Out of interest, I calculated an average from everyone for Laura and Tara if all the people that didn't put them in their top 10 ( 6 for Laura and 29 for Tara ) ranked them just one WR place below their #10 selection.
Results :
Laura overall then averages 210, as against her average from her 33 selectors of 189 and current ranking of WR 228.
Tara overall then averages 306, as against her average from her 10 selectors of 242 and current ranking 350.
So on that very conservative basis I can't prove that either's 'true' overall average would be lower than their current ranking. But certainly more towards it than my figures and much more towards it than the average from their selectors.
Yes, Tara's overall average especially, with 29 people not selecting her, would obviously be much lower. I only had her 18th on my prediction list at 462. I wonder in fact how much she will play this year. (I managed to predict 19 in the top 500 vs 12 that are there now )
Interesting times for the leading British women, and it will be intriguing to see how the predictions play out by the end of the year.
Here is an update following the French open. Brittak is still in the lead with same number of points as in April with Long time reader moving up into second., and TheTraveller2 into third place.
Helen40 has dropped to the bottom of the table, but a long way to go.
Points Table
Brittak
67
Long time reader
64
TheTraveller2
62
Jiwan
61
Nix
61
Tennpar
61
Jon
58
scottie1
58
hoots
56
JonH
56
brendan
55
Bolt
52
cakj1234
52
Michael D
52
jb288
51
paulsi
51
Canda
50
cecil
50
indiana
50
christ
49
Status Quo
49
flamingowings
48
Peter too
48
SuperT
48
kundalini
47
Sim
47
Strongbow
47
the addict
47
Mervatron2
46
Miriambee
46
Ian1314
45
theemptyvessel
44
wimdledont
43
Andy Parker
42
Grachka
42
telstar
42
vohor
41
Coup Droit
40
LordBrownof
40
Helen40
36
-- Edited by Sim on Tuesday 12th of June 2018 08:12:02 PM
Interesting if you look at our highest 8 averaged ranked players in Sim's table on the previous page, then our current actual best 8 have a better overall average ranking just now than those season end predictions.
Shows how well our top 8, more particularly 4 to 8, have done to exceed our normal optimism. Indeed blob ( haste yea back ) was insisting we were still being far too optimistic this year.
9 & 10 are not so good but still.
Predictions - totals of best average ranked :
1-3 : 192 4-8 : 1007 ( so 1-8 : 1199 ) 9-10 : 510 Total : 1709 ( overall average 170.9 )
Actual current post French Open rankings :
1-3 : 235 4-8 : 953 ( so 1-8 : 1188 ) 9-10 : 759 Total : 1947 ( overall average 194.7 )
And that's just in June with those 4-8 girls having been very much on the up. May this be even more marked in a few months time.
And actually if you compare the same 5 girls ( Katie B, Gabi, Harriet, Katy D and Katie S ) the difference for them is already even more marked, given Laura rather than Harriet is part of the predictions 4-8 ).
Those 5 predicted total : 1086 ( average 217.2
Those 5 current total : 953 ( average 190.6 )
-- Edited by indiana on Tuesday 12th of June 2018 10:44:33 PM
Interesting if you look at our highest 8 averaged ranked players in Sim's table on the previous page, then our current actual best 8 have a better overall average ranking just now than those season end predictions.
Shows how well our top 8, more particularly 4 to 8, have done to exceed our normal optimism. Indeed blob ( haste yea back ) was insisting we were still being far too optimistic this year.
9 & 10 are not so good but still.
Predictions - totals of best average ranked :
1-3 : 192 4-8 : 1007 ( so 1-8 : 1199 ) 9-10 : 510 Total : 1709 ( overall average 170.9 )
Actual current post French Open rankings :
1-3 : 235 4-8 : 953 ( so 1-8 : 1188 ) 9-10 : 759 Total : 1947 ( overall average 194.7 )
And that's just in June with those 4-8 girls having been very much on the up. May this be even more marked in a few months time.
And actually if you compare the same 5 girls ( Katie B, Gabi, Harriet, Katy D and Katie S ) the difference for them is already even more marked, given Laura rather than Harriet is part of the predictions 4-8 ).
Those 5 predicted total : 1086 ( average 217.2
Those 5 current total : 953 ( average 190.6 )
-- Edited by indiana on Tuesday 12th of June 2018 10:44:33 PM
Hi Indi - where you bored??! JK!!
PS the World Cup starts later this week, you can cheer Scotland on to aleviate the long summer nights!
PS I am only kidding - I actually liked the analysis!
Jo Konta 9
Gaby Taylor 98
Heather Watson 122
Katie Boulter 140
Naomi Broady 145
Harriet Dart 160
Katie Swan 180
Laura Robson 202
Katy Dunne 240
Tara Moore 274
That was mine, which I found when I logged on to my laptop earlier incidentally, I never posted it. If you recall I did post that Gaby would be number 2 and that Katie B and Harriet would do well this year. So Im doing pretty well here. And on the mens Ill post as well and youll remember I expected Cam to nearly catch Kyle and predict he will pass him after Aus Open, Im not as close with the rest although expect to be with Evo.
Thanks sim, by the looks of things Gabi and Jo are the predictions to have done me most damage, but not knowing the new bunch very well hasn't helped either.