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Post Info TOPIC: 2020 Ranking Predictions - Female


Tennis legend

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2020 Ranking Predictions - Female


Novel thought !
All entries are now on the spreadsheets up to this point.

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I'm probably being too optimistic but here we go:

1. Jo 21
2. Katie B 91
3. Heather 93
4. Harriet 125
5. Naiktha 169
6. Katie S 195
7. Jodie 230
8. Emma 250
9. Gabi 280
10. Fran 305

I always agonise over my last entry. For the past two years I have gone with my heart, and both times my No 10 has had a dreadful year with bad form or injury. I was tempted to leave Gabi out rather than risk jinxing her, but I've always maintained she would come good and I feel I must continue to show faith, so I moved things around and put her at number 9! I hate leaving Katy out, and Maia, but sadly there just isn't room for everyone.

Incidentally, Indi, I love the idea of having a No 11 joker that we could swap in during the course of the year.

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SuperT wrote:

I'm probably being too optimistic but here we go:

1. Jo 21
2. Katie B 91
3. Heather 93
4. Harriet 125
5. Naiktha 169
6. Katie S 195
7. Jodie 230
8. Emma 250
9. Gabi 280
10. Fran 305

I always agonise over my last entry. For the past two years I have gone with my heart, and both times my No 10 has had a dreadful year with bad form or injury. I was tempted to leave Gabi out rather than risk jinxing her, but I've always maintained she would come good and I feel I must continue to show faith, so I moved things around and put her at number 9! I hate leaving Katy out, and Maia, but sadly there just isn't room for everyone.

Incidentally, Indi, I love the idea of having a No 11 joker that we could swap in during the course of the year.


Yes, I like this idea too! Especially as so many people have indicated they agonised over their last choice. As far my choices are concerned - I'm really hoping Fran is going to thank me later for leaving her out! (And, yes, she would have been my #11 joker). 



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Tennis legend

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Perhaps we can add this in for next year. Named in advance with the list of ten, swap at any time in the season. A little late to add it in for this year really, although it could be done fairly easily.

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Not overly optimistic for this year but:-

1. Konta 22
2. Watson 102
3. Boulter 137
4. Dart 155
5. Swan 197
6. Bains 199
7. Raducanu 201
8. Burrage 222
9. Murray Sharan 271
10. Lumsden 272

Looks like Jones will be playing again soon so she would be next choice at around the 300 mark. Would also love it if Laura could somehow overcome her hip problem and make a comeback into our top 10.

Good luck to all our players!

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indiana wrote:
Grachka wrote:

1. Johanna Konta 28
2. Heather Watson 69
3. Harriet Dart 111
4. Katie Swan 119
5. Jodie Burrage 130
5. Samantha Murray Sharan 166
6. Katie Boulter 181
7. Emma Raducanu 202
8. Naiktha Bains 252
9. Amanda Carreras 295
10. Maia Lumsden 301


 Hi, you've got 2 #5s so 11 in all. 


 Haha!

Dammit.

Well. I guess that means Maia drops off. Sorry, Miss Lumsden.

1. Johanna Konta 28
2. Heather Watson 69
3. Harriet Dart 111
4. Katie Swan 119
5. Jodie Burrage 130
6. Samantha Murray Sharan 166
7. Katie Boulter 181
8. Emma Raducanu 202
9. Naiktha Bains 252
10. Amanda Carreras 295



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the addict wrote:

Perhaps we can add this in for next year. Named in advance with the list of ten, swap at any time in the season. A little late to add it in for this year really, although it could be done fairly easily.


Yes, the rule will have to be clear... only one swap allowed (too confusing otherwise)... and maybe within a given time period... and certainly the 11th person has to be selected with the original 10 before the start of the season. 



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Michael D wrote:
the addict wrote:

Perhaps we can add this in for next year. Named in advance with the list of ten, swap at any time in the season. A little late to add it in for this year really, although it could be done fairly easily.


Yes, the rule will have to be clear... only one swap allowed (too confusing otherwise)... and maybe within a given time period... and certainly the 11th person has to be selected with the original 10 before the start of the season. 


 As I said before I would love this, but I think the rule would need to be carefully thought though beforehand.  Would it have to be a straight swap ( ie if you drop no 6 your no 11 goes straight in there) or would you allow movements up and down, with 11 slotting in at 10?   Or other permutations?  I think it will take a better brain than mine to define a rule which would be fair for all.  



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Joko 25

harriet 80

Heather 120

katie B. 160

Naiktha 190

Sam M. 240

Jodie 260

Katie S. 270

Maia 300

Emma R. 320

(if we're allowed an 11th choice fran at 330.)



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SuperT wrote:
Michael D wrote:
the addict wrote:

Perhaps we can add this in for next year. Named in advance with the list of ten, swap at any time in the season. A little late to add it in for this year really, although it could be done fairly easily.


Yes, the rule will have to be clear... only one swap allowed (too confusing otherwise)... and maybe within a given time period... and certainly the 11th person has to be selected with the original 10 before the start of the season. 


 As I said before I would love this, but I think the rule would need to be carefully thought though beforehand.  Would it have to be a straight swap ( ie if you drop no 6 your no 11 goes straight in there) or would you allow movements up and down, with 11 slotting in at 10?   Or other permutations?  I think it will take a better brain than mine to define a rule which would be fair for all.  


Yes if you allow too much movement it becomes much harder work for the person running the prediction competition... And I don't think one should be allowed to reshuffle the whole order, it defeats the whole purpose of the ranking prediction, that you make it before the season has started. That suggests probably a straight swap... 



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Tennis legend

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Now I have the spreadsheet set up to automatically calculate all the points, it takes me about 5 minutes at the most to put in each new entry now.
So a substitution actually involves just changing a couple of numbers, eg taking out 6 from one cell and typing it in another. A reshuffle of the whole order shouldn't be allowed though.

I think we can go with this for next year if we set out the rule correctly.

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Tennis legend

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The 11th player substitute is an interesting idea. It is likely that one or two top players are going to get injured during the year, miss a few months and drop out of the top ten. It is also likely that one or two players are going to make an unexpected surge up the rankings. The choice of number 11 would probably be between an up and coming junior like Emma R or a senior player on the injury list like Laura or someone you couldn't quite fit into the top 10. The substitution could be limited to a period of a week or month at the start of or in the middle of the 2nd half



-- Edited by Peter too on Friday 3rd of January 2020 04:26:24 PM

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Hey, looks like I may have found a runner with my 11th selection potential subtitute. Certainly got some interest.

It was just something I threw out there when there was an entry with 11 selections by mistake.

I certainly didn't really give it any true consideration re methods and practicality beforehand or since, and since I absolutely agree that it isn't for this year, we will have plenty time in the future to discuss a possible workable method.

For now, I think, best to focus on seeing this year's comp up and running with Status Quo taking their early lead.

Thanks again to the addict for taking this on and Sim for all these past years..



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Peter too wrote:

The 11th player substitute is an interesting idea. It is likely that one or two top players are going to get injured during the year, miss a few months and drop out of the top ten. It is also likely that one or two players are going to make an unexpected surge up the rankings. The choice of number 11 would probably be between an up and coming junior like Emma R or a senior player on the injury list like Laura or someone you couldn't quite fit into the top 10. The substitution could be limited to a period of a week or month at the start of or in the middle of the 2nd half



-- Edited by Peter too on Friday 3rd of January 2020 04:26:24 PM


Yes I agree with you Peter, that was my thinking too. Either immediately before or after the grass court season. And it would be the swap of one player rather than a shuffle. In the case you mention of a top player becoming injured, then perhaps one additional move might be allowed, ie you can move one of your current 10 into the slot of the player injured, and then your 11th player into the slot of the one removed - rather like a football substitution where there is no like for like replacement and a player on the pitch changes his role, and then the new player on the pitch takes his old position. But that should be the limit of the moves allowed. 

For this year, a lot of us would have had Fran as their 11th nominee, some would have had Katy D, and others Gabi. I suspect they would have been the top 3, 11th nominees. smile

Heaven knows who CD would have picked though wink 



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Tennis legend

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Katy Dunne or Eden.

The others on the list were just those who have a very good claim.

But not my picks

However, the joker player is a great idea but - as shown - a little tricky.

A straight swap makes most sense. Having one additional move adds extra complication.

But if Jo takes 6 months off, say, I agree that it's daft to put Eden or Katy Dunne as a substitute into the number one spot, at WTA 24, or whatever I put JoKo at.

Personally, I quite like the clarity and simplicity of a straight one-time shoot-off.

No bitching and moaning later in the year, it is what it is.

And you might have a problem with people who aren't regulars missing the two-week 'joker swap' window and then it's not that fair on them.

I like the joker idea but, from where I am at the moment, I like the idea of keeping the official list as a one-off - BUT 'allowing' people to mention their 11th player, officially, at the time, just for interest and discussion later on.

A sort of official 'I was SO close'.......  


(Rather like my point about Emma's ranking a couple of weeks after the final results this year, but still in 2019 - FIVE extra points I'd have got - would have aced it - did I mention that by any chance??? can't remember.....winkwinkwink)



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