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Post Info TOPIC: How will you vote in 2019 General Election?
How will you vote in the 2019 general election? [33 vote(s)]

Conservative
15.2%
Labour
21.2%
Lib Dems
42.4%
SNP or Plaid
6.1%
Brexit Party
3.0%
Green
12.1%


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How will you vote in 2019 General Election?


Just to add I don't think anyone has been duped by Johnson, everyone pretty much knows how ruthless and grasping he is, and they voted for him because that is what they, what the country wants.

In USA, latest Republican polling shows 48% of Republicans now favour autocracy, Democracy (beyond the voting) proving to difficult with it's compromise. Men of action - and it is always pretty much men - is what people want, even if it means brooking no opposition.
I think that's what's true here now from this results. Give them a free hand to bludgeon through whatever they want and forego due process or opposition arguments in order to ;do things'. At least for a term and hope that they can be held to holding a fair vote after that period. History should tell us about how well that tends to go, but that is where the mood is nonetheless, roll the clock back a couple hundred years.

If the people so choose, then off we go on that adventure.

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Nationalism, or national identity, yes. The fine line between patriotism, pride and excessive pride and hatred.
Take the country back. Just trust that those that are taking back the country will hand it back to you at some point.

People seem to be definitively saying that they dont want anything to do with the EU - they'll not raise a peep about American interventions of course, or the Australian Billinaires control of our Media landscape.
The idea that you can cede power to a collective greater good has been rejected, That is national pride and self-determination, nationalism lite if you will. But that's what they thought in 1919 also.

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Anyway.
Merry Christmas to all tennis fans of all ideologies.
At least the 2020 season isn't far away now, and we can all come together for that regardless.

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Tennis legend

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Jo Swinson out. Might be harsh to say so, but that might be the best thing for the Lib Dems. She has been very ineffective and the Lib Dems have run a very poor campaign. I do believe she is/was an honest and hard working MP who showed good integrity but sadly she was not leadership material.

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5 results still to come in.

vYYjMTl.png

So, a landslide for Boris, now crowned as an electoral genius, a giant amongst strategists of our time.

But, a story which I suspect precisely no one will care to tell today:

45.6% of voters voted for pro Leave positioned parties.
(43.6% Tory + 2.0% Brexit Party)

Whilst at least 50.4% voted for remain positioned parties
32.3% Labour + 11.5% Lib Dem + 3.9% SNP + 2.7% Green)

Adding in Northern Ireland would make it even more pronounced, as Nationalists MPs outnumber Unionists for the first time ever.

How long can the union in Scotlanf and NI last?



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Masters Series Champion

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Gutted but not overly surprised at the result.
As I'm in Scotland the sooner we get another Indyref the better - and the last time I was against it.

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Bob in Spain wrote:

Jo Swinson out. Might be harsh to say so, but that might be the best thing for the Lib Dems. She has been very ineffective and the Lib Dems have run a very poor campaign. I do believe she is/was an honest and hard working MP who showed good integrity but sadly she was not leadership material.


 Delighted she is out, no integrity whatsoever. And likewise good to see East Renfrewshire fall from the Tories as well. 



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Well bad luck to PaulM losing his job - more time for tennis Paul. Toby Perkins (Lab) retained his in Chesterfield.

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flamingowings wrote:

Gutted but not overly surprised at the result.
As I'm in Scotland the sooner we get another Indyref the better - and the last time I was against it.


 A genuine question - can we in England have an indy referendum as well, I would be for it now for sure and certainly envy you in Scotland!



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Tennis legend

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So what happens now ?

Labour: They have to pick a more centrist leader or they will never recover the lost ground. I fear that Momentum and Unite will block that and go for another hard left candidate, albeit one with less baggage than Mr Corbyn.

Lib Dems: Much depends on what Labour does. If Labour go for another hard left candidate, there is room for trying to build the centre ground, but I don't see anyone in the party with the necessary personal charisma that sadly is so important in modern day politics. If Labour move towards the centre, there will be no room for the Lib Dems and they will remain in the political wilderness for the foreseeable future.

SNP: Will push like mad for IndyRef2 and in my opinion, they should have it. It is all very well people saying that IndyRef1 was a "once in a generation" referendum but the winning Tory "better together" campaign was predicated on staying within the EU. With such a fundamental change, a 2nd ref is justified, if that is what the people of Scotland want. But Johnson will never give it to them.

NI: With NI now having more Nationalist MPs than Unionist, I wonder if Johnson will consider giving them a referendum on a United Ireland. NI always wanted to remain in the EU and I think there is a strong possibility that a reunification vote would be successful. It would also solve a huge problem for Johnson in his Brexit planning. This, for me, is more likely than IndyRef2 in Scotland.

Brexit Party: Will all but cease to exist, much like UKIP. Farage already talking about changing the name to the "Reform Party" and pushing for electoral reform. I would actually find myself agreeing with him on that (strange bedfellows, I know) but the two main parties will never support it as it would risk them losing their stranglehold on UK Politics in the medium to long term.

Tories: What can I say other than if Brexit goes wrong now, there is nobody else to blame. No pressure then. Personally I don't think Johnson will get a trade deal with the EU by the end of 2020. What's more, any decision on an extension of the Transition Period must be taken by 30th June. Johnson will never ask for the extension at that stage because he will see it as weakening his negotiating position. So come Dec 2020, we will be in serious risk of reentering No Deal territory and Johnson will end up agreeing to a trade deal that heavily favours the EU just to avoid No Deal.

A New Centre Party: Well, I can dream, can't I ?



-- Edited by Bob in Spain on Friday 13th of December 2019 10:28:45 AM

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On a more personal note for our 2 MP regulars on here, I was sorry to see PaulM lose his seat to the SNP tidal wave, but delighted for Topemp, who survived the slaughter of Labour, despite his party's very poor showing. He is being very critical of his own party this morning and rightly so in my opinion. His most recent tweet included the sentence

So many talented people lost on the altar of a manifesto of fantasies. So many millions betrayed. Labour must learn or die.

He also retweeted a comment last night that described Jeremy Corbyn as "monumentally unpopular".

Toby Perkins for Labour Leader ? 



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Futures level

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Status Quo wrote:

5 results still to come in.

vYYjMTl.png

So, a landslide for Boris, now crowned as an electoral genius, a giant amongst strategists of our time.

But, a story which I suspect precisely no one will care to tell today:

45.6% of voters voted for pro Leave positioned parties.
(43.6% Tory + 2.0% Brexit Party)

Whilst at least 50.4% voted for remain positioned parties
32.3% Labour + 11.5% Lib Dem + 3.9% SNP + 2.7% Green)

Adding in Northern Ireland would make it even more pronounced, as Nationalists MPs outnumber Unionists for the first time ever.

How long can the union in Scotlanf and NI last?


 I'm seeing several similar versions of this on social media this morning.  Give it up SQ please.  We can all read what we like into stats, it dosen't mean the conclusion is correct.  As an example, how about the only leader feeling she could form a govt by standing to point blank stop Brexit has barely reached double figures and lost her own seat?

I voted Tory yet readily admit that Boris is a liar, a coward and I do not fully trust him.  I think many people who voted for him would admit to similar.  What does that tell you about how dimly I viewed the alternatives and how fed up I am in the charade parliament has been for too long now.  Other points on social media seem to stop just short of Boris underway with death camps but all rationality is out the window at the moment.  Its 5 years of Tory for sure now but once Brexit has passed, there are an awful lot of voters who hold no loyalty to him and this huge majority could be for 5 years and 5 years only.



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5 years is a REALLY long time though. Unless something else happens...

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One other small ray of sunshine is that my labour MP in Reading East was returned with an increased majority, totally against the national trend. This shows what is possible when you have a hard working local man (he lives in my road) with moderate socialist views who people trust and respect. He has campaigned primarily for the NHS, affordable housing and sustainable transport and has been a firm supporter of Remain since day one in a strong Pro Remain area.

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Shhh wrote:
Status Quo wrote:

5 results still to come in.

vYYjMTl.png

So, a landslide for Boris, now crowned as an electoral genius, a giant amongst strategists of our time.

But, a story which I suspect precisely no one will care to tell today:

45.6% of voters voted for pro Leave positioned parties.
(43.6% Tory + 2.0% Brexit Party)

Whilst at least 50.4% voted for remain positioned parties
32.3% Labour + 11.5% Lib Dem + 3.9% SNP + 2.7% Green)

Adding in Northern Ireland would make it even more pronounced, as Nationalists MPs outnumber Unionists for the first time ever.

How long can the union in Scotlanf and NI last?


 I'm seeing several similar versions of this on social media this morning.  Give it up SQ please.  We can all read what we like into stats, it dosen't mean the conclusion is correct.  As an example, how about the only leader feeling she could form a govt by standing to point blank stop Brexit has barely reached double figures and lost her own seat?

I voted Tory yet readily admit that Boris is a liar, a coward and I do not fully trust him.  I think many people who voted for him would admit to similar.  What does that tell you about how dimly I viewed the alternatives and how fed up I am in the charade parliament has been for too long now.  Other points on social media seem to stop just short of Boris underway with death camps but all rationality is out the window at the moment.  Its 5 years of Tory for sure now but once Brexit has passed, there are an awful lot of voters who hold no loyalty to him and this huge majority could be for 5 years and 5 years only.


Well, I'm just noting that this seeming thunderbolt of clear and decisive clarion call settlement and a huge majority is actually not telling exactly the story it seems under the surface.

What is indisputable is it delivers a massive majority to Boris and he can now do as he pleases.

If you believe that he is the sort of individual that won't now use those 5 years to make as large and continuing power grab as possible and to consolidate his power as far into perpetuity as he is able, then you have studied his career over the last 25 years in a different way than have I.

Fair enough difference of opinion.

History shows countless examples of people holding their noses and voting for a candidate with the intention of balancing that back out at some time in the future, only to find that those chances are removed before time, and the equal chance never passes. Am I saying Boris is going to forego Parliament altogether and institute MArtial Law or something, no... probably not (though I wouldn't swear absolutely not to the idea). I am saying, considering who advises him, whom he models himself upon, the way he has behaved since becoming PM, I'm not optimistic that a massive majority gives him any disincentive to believe his own self-image and pursue his self-declared dream to become king of the world.

But, also, the facts are there. You may not like that the numbers show that the majority still voted for Rmain aligned parties.
But it's true. Reduce it to just statistics if that helps you. But it is an oddity of the data.
It's also not just true overall, it's true in each and every individual nation of the Kingdom that is also true. England came closest to voting in majority for leave parties  - 49.2% leave to 49.8% remain. But even there that does not reflect the massive victory that you will hear about. For completeness, the other leave % are: Wales 41.5%; Scotland 25.6%; Northern Ireland 42.3 % 

Something else: Boris is being feted for this amazing win. In 2017, the Tories were thought to have had a terrible almost catastrophic performance under May. Boris' landslide only represents an improvement of +1.2% of the vote over that 'disastrous' May performance. That CON vote share splits out weirdly and tellingly  versus 2017, in the 3 nations in which they field candidates: ENG +1.2%; SCO -3.5%; WAL +2.5%

But there is the massive majority.

Lib Dems on the other hand increased their national vote share the most of any party +4.2%. They were +4.6% in ENG, +2.8% in SCO, +1.5% in WAL.
And yet, their leader lost their seat, and they are in tatters.

All of which is to say that yes, the result is a landslide for Boris, but just looking at the numbers doesn't seem to back up it being this generationally definitive masterpiece election that is being suggested. I don't see why you seem to find it offensive to acknowledge these realities.

We use the FPTP system, Tories won. I'm not though going to start beatifying Johnson, or agreeing that this is, as sold in the papers, a massive vindication for Brexit, given the numbers. Neither am I going to grumble about or try to stop the winners legislative agenda. It was an election with no valid choice for me personally.

I think what the data seems to show is that Remain aligned parties lost the election rather than Brexit aligned parties winning it. Well, perhaps a Brexit aligned party did win it, only that party was the Brexit Party, not the Tories. Their decision not to contest all the seats allowed Brexit voters a singled unified choice to back their aspirations, and concentrated that vote in every such constituency.
On the contrary, Lib Dems and Labour stole votes from each other up and down the ticket, where a similarly unified single Remain aligned option would've carried the seat ie Labour + Lib Dem votes combined would have carried many seats if they had done a similar deal as the Tory/Brexit pact. But they did not, and this rather than some groundswell of Tory support or masterstroke of Boris strategy seems to have decided things, and proved grievously wounding to the remain aligned vote up and down the country.



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