior entries maybe some are influenced by the previous entries as a whole. It would really need to be independent entries, not knowing the others.

2) also even if acting independently of other entries, we know to various degrees these players and generally want them to do well. Some entrants openly admit they are probably being over optimistic and even for these really trying to be absolutely unbiased, trying to win the contest, it is probably still difficult to put all preferences about players aside.

Michael D · All-time great

Yeah, some of us just add in favourites that's for sure!

Miriambee · Futures level

Sim, this is trivial, but there is in the blue list initials EC, and no ER for Emma Radacanu. Not wanting you or anyone to be confused at a later date.

Sim · County player

Miriambee wrote:
Sim, this is trivial, but there is in the blue list initials EC, and no ER for Emma Radacanu. Not wanting you or anyone to be confused at a later date.

Thanks corrected

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

Ace Ventura wrote:
Konta 33
Boulter 82
Watson 108
Dart 121
Swan 149
G Taylor 177
N Broady 248
Dunne 307
Jones 315
Lumsden 323

-- Edited by Ace Ventura on Monday 31st of December 2018 12:26:18 PM

So, into the 4th month of the season and moving on to the clay (or probably rather hard ITFs), how are people feeling about their picks at this stage? I can't believe I didn't include Jodie in mine, she's probably on course to end 5th or 6th, yet somehow didn't even make my top 10. Think I'd have her in for Fran and maybe got Gabi's ranking a bit too high, but still early days and more high and lows to come.