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Post Info TOPIC: 2020 Ranking Predictions - Female


Grand Slam Champion

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2020 Ranking Predictions - Female


Jo Konta 12
Heather Watson 90
Harriet Dart 95
Katie Boulter 100
Katie Swan 180
Naiktha Bains 216
Sam Murray 220
Emma Raducanu 236
Jodie Burrage 240
Gabriela Taylor 265


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Tennis legend

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Entires are now officially closed, but I note that the following people from last year's list haven't entered.
You have 24 hours grace....

Andy Parker, Bruce, christ, Deano13, Helen40, Jaffa, M Turner04, nickw811, Oakland, Steve J, The Traveller2


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Social player

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Here goes...

1. Jo - 27
2. Heather - 78
3. Katie B - 120
4. Harriet D - 145
5. Emma R - 170
6. Katie S - 195
7. Sam Murray - 200
8. Naiktha - 210
9. Jodie B - 245
10. G Taylor - 265

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All-time great

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1.Johanna Konta 37
2.Heather Watson 63
3.Katie Boulter 74
4 Katie Swan 93
5. Harriet Dart 96
6. Naiktha Bains 157
7. Emma Raducanu 160
8. Samantha Murray 203
9. Gabi Taylor 247
10. Amanda Carreras 270

I think we have the deepest cohort of girls we have had over the last 10 years if only they can stay fit. Highlight for me would be to come last and see Fran Jones break into the top 200!



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Heres my entry last minute as normal!

1.Konta - 14
2. Boulter 82
3.Watson - 99
4. Dart - 105
5. Swann - 160
6. Bains - 175
7. Raducanu - 192
8. Burrage - 210
9. Murray - 220
10. Lumsden - 251



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Tennis legend

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OK time's up
Here is a summary of the entries
41 entries includng Status Quo

   No ofAverageAverage
 GB WRPicksGB predWR pred
Johanna Konta112411.024
Heather Watson2103412.497
Harriet Dart3142413.7129
Naiktha Bains4202406.5204
Samantha Murray5221367.1214
Katie Swan6248405.4178
Katie Boulter7285413.4126
Jodie Burrage8319367.8235
Maia Lumsden932779.3287
Katy Dunne10350109.1271
Francesca Jones1135269.8259
Amanda Carreras12353119.5277
Emma Raducanu13374377.8230
Gabriella Taylor14420188.8257
Eden Silva15458110.0350
Tara Moore16463110.0330
Naomi Broady174660  
Emily Webley-Smith184760  
Alicia Barnett19571110.0340
Laura Robson19999928.0277


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Tennis legend

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And the current point situation, based on the rankings as at 30/12/19
Mr Average is a dummy entry base on the average WR predictions.

I'll post the spreadsheet later, once I have access to the website.

Points summary:  
 Points
Status Quo100
Strongbow69
Rosamund62
Miriambee60
JonH54
Jon52
kundalini52
brittak50
Jaggy187650
hoots49
Ace Ventura48
Babfive48
indiana48
Mr Average48
Canda46
Deano1346
MTurner0446
adz198345
Barefoot44
Peter too44
the addict44
Mervatron243
scottie143
SuperT43
paulisi42
Tennpar42
LordBrownof40
Michael D40
emmsie6939
flamingowings39
Brendan38
Bolt37
Coup Droit37
goldfish37
Grachka37
Ian131437
JayKayFulham37
Marvin37
telstar37
Nix32
Oakland200231
Vandenburg29


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Tennis legend

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Thanks for the charts and breakdown TA. So the trend in the initial picks continued and there were 9 players that were picked by the vast majority (the lowest of the 9 still featuring in 88% of total picks), with Maia, the current #9, snubbed by most. Lots of different names making up the 10th pick (although not necessarily the #10 in all cases), with Gabi being the most common.

Out of curiosity, if we ended up with the average picks for our actual top 10 final rankings of 2020, would most be happy with that, or 'take' it now if offered:

Johanna Konta 24
Heather Watson 97
Katie Boulter 126
Harriet Dart 129
Katie Swan 178
Naiktha Bains 204
Samantha Murray 214
Emma Raducanu 230
Jodie Burrage 235
Gabriella Taylor 257

So Konta would decline slightly, and presumably wouldn't be making the latter stage of most of the slams like she did this year. Heather, Naiktha and Sam all remaining pretty much exactly where they are now. Katie S, Harriet, and Jodie all making reasonable (current) gains, but certainly nothing revolutionary, and all would still be behind their respective career highs, which would have been achieved between 18-26 months prior. Gabi heading back in the right direction, but still a long with off her career high from December 2018 as well, and Katie B heading back towards the top 100 after her 2019 injury nightmare. Oh, and young Emma continuing to make progress.



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Think I might have rather underestimated Emma R. I still have her GB #8, WR 254, so be good if I have.

One thing she has with her late year points ( which I didn't fully consider ) is already 'banked' 56 points which will still count at competition end. And I expect later this year her to have a fuller schedule.

No doubt within weeks I'll be wondering about a few more!



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Tennis legend

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So pleased that you got the same averages as me - that was the one item on the spreadsheet that caised me most grief, adding/counting cells across multiple columns.

Jo is no1 in everyone's eyes - the next 3 are all close and the order depends on how people see Katie B's recovery this year.
Interesting that nobody thought Naomi would climb back up the rankings (eleven people had 300+ for their last entry).

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Ace Ventura wrote:

Thanks for the charts and breakdown TA. So the trend in the initial picks continued and there were 9 players that were picked by the vast majority (the lowest of the 9 still featuring in 88% of total picks), with Maia, the current #9, snubbed by most. Lots of different names making up the 10th pick (although not necessarily the #10 in all cases), with Gabi being the most common.

Out of curiosity, if we ended up with the average picks for our actual top 10 final rankings of 2020, would most be happy with that, or 'take' it now if offered:

Johanna Konta 24
Heather Watson 97
Katie Boulter 126
Harriet Dart 129
Katie Swan 178
Naiktha Bains 204
Samantha Murray 214
Emma Raducanu 230
Jodie Burrage 235
Gabriella Taylor 257

So Konta would decline slightly, and presumably wouldn't be making the latter stage of most of the slams like she did this year. Heather, Naiktha and Sam all remaining pretty much exactly where they are now. Katie S, Harriet, and Jodie all making reasonable (current) gains, but certainly nothing revolutionary, and all would still be behind their respective career highs, which would have been achieved between 18-26 months prior. Gabi heading back in the right direction, but still a long with off her career high from December 2018 as well, and Katie B heading back towards the top 100 after her 2019 injury nightmare. Oh, and young Emma continuing to make progress.


 

Although we just have Jo well within the top 100, such is the depth of our top 10 above that the average of 179.4 compares very favourably with the GB current ( strongest nation ) top 10 average of 220.9 and our best this century, 190.1 in June 2018.

Blob or AliBB would no doubt say that we were again being over optimistic, and a few folk have said they probably are. In general though I think something that drives up the average is we don't try to account for the relatively really bad years ( for whatever reasons ) that will probably hit one or two, like Katie B last year, since it could be almost anyone. So we have predictions assuming nothing particularly bad happens to any of our 10, which I think is fair enough. 



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Futures level

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This would be an interesting activity to do if we lived in the Czech Republic as they currently have 8 women in the top 65 as opposed to us with 1 player in the top 100. Can never imagine us as having such a healthy position.



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Tennis legend

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Here is a link to the tables.

http://www.britishtennis.net/predictions/2020%20Female%20Ranking%20predictions.htm

Let me know if I have made any mistakes - if you disagree with the points please message me rather than posting here, and I will investigate.

Edit - Link updated, and seems to work now. Updated tables to follow shortly after the next rankings update



-- Edited by the addict on Saturday 8th of February 2020 08:05:07 PM

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Tennis legend

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Bump

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Tennis legend

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the addict wrote:

Bump


 Hi The Addict. I'm afraid the tables link wont open for me on my phone,  not sure if it is just me? 

 

Any chance of posting the current standings as a list in this thread?! 

 

Thanks ! 



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