Week 26 - Wimbledon - London (grass) - women's main draw

emmsie69 · Top national player

Week 26 - Wimbledon - London (grass) - women's main draw

indiana · Tennis legend

RedSquirrel wrote:
indiana wrote:

paulisi wrote:
brendan wrote:
Bold prediction: British number 1 within the next 12 months
I think you might be getting carried away ther.
She has always had the potential to be top 100, just exams meaning she has not played that much.

I suspect Katie Boulter, if she can remain fit, will challenge Jo and Hev for GB no.1
I wouldn't at all discount it myself. Produce this after so short a full time focus ...
Wouldn't it just be great if Jo and Katie B can find sustained firness and Heather more consistent belief. All 3 of these plus Emma can be top 100, and we've only had one week this century with 4 in the top 100 ( and the 4th was WR 100 ) in Bally, Anne, Heather and Laura. That probably won't all come together but some of it please.
GB number 1 in 12 months could be any of Jo, Heather, Katie B or Emma.

I agree its a possibility for Emma to be GB#1 but only because the top 2 fall away and if she wins the next round. The live race is
67 Jo 487 pts
110 Heather 276 pts
112 Katie B 275 pts
116 Emma 269 pts
134 Harriet 216 pts

Were Emma to win the next round, which will depend on which Tomljanovic turns up, Emma would be on 459 race pts, not far behind Jo.

In the overall rankings, Jo has a lot of points dropping over the next quarter that are unlikely to be defended in full: Cincinnati SF 350, US Open QF 450, Indian Wells 65pts and definitely dropping is Rome 2020 105 pts replaced by Rome 2021 1pt.
She does have a 2019 Rabat final counter that is seeming unlikely to drop this year, but should've dropped by this time next year and 2020 Monterrey SF points to keep into next year. So Jo's ranking will depend heavily on how she does during the US swing.

Emma on the other hand is defending very little 51pts at the end of the year being the biggest counter. Her points are from only 11 counters. Leaving 5 counters spare to add to her ranking. With her being able to get into W60 to W100 with ease now and likely to be able to get into WTA Qs she should start to be able to get bigger points than the few on offer at W25 level for her to build her ranking quickly with those 5 spare counters.

Emma will almost certainly be GB#3 within a year, probably by the end of the year. She will probably be GB#2 before the grass season next year, and has an outside chance of being GB#1, but that is dependent on how Jo performs and how many of her points Jo can defend.

I'd say this could be just as much, if not ultimately more, to do with further points Emma may well gain beyond Wimbledon as players' points coming off ( though Jo's are clearly are very relevant ). And winning the next round here, while helpful, is far from needed in the possible Emma GB #1 within 12 months scenario. While I really don't want to overhype ( and don't think I am doing so ) I think her own now much more focus on practice and tournanent play can get her there within 12 months.

Indeed ultimately as the rankings hopefully more sort themselves out, with many fewer covid counters from more than a year before. the GB #1 within 12 months will very probably be the GB player that has won most points in the previous 12 months. And for the 12 months to the start of Wimbledon 2022 Emma is establishing quite an early lead, with excitedly who knows what to come.

-- Edited by indiana on Sunday 4th of July 2021 12:07:35 PM

brendan · Strong Club Player

kundalini wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
indiana wrote:
paulisi wrote:
brendan wrote:
Bold prediction: British number 1 within the next 12 months
I think you might be getting carried away ther.
She has always had the potential to be top 100, just exams meaning she has not played that much.

I suspect Katie Boulter, if she can remain fit, will challenge Jo and Hev for GB no.1
I wouldn't at all discount it myself. Produce this after so short a full time focus ...
Wouldn't it just be great if Jo and Katie B can find sustained firness and Heather more consistent belief. All 3 of these plus Emma can be top 100, and we've only had one week this century with 4 in the top 100 ( and the 4th was WR 100 ) in Bally, Anne, Heather and Laura. That probably won't all come together but some of it please.
GB number 1 in 12 months could be any of Jo, Heather, Katie B or Emma.
I think Heather will only get to #1 if JoKo falls back a long way - and that wont be a good thing! In a year, hard to see Heather being higher than now, hope i am wrong. I hope Jo can maintain a top 50 ranking and if she does think that will be enough. Katie can make top 100 in next 12 months for sure, maybe push the top 60-70, Emma could also push the top 100 but I see Jo being top in 12 months time
The most recent episode of the Tennis Podcast features Dan Evans sending David Law texts before and during the match, predicting Raducanu beating Cirstea and an audio clip of Dan explaining why he was so confident (Battle of the Brits), as well as predicting Emma to beat Tomljanovic. The Podcast team also relayed the thoughts of Billie Jean King, who they had dinner with on Saturday evening and watched the football. BJK apparently wildly enthusiastic about Emma. Catherine Whitaker made the sensible point that we don't know how well Raducanu will deal with the less glamorous tournaments, as she makes her way up the rankings.

Brendan's bold prediction of Emma becoming British number 1 within the next 12 months is nothing compared to Billie Jean King's view. Personally, I don't agree with the "bold" element. It seems to me to be the most likely scenario, though other scenarios are possible, especially with so many tournaments being cancelled.
Watching her post match press conference, Emma comes across as being excited by her tennis adventure.

-- Edited by kundalini on Sunday 4th of July 2021 04:57:41 AM

It was meant as a parody of Vanderbergs wild predictions. It's clearly only a matter of when not if.

TTMan · Intermediate Club Player

Emma's potential to overtake JoKo in the rankings needs to be viewed in the context of Jo not being allowed to defend her Wimbledon points and her 2021 Nottingham title, which she cruised through. Jo could be on the cusp of a revival or she may now be so demotivated by the unfairness of events and injury/Covid issues that she calls it a day. I hope not. Either way, she will have lost momentum. On a level playing field I would pitch Jo's experience over Emma's, as yet, untested potential over the longer term.

Team GB has for some time needed someone solid to back Jo up in the BJK/Fed Cup, we were almost there with Katie B. It may be too late now but Jo with her old form back, Katie B and Emma with Heather and Harriet playing doubles would be a formidable team capable of reaching and staying at the BJK Cup top table. I hope Annie K does her utmost to persuade Jo back on to the team.

-- Edited by TTMan on Sunday 4th of July 2021 01:26:54 PM

-- Edited by TTMan on Sunday 4th of July 2021 01:27:31 PM

Peter too · Tennis legend

On the basis that Emma has got to round 4 of Wimbledon without losing a set, including wins against two top 50 players, and seems to be getting stronger with every match she plays, UK number 1 within 12 months seems a fairly conservative prediction. In the matches before Wimbledon her only WTA match was a loss to Harriet Dart in two. In the ITF Nottingham event that followed she beat players ranked 149 and 112 in two before losing in two close sets to Pironkova ranked 113. So she was clearly knocking on the door of a top 100 ranking but has now upped her game to that of a top 50 player. The only issue seems to be how long it will take her to collect the necessary points, which will depend on getting into the enough high ranking tournaments.

TTMan · Intermediate Club Player

Peter too wrote:
On the basis that Emma has got to round 4 of Wimbledon without losing a set, including wins against two top 50 players, and seems to be getting stronger with every match she plays, UK number 1 within 12 months seems a fairly conservative prediction. In the matches before Wimbledon her only WTA match was a loss to Harriet Dart in two. In the ITF Nottingham event that followed she beat players ranked 149 and 112 in two before losing in two close sets to Pironkova ranked 113. So she was clearly knocking on the door of a top 100 ranking but has now upped her game to that of a top 50 player. The only issue seems to be how long it will take her to collect the necessary points, which will depend on getting into the enough high ranking tournaments.

Yes, we just don't / can't know where either Jo or Emma will be in the next 12 months but for sure, Emma is currently the most promising candidate to replace Jo as the British number 1. Had to happen some time. The big questions are when and how long Jo will want to keep playing. Exciting times for British tennis.

the addict · Tennis legend

Well Emma is now up to GB #4 with 404 points according to the live ranking sites (which pretty much agree for once on rankings and points). She needs to get to over 680 points to reach the top 120 (which could be the target for USO direct entry to the main draw), or over 815 points which is the current #100. In contrast Jo is on 1727 points (or 1728 depending which site you look at) but she will drop more than 1000 points before the USO. So Emma needs a few good tournaments still, but the gap could close pretty quickly.

In between them at the moment are Heather (WR69/1166 points) and Harriet (WR165 and 452 points).

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

I wonder what Joanna Garland is thinking of all this? She's 16 months older than Emma, was about 170 ranking places lower (before this weeks) and far less promising IMO, but they've obviously had junior battles in the past, no less than at Wimbledon a few years ago (something Emma referenced a couple of days ago). She will have seen Emma get a WC for Nottm W100, something she probably could have had, probably would have been in line for a Wimbledon QWC (especially with some not being used), also with a chance for that to be boosted to a full MDWC, if she got a result or two on the grass, but while Emma is generating stories, and creating buzz left, right and centre, and an astonishing 240 ranking points from one event alone, she's has finally returned to the tour herself, and has made 10 points from 3 ITF events in as many weeks (although she did actually put out the #241 top seed in R1 of a W25, before bowing out in R2).

She's probably perfectly happy representing Taiwan, and to continue to do so, but there's surely got to be a bit of a 'what if' scenario lurking somewhere.

dodrade · Futures qualifying

Ace Ventura wrote:
I wonder what Joanna Garland is thinking of all this? She's 16 months older than Emma, was about 170 ranking places lower (before this weeks) and far less promising IMO, but they've obviously had junior battles in the past, no less than at Wimbledon a few years ago (something Emma referenced a couple of days ago). She will have seen Emma get a WC for Nottm W100, something she probably could have had, probably would have been in line for a Wimbledon QWC (especially with some not being used), also with a chance for that to be boosted to a full MDWC, if she got a result or two on the grass, but while Emma is generating stories, and creating buzz left, right and centre, and an astonishing 240 ranking points from one event alone, she's has finally returned to the tour herself, and has made 10 points from 3 ITF events in as many weeks (although she did actually put out the #241 top seed in R1 of a W25, before bowing out in R2).

She's probably perfectly happy representing Taiwan, and to continue to do so, but there's surely got to be a bit of a 'what if' scenario lurking somewhere.

She seemed to spend most of the first half of the year in Taiwan so a switch looks unlikely. Only chance to get her for GB perhaps is if China reconquers the island but that would probably lead to WWIII which would disrupt the tennis calendar anyway! evileye

cya · Strong Club Player

Ace Ventura wrote:
I wonder what Joanna Garland is thinking of all this? She's 16 months older than Emma, was about 170 ranking places lower (before this weeks) and far less promising IMO, but they've obviously had junior battles in the past, no less than at Wimbledon a few years ago (something Emma referenced a couple of days ago). She will have seen Emma get a WC for Nottm W100, something she probably could have had, probably would have been in line for a Wimbledon QWC (especially with some not being used), also with a chance for that to be boosted to a full MDWC, if she got a result or two on the grass, but while Emma is generating stories, and creating buzz left, right and centre, and an astonishing 240 ranking points from one event alone, she's has finally returned to the tour herself, and has made 10 points from 3 ITF events in as many weeks (although she did actually put out the #241 top seed in R1 of a W25, before bowing out in R2).

She's probably perfectly happy representing Taiwan, and to continue to do so, but there's surely got to be a bit of a 'what if' scenario lurking somewhere.

There's a never ending combination of what if scenarios that can be run by a multitude of British junior / senior players when looking at what was achieved; but bear in mind that there are several GB players that weren't given these WCs mentioned above (several discussions held on this forum already about unused WCs) so it's not a given that Joanna would have benefited from them if she represented GB.

-- Edited by cya on Monday 5th of July 2021 01:30:06 AM

kundalini · Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

I'd just like to thank Andy Parker for mentioning in the relevant thread that the Dart v Raducanu match at Nottingham WTA 250 was on i-player. I missed it at the time, wasn't paying attention. It is a fascinating watch, given what has happened since.

Few would have been predicting Emma to become British number 1 within the next 12 months, immediately after that match, though Emma's talent is evident.

Emma won 51% of her first serve points in that match, compared to 72%, 79% and 83% in her matches at Wimbledon. Despite a couple of aces, the Raducanu first serve lacked the penetration that has been evident in the Grand Slam; surely a lesson for Harriet !

Lee · Lower Club Player

we always said goolies gone :(

GAMEOVER · Satellite level

LordBrownof wrote:
I love Heather but unless she does something really different she's holding on to the top 60 for as long as she can. Agree with everything else although I do wanna throw Katie S in there. Whilst she was outclassed by Maddy - and who hasn't been at some point - she has a better top-level than a Harriet for me. So fitness aside, I think she could join a Joko, Emma, Katie B and Heather in the top 100.

All we need now is a top-level week in week out dubs specialist and we could be a contender for the BJK Cup

When discussing future BJK Cup is it probable that Jo does not want to play in this event any more. She's skipped the last 2 years for various reasons, why would she want to return to it now? The earliest we could play in it in the finals is 2023 by which time Jo might have retired. She will be 32 by then. Surely we should be looking to build a team round Emma and KatieB if she could stay fit. As for doubles Harriet is a good doubles player in her own right and combines well other players.

Barefoot · Lower Club Player

I can see Emma and Katie being the top two within 12 months, with the caveat that Id say we have a year or so of this being at a lower overall level as Jo and Hev drop off and the two of them slowly climb. Jo I think will be looking to the future sooner rather than later, not to say imminent retirement but I can imagine her planning another couple of years to finish on her own terms if possible.

Many of the young players who break through fast have a period of stagnation (for want of a better word) as they adjust to a higher level , see Coco Iga Kostyuk so I hope Emma is kept level headed when her next results inevitably arent quite this strong. From what Ive seen of her attitude so far though I dont think this will take long

I wonder how Katie B would have done with this draw incidentally. I hope Emma not just being plucky Brit loser spurs her on to believe she can win these higher profile matches too.

-- Edited by Barefoot on Monday 5th of July 2021 09:15:03 AM

-- Edited by Barefoot on Monday 5th of July 2021 09:15:24 AM

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Given Coco is only 17, and is already WTA 23, and the logarithmic nature of any rankings table, I hardly think you can say she's stagnated

-- Edited by Coup Droit on Monday 5th of July 2021 09:38:47 AM