2020 Ranking Predictions - Female

Jaggy1876 · Grand Slam Champion

2020 Ranking Predictions - Female

the addict · Tennis legend

Entires are now officially closed, but I note that the following people from last year's list haven't entered.
You have 24 hours grace....

Andy Parker, Bruce, christ, Deano13, Helen40, Jaffa, M Turner04, nickw811, Oakland, Steve J, The Traveller2

Deano13 · Social player

Here goes...

1. Jo - 27
2. Heather - 78
3. Katie B - 120
4. Harriet D - 145
5. Emma R - 170
6. Katie S - 195
7. Sam Murray - 200
8. Naiktha - 210
9. Jodie B - 245
10. G Taylor - 265

Oakland2002 · All-time great

1.Johanna Konta 37
2.Heather Watson 63
3.Katie Boulter 74
4 Katie Swan 93
5. Harriet Dart 96
6. Naiktha Bains 157
7. Emma Raducanu 160
8. Samantha Murray 203
9. Gabi Taylor 247
10. Amanda Carreras 270

I think we have the deepest cohort of girls we have had over the last 10 years if only they can stay fit. Highlight for me would be to come last and see Fran Jones break into the top 200!

M_Turner04 · Social player

Heres my entry last minute as normal!

1.Konta - 14
2. Boulter 82
3.Watson - 99
4. Dart - 105
5. Swann - 160
6. Bains - 175
7. Raducanu - 192
8. Burrage - 210
9. Murray - 220
10. Lumsden - 251

the addict · Tennis legend

OK time's up
Here is a summary of the entries
41 entries includng Status Quo

			No of	Average	Average
	GB	WR	Picks	GB pred	WR pred
Johanna Konta	1	12	41	1.0	24
Heather Watson	2	103	41	2.4	97
Harriet Dart	3	142	41	3.7	129
Naiktha Bains	4	202	40	6.5	204
Samantha Murray	5	221	36	7.1	214
Katie Swan	6	248	40	5.4	178
Katie Boulter	7	285	41	3.4	126
Jodie Burrage	8	319	36	7.8	235
Maia Lumsden	9	327	7	9.3	287
Katy Dunne	10	350	10	9.1	271
Francesca Jones	11	352	6	9.8	259
Amanda Carreras	12	353	11	9.5	277
Emma Raducanu	13	374	37	7.8	230
Gabriella Taylor	14	420	18	8.8	257
Eden Silva	15	458	1	10.0	350
Tara Moore	16	463	1	10.0	330
Naomi Broady	17	466	0
Emily Webley-Smith	18	476	0
Alicia Barnett	19	571	1	10.0	340
Laura Robson	19	9999	2	8.0	277

the addict · Tennis legend

And the current point situation, based on the rankings as at 30/12/19
Mr Average is a dummy entry base on the average WR predictions.

I'll post the spreadsheet later, once I have access to the website.

Points summary:
	Points
Status Quo	100
Strongbow	69
Rosamund	62
Miriambee	60
JonH	54
Jon	52
kundalini	52
brittak	50
Jaggy1876	50
hoots	49
Ace Ventura	48
Babfive	48
indiana	48
Mr Average	48
Canda	46
Deano13	46
MTurner04	46
adz1983	45
Barefoot	44
Peter too	44
the addict	44
Mervatron2	43
scottie1	43
SuperT	43
paulisi	42
Tennpar	42
LordBrownof	40
Michael D	40
emmsie69	39
flamingowings	39
Brendan	38
Bolt	37
Coup Droit	37
goldfish	37
Grachka	37
Ian1314	37
JayKayFulham	37
Marvin	37
telstar	37
Nix	32
Oakland2002	31
Vandenburg	29

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

Thanks for the charts and breakdown TA. So the trend in the initial picks continued and there were 9 players that were picked by the vast majority (the lowest of the 9 still featuring in 88% of total picks), with Maia, the current #9, snubbed by most. Lots of different names making up the 10th pick (although not necessarily the #10 in all cases), with Gabi being the most common.

Out of curiosity, if we ended up with the average picks for our actual top 10 final rankings of 2020, would most be happy with that, or 'take' it now if offered:

Johanna Konta 24
Heather Watson 97
Katie Boulter 126
Harriet Dart 129
Katie Swan 178
Naiktha Bains 204
Samantha Murray 214
Emma Raducanu 230
Jodie Burrage 235
Gabriella Taylor 257

So Konta would decline slightly, and presumably wouldn't be making the latter stage of most of the slams like she did this year. Heather, Naiktha and Sam all remaining pretty much exactly where they are now. Katie S, Harriet, and Jodie all making reasonable (current) gains, but certainly nothing revolutionary, and all would still be behind their respective career highs, which would have been achieved between 18-26 months prior. Gabi heading back in the right direction, but still a long with off her career high from December 2018 as well, and Katie B heading back towards the top 100 after her 2019 injury nightmare. Oh, and young Emma continuing to make progress.

indiana · Tennis legend

Think I might have rather underestimated Emma R. I still have her GB #8, WR 254, so be good if I have.

One thing she has with her late year points ( which I didn't fully consider ) is already 'banked' 56 points which will still count at competition end. And I expect later this year her to have a fuller schedule.

No doubt within weeks I'll be wondering about a few more!

the addict · Tennis legend

So pleased that you got the same averages as me - that was the one item on the spreadsheet that caised me most grief, adding/counting cells across multiple columns.

Jo is no1 in everyone's eyes - the next 3 are all close and the order depends on how people see Katie B's recovery this year.
Interesting that nobody thought Naomi would climb back up the rankings (eleven people had 300+ for their last entry).

indiana · Tennis legend

Ace Ventura wrote:
Thanks for the charts and breakdown TA. So the trend in the initial picks continued and there were 9 players that were picked by the vast majority (the lowest of the 9 still featuring in 88% of total picks), with Maia, the current #9, snubbed by most. Lots of different names making up the 10th pick (although not necessarily the #10 in all cases), with Gabi being the most common.

Out of curiosity, if we ended up with the average picks for our actual top 10 final rankings of 2020, would most be happy with that, or 'take' it now if offered:
Johanna Konta 24
Heather Watson 97
Katie Boulter 126
Harriet Dart 129
Katie Swan 178
Naiktha Bains 204
Samantha Murray 214
Emma Raducanu 230
Jodie Burrage 235
Gabriella Taylor 257
So Konta would decline slightly, and presumably wouldn't be making the latter stage of most of the slams like she did this year. Heather, Naiktha and Sam all remaining pretty much exactly where they are now. Katie S, Harriet, and Jodie all making reasonable (current) gains, but certainly nothing revolutionary, and all would still be behind their respective career highs, which would have been achieved between 18-26 months prior. Gabi heading back in the right direction, but still a long with off her career high from December 2018 as well, and Katie B heading back towards the top 100 after her 2019 injury nightmare. Oh, and young Emma continuing to make progress.

Although we just have Jo well within the top 100, such is the depth of our top 10 above that the average of 179.4 compares very favourably with the GB current ( strongest nation ) top 10 average of 220.9 and our best this century, 190.1 in June 2018.

Blob or AliBB would no doubt say that we were again being over optimistic, and a few folk have said they probably are. In general though I think something that drives up the average is we don't try to account for the relatively really bad years ( for whatever reasons ) that will probably hit one or two, like Katie B last year, since it could be almost anyone. So we have predictions assuming nothing particularly bad happens to any of our 10, which I think is fair enough.

ROSAMUND · Futures level

This would be an interesting activity to do if we lived in the Czech Republic as they currently have 8 women in the top 65 as opposed to us with 1 player in the top 100. Can never imagine us as having such a healthy position.