1. Jo                    9
2. Heather            75
3. Naomi              95
4. Katie B             140
5. Gabby              170
6. Katie S             200
7. Laura               220
8. Katy D             260
9. Tara                290
10. Jodie               340

Oh gosh this is so difficult.  However assuming Freya is fit I'm sure she'll start climbing the rankings again so I'll go with her at No 10.  

Thanks for reminding me I needed to do this.  Hope this is ok as not sure how to edit my original post

-- Edited by SuperT on Saturday 30th of December 2017 08:30:11 PM

indiana wrote:

---

No problem. Don't blame me if Maia now finishes #10 

---

 Of course not!  And I've now figured out how to edit my original post.

While like so many people I really like many of your figures and graphs, I have quite serious issues with the above "Average Predicted Ranking Imorovement Per Player".

The biggest percentage green lines are for the two currently relatively lower ranked players ( Fran and Beth ) only selected for their top 10 by one person* so far. So 1) it is representative of only that one person and 2) because they have put these players in their top 10 they naturally show big rankings increases.

To a lesser extent we have a similar issue with the next 3 biggest prediction ranking increases in Freya, Jodie and Eden, selected so far by 10, 2 and 8 people* respectively. And similarly with some others.

I think it is reasonable to assume that these people who have not selected these players for their top 10 would on average predict significantly worse rankings for them so it is very misleading on first sight in respect of these players and certainly has to be taken in the context of being how their generally chief proponents see them performing in 2018.

In truth it's only fully representative for the 7 players selected by us all so far ( Jo, Heather, Naomi, Katie B, Katy D, Katie S, and Gabi ). Gabi's 53.2% is the biggest predicted improvement among these 7. Laura and Harriet have each been left out by 6 of us so even their lines are very probably a bit over projected as against if these other 6 people's thoughts were included.

Just saying ...

* PS: I had been recording the number of selections for each player as the thread went along, and given some revisions some of my figures here may well be slightly out, but it doesn't alter the principle that the lower ranked players, generally selected by relatively few ( in the main the upper part of the table ) have lines largely unrepresentative of the predictors as a whole.

-- Edited by indiana on Saturday 30th of December 2017 11:46:16 PM

Yes for Laura for instance, there have been a wide range of projections for her within the top 10 as you show, ranging from those who think she will improve to those who thing she will decline.... and then there are a further 6 people who think she will fall out of the top 10 altogether, and thus have her projected at 300+, which I'm sure would shift her average overall prediction to one of being a net decliner rather than improver. Similarly and even more so for Tara. It would actually be really interesting to have the 'true' averages of all those who received at least one top ten vote. I gave everyone within the present top 25 predicted rankings on my own list in order to arrive at the top 10.

Just out of interest how do you go about deciding who has won? Is it the person who gets the correct order 1 to 10 or the person who most closely matches the year end rankings of individual players? I can't imagine how you'd calculate the latter but since there are clearly some wizard statisticians on this forum I'm sure you'd find a way. It's not that I'm competitive or anything - just as a newbie I'm interested to understand how things work.

Wishing a very happy New Year to all

I've been enjoying watching this prediction competition for a couple of years now but haven't been brave enough to enter, until now! Here goes:
1. Jo K - 6
2. Naomi B - 60
3. Heather W - 80
4. Laura R - 160
5. Katie B - 170
6. Gabi T - 195
7. Katy D - 215
8. Katie S - 240
9. Freya C - 300
10. Harriet D - 350

My number 10 pick was going to be Maia but then I read about Harriet having been ill this year so I wish her a good recovery and to stay in the top 10, but good luck Maia anyway.