Members Login
Username 
 
Password 
    Remember Me  
Post Info TOPIC: How will you vote in 2019 General Election?
How will you vote in the 2019 general election? [33 vote(s)]

Conservative
15.2%
Labour
21.2%
Lib Dems
42.4%
SNP or Plaid
6.1%
Brexit Party
3.0%
Green
12.1%


Tennis legend

Status: Offline
Posts: 14873
Date:
How will you vote in 2019 General Election?


Shhh wrote:
Status Quo wrote:

5 results still to come in.

vYYjMTl.png

So, a landslide for Boris, now crowned as an electoral genius, a giant amongst strategists of our time.

But, a story which I suspect precisely no one will care to tell today:

45.6% of voters voted for pro Leave positioned parties.
(43.6% Tory + 2.0% Brexit Party)

Whilst at least 50.4% voted for remain positioned parties
32.3% Labour + 11.5% Lib Dem + 3.9% SNP + 2.7% Green)

Adding in Northern Ireland would make it even more pronounced, as Nationalists MPs outnumber Unionists for the first time ever.

How long can the union in Scotlanf and NI last?


 I'm seeing several similar versions of this on social media this morning.  Give it up SQ please.  We can all read what we like into stats, it dosen't mean the conclusion is correct.  As an example, how about the only leader feeling she could form a govt by standing to point blank stop Brexit has barely reached double figures and lost her own seat?

I voted Tory yet readily admit that Boris is a liar, a coward and I do not fully trust him.  I think many people who voted for him would admit to similar.  What does that tell you about how dimly I viewed the alternatives and how fed up I am in the charade parliament has been for too long now.  Other points on social media seem to stop just short of Boris underway with death camps but all rationality is out the window at the moment.  Its 5 years of Tory for sure now but once Brexit has passed, there are an awful lot of voters who hold no loyalty to him and this huge majority could be for 5 years and 5 years only.


As you say, I think you have summed up the way so many people feel in that one section of your post.  The only real thing that this election shows us about Brexit itself, is that if we ran the referendum 10 times, we would probably end up with a 5-5 draw.  It is too close to call and extrapolating numbers from a General Election to express views on a single issue is fraught with problems.  I am not criticising SQ here as I have done the same thing myself on many occasions and in my head, I have been doing the same calculations today for my own amusement.

The only thing, IMO that we have really learned from this election is that Corbynism is a failed experiment and if the Labour Party want to ever get back into power they have to move back to the centre ground.  One interesting stat floating around in Twittersphere at the moment is that by the end of Boris's 5 years, Tony Blair will be the only Labour Leader to have won an election in over 50 years.  Surely that is something the Labour Party will have to consider when choosing the next leader.

Brexit will now happen. I have to accept that.  But I still think there are many challenges ahead and some extremely difficult decisions to be made.  I still think there will be disagreement and disappointment for people on both sides.  For example, another interesting theory going around at the moment is that Boris's majority is so large, he is no longer in the grip of the ERG and therefore he can/will move back towards a softer Brexit which would upset some of the more hardliners.

We are in for interesting times over the next 12 months and beyond.  But at least there is now the scope for moving forwards.



-- Edited by Bob in Spain on Friday 13th of December 2019 03:09:24 PM

__________________


Tennis legend

Status: Offline
Posts: 33026
Date:

My view is that the electorate certainly backed Brexit. I'm sorry SQ but I don't really follow the gymnastics one has to do to say otherwise.
My parents-in-law are staunch Tories, they voted Remain.
And now, not only did they vote Tory because they always have and would, but they would also vote Leave if there was another referendum.
Not because they think they got it wrong the first time (they'd still vote Remain if we re-did the first one) but because they think it's too late now, they EU would take the p**s out of us if we backed down now, in for a penny, in for a pound, and all that.....
But I do not think that Brexit was the only, or maybe not even the biggest, issue - Corbyn was unelectable.
And so Boris will pass the Brexit Bill in the next few weeks with huge hoo-hah and bunting and dancing in the streets.
However, like Bob says, I think there's then a good chance that in the leaving negotiation phase, Boris will be a lot 'softer' because it will all be a lot lower visibility, the 'show' event will be done, and he won't want to skupper all our economic prospects....(at least, that's my hope)

__________________


ATP qualifying

Status: Offline
Posts: 2721
Date:

Bob in Spain wrote:

On a more personal note for our 2 MP regulars on here, I was sorry to see PaulM lose his seat to the SNP tidal wave, but delighted for Topemp, who survived the slaughter of Labour, despite his party's very poor showing. He is being very critical of his own party this morning and rightly so in my opinion. His most recent tweet included the sentence

So many talented people lost on the altar of a manifesto of fantasies. So many millions betrayed. Labour must learn or die.

He also retweeted a comment last night that described Jeremy Corbyn as "monumentally unpopular".

Toby Perkins for Labour Leader ? 


As a former resident of East Renfrewshire I am delighted to see Kirsten Oswald return rather than campaigners who ironically only had vote for us to stop independence as their policy. Next stop to get rid of Jackson Carlaw.

The Tories in Scotland, protect our Union thats all they had as they know they have nothing in their manifesto to speak to the majority. For the few not the many. Also delighted Shona Haslam failed in her frankly immoral campaign to target the bigoted Rangers fans in Larkhall. Truly despicable tactics.

As a resident of East Dunbartonshire Im delighted to see Amy Callaghan elected, a young vibrant campaigner she has a bright future ahead. Swinson on the other hand should go away and think about her mistakes. Maybe think back to when she was a young teenage I remember working in McDonalds who had values. She deserved to fall last night.

 

 

 

 



__________________


Intermediate Club Player

Status: Offline
Posts: 296
Date:

Coup Droit wrote:

My view is that the electorate certainly backed Brexit. I'm sorry SQ but I don't really follow the gymnastics one has to do to say otherwise.


Summary
I just pointed out that the overall data was contrary to the result delivered by FPTP elections.

I'm not arguing with the result or asking for a redo of the election, or the referendum or attempting to delegitimise the results in any way. Apologies if stating the numbers appeared so to do.


Yet more detail - don't I ever shut up
In total, more people did vote for the fractured diaspora of parties aligned to remain than did for those aligned to leave. Both overall and in each nation. Why is that at all controversial or gymnastic?

The increase in vote share of the landslide party was just +1.2% over a performance that (in 2017) was lambasted as woeful. You would not think that +1.2% would mean such a massive majority. Also, if before the election I had said Johnson would get just +1.2% more than May's 2017 shambles *her own party's assessment) I douvt highly that anyone would have suggested that would mean a+80 seat majority.

But it did, so why was that, and I offered a reason.

No doubt at all that Corbyn was awful in many respects, and that had a heavy toll.

But if the Lib Dems and Labour had made a pact to exclude from each others strongholds like the Brexit party did, then the - and OK, let's divorce it from Brexit entirely then - anti-Tory vote would not have gotten diluted amongst 2-3 parties but been one big number. Such as it was for the Conservatives in those places where Brexit party withdrew. That would have led to more seats for non-Conservative MPs - the totals, as in Kensington. where 30K Lab+LD was split evenly and so 16.6K Tory won (it's not the best example as Brexit party did stand there for 300 votes).

Tories would still have won, as the extra MPs would be split between 2 parties, but the Tory majority would have been down to about 15-20, and thus much more in line with the +1.2% vote share that they actually secured.

As for hopes about Johnson, each to their own, and no prejudice about anyone else's conclusions and judgements about that. We should all hope for the best for the country, and the old-fashioned sense of duty to once more direct our representative rather than personal ambition.

That said, I am sadly peculiarly well averse of Johnson's entire career, of the last 30 years.
He has never changed in all that time from the grasping rapacious mendacious schemer that he has always been. I can't in honesty find any evidence to bring myself to suggest that he will change now. Especially as his self-avowed goals and ambitions of power well beyond just being PM are now tantalisingly within reach.

But, I guess we settle on hope There is no real chance for a viable opposition from any party forming over the next decade, as is the way of these things, as in-fighting overcomes them etc So an unchecked Tory free run it is. I spoke earlier (at, unsurprising, great length )  about the precedents for voters thinking they can reign in parties they have enabled on what some of them imagined where singular or qualified occasions.

I think it is naieve given how precariously our democracy has recently been shown to hang by threads of good faith and gentlemans agreements, conventions and traditions, none of them enforceable or with actual recourse to stop  some one willing to chance their abuse. Indeed, ripe for abuse, should the wrong party get their hands on them. Given his history, I believe Johnson is such a threat, and the ecosystem that includes Cummings & Bannon does nothing to disuade me that there will be any moderating or restraining influence brought to bear. The power gra and erosion of the norms has worked in a couple of dozen countries in the last decade where it was previously supposedly unimaginable.

Do you think our Democracy so strong that we can withstand those headwinds? When all over the world people demand strong unitary executives and are willing to ignore what would be seen in the 20th century as corruption and cruelty in order to enable them. When our now PM has been taking advisement from the architects of such succesful power grabs, and has already followed the playbook in his tenure to date?

Maybe hope will suffice. Such has not been my experience, but mileage may vary.

 



__________________


Challenger level

Status: Offline
Posts: 2526
Date:

The biggest irony in all this - the Conservative and Unionist Party, who believe so strongly in the United Kingdom at the heart of its politics, will through this push for Brexit actually be the likely architects of the break up of the Union with Scotland and possibly Northern Ireland on course to move for referendums.

And the sad truth is that most of the people who voted this way dont get that that is what they voted for, against what they actually believe in

__________________


Challenger level

Status: Offline
Posts: 2526
Date:

Hear hear

twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1205278729200492544

Ed Balls and George Osborne nodding vigorously. She may be one of the past Labour MP's and unacceptable in the modern day, but Yvette Cooper would be someone I would support to lead going forwards. Jess Philips I also like but maybe not ready to lead. Starmer lacks the personality. But there is enough moderate and passionate Social Democratic talent around to push forwards over the next 5 years

__________________


Challenger level

Status: Offline
Posts: 2526
Date:

tactically, Lib Dems and Labour handed this to Boris on a plate

twitter.com/ianbirrell/status/1205255933800189952

__________________


Top national player

Status: Offline
Posts: 3440
Date:

JonH comes home wrote:

The biggest irony in all this - the Conservative and Unionist Party, who believe so strongly in the United Kingdom at the heart of its politics, will through this push for Brexit actually be the likely architects of the break up of the Union with Scotland and possibly Northern Ireland on course to move for referendums.

And the sad truth is that most of the people who voted this way dont get that that is what they voted for, against what they actually believe in


 If voting changed anything they'd ban it (I think that was Red Ken) many moons ago. smile



__________________


Challenger level

Status: Offline
Posts: 2526
Date:

First rule of Fascism, get the propaganda war won in a populist election

twitter.com/david_conn/status/1205585367279325185

"Get Brexit Done"

www.eyes-on-europe.eu/populism-through-the-eyes-of-hannah-arendt-now-and-then/

__________________


Challenger level

Status: Offline
Posts: 2526
Date:

www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/rentier-capitalism-breeding-neo-fascism-vote-wisely/

"In conclusion, we are faced with a crisis of awesome proportions. If the right-wing rump of the Conservative Party wins the General Election, the drift from rentier capitalism to a neo-fascist authoritarianism will be predictable. The only parties offering elements of a strategy for re-embedding the economy in society are the Greens, Labour and the SNP. Vote wisely!"

(final paragraph of the above).

Someone switch the lights off please when they leave

__________________


Top national player

Status: Offline
Posts: 3440
Date:

Since forcing out Tony Blair the Labour party have kept choosing un-electable leaders (Gordon Brown, the wrong "Milliband" and finally Corbyn).

The Conservatives did exactly the same after Major (William Hague, Ian Duncan-Smith and Michael Howard).

Any chance of them learning ? Answers on a postcard to ...



__________________


Grand Slam Champion

Status: Offline
Posts: 4705
Date:

I watched some of the electoral coverage late into the morning, it was interesting to hear Aaron Banks speak, I had not heard him before, cold calculating and remorseless jubilant. Boris did a great job, you lost!

Tactically the Torys have been superb, brazen damage mitigation by ruthlessly control of their exposure. I do expect support in their newly won seats to dwindle as the fiscal reality for their new supporters bites however I am certain they are already calculating how to manipulate all environments open to them to maintain their position at the next election. Historically they have recruited the best PR managers in the business, the Labour Party could never employ tobacco industry apologists, but lets face it they are superb at what they do. You name it they will test it, weigh up the odds and chance it.

At Easter I had a very interesting conversation with a Labour MP deselected by own local members who was really concerned about the labour parties inability to reinvent itself as an electable political party. There is some talent in the centre left but will they get an opportunity to flourish or merely be crushed by idealists with little ambition to govern or insight into how that is achieved. An egg that needs unscrambling.

One person that always cheers me up is Jess Phillips particularly her quote about olives, she said before she went to Westminster she thought posh people were people who ate olives, she has now met some properly posh people and would not trust them to hold her pint. I would trust her to hold mine.

__________________


Challenger level

Status: Offline
Posts: 2526
Date:

Jaggy1876 wrote:
Bob in Spain wrote:

On a more personal note for our 2 MP regulars on here, I was sorry to see PaulM lose his seat to the SNP tidal wave, but delighted for Topemp, who survived the slaughter of Labour, despite his party's very poor showing. He is being very critical of his own party this morning and rightly so in my opinion. His most recent tweet included the sentence

So many talented people lost on the altar of a manifesto of fantasies. So many millions betrayed. Labour must learn or die.

He also retweeted a comment last night that described Jeremy Corbyn as "monumentally unpopular".

Toby Perkins for Labour Leader ? 


As a former resident of East Renfrewshire I am delighted to see Kirsten Oswald return rather than campaigners who ironically only had vote for us to stop independence as their policy. Next stop to get rid of Jackson Carlaw.

The Tories in Scotland, protect our Union thats all they had as they know they have nothing in their manifesto to speak to the majority. For the few not the many. Also delighted Shona Haslam failed in her frankly immoral campaign to target the bigoted Rangers fans in Larkhall. Truly despicable tactics.

As a resident of East Dunbartonshire Im delighted to see Amy Callaghan elected, a young vibrant campaigner she has a bright future ahead. Swinson on the other hand should go away and think about her mistakes. Maybe think back to when she was a young teenage I remember working in McDonalds who had values. She deserved to fall last night.

 

 

 

 


 This was bothering me, now I know!

https://www.west-dunbarton.gov.uk/libraries/archives-family-history/place-names/d/

 

Dumbarton and dunbartonshire!

 



__________________


Challenger level

Status: Offline
Posts: 2526
Date:

Oakland2002 wrote:

I watched some of the electoral coverage late into the morning, it was interesting to hear Aaron Banks speak, I had not heard him before, cold calculating and remorseless jubilant. Boris did a great job, you lost!

Tactically the Torys have been superb, brazen damage mitigation by ruthlessly control of their exposure. I do expect support in their newly won seats to dwindle as the fiscal reality for their new supporters bites however I am certain they are already calculating how to manipulate all environments open to them to maintain their position at the next election. Historically they have recruited the best PR managers in the business, the Labour Party could never employ tobacco industry apologists, but lets face it they are superb at what they do. You name it they will test it, weigh up the odds and chance it.

At Easter I had a very interesting conversation with a Labour MP deselected by own local members who was really concerned about the labour parties inability to reinvent itself as an electable political party. There is some talent in the centre left but will they get an opportunity to flourish or merely be crushed by idealists with little ambition to govern or insight into how that is achieved. An egg that needs unscrambling.

One person that always cheers me up is Jess Phillips particularly her quote about olives, she said before she went to Westminster she thought posh people were people who ate olives, she has now met some properly posh people and would not trust them to hold her pint. I would trust her to hold mine.


 Mustn't forget andy Burnham,  hes someone who is moderate left and leading a large city, a decent man and that route of mayor seems to have done the current PM no harm.



__________________


Intermediate Club Player

Status: Offline
Posts: 296
Date:

Strongbow wrote:

Since forcing out Tony Blair the Labour party have kept choosing un-electable leaders (Gordon Brown, the wrong "Milliband" and finally Corbyn).

The Conservatives did exactly the same after Major (William Hague, Ian Duncan-Smith and Michael Howard).

Any chance of them learning ? Answers on a postcard to ...


Certainly pretty much agree with that.

But the lesson that the Tories were supposed to learn from those three massive defeats - even bigger than 2019 was for Labour - was that the issue of Europe, that had been rumbling on in their factions and had them at civil war since the late 1970's, was going to prevent them from ever getting re-elected again. They always came to the ballot box divided on the key issue of Europe. e.g. Ken Clarke vs John Redwood.

Yet, they never solved it - as evidenced by the Cameron tabling of the referendum in the first place which was supposed to be little more than a sop to placate the factions in his own party and the 1922 committee, and the Johnsonian purges to expel all lingering non-ideological purists.

Yet there they are, and have been for 10 years, and are now for probably 10 more. Rewarded for austerity and rising violent crime, and unpopular immigration, and the NHS on vary shaky possibly unsustainable ground - public says: well done!

History seems to show that Labour need to learn lessons and make themselves a centre right party (Blair) or are obviously un-electable, Tories can just wait, or either swerve into the middle right with some farther right (though not yet, truly anything bordering far-right, by any means, but the global needle is moving fast) tendencies and they win landslides.

 



__________________
«First  <  14 5 6 | Page of 6  sorted by
 
Quick Reply

Please log in to post quick replies.

Tweet this page Post to Digg Post to Del.icio.us


Create your own FREE Forum
Report Abuse
Powered by ActiveBoard