Here's another look at optimism. This time, just looking at our average predictions for each GB ranking spot for the GB Top 10. You can see the actual range of best to worst WTA rankings achieved in the whole of 2017 for each of the top 10 GB places (the grey range), and the average position throughout the year for that GB rank (the blue line). Then you have the average of all guesses so far for that GB rank from predictions so far in the 2018 competition (the gold line - includes all entries up to and including LordBrownof).
You can see how our predictions suggest that for 7 out of the top 10 places we believe that the year end rank for that GB place will exceed the best rank achieved by any player in that rank, at any point in 2017. For 2 of the remaining 3 places (3, 5) we also believe we will exceed the 2017 average, we just don't exceed 2017 best performance in our aspirations.
The only place where we see a regression is the top spot, and that obviously has a lot more room to fall than improve given Johanna's superlative 2017.
May our optimism be matched by the players performance - what a year it would be!
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Data I post, opinions I offer, 'facts' I assert, are almost certainly all stupidly wrong.
I have been an avid follower of the forum for a long time but this is my first post [...] Probably not as optimistic as some but best of luck to all our GB women for 2018.
Welcome out of the shadows, brittak Last year, miriambee's less optimistic listing won the competition quite easily, so perhaps you're similarly on to a winner.
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Data I post, opinions I offer, 'facts' I assert, are almost certainly all stupidly wrong.
I have been an avid follower of the forum for a long time but this is my first post [...] Probably not as optimistic as some but best of luck to all our GB women for 2018.
Welcome out of the shadows, brittak Last year, miriambee's less optimistic listing won the competition quite easily, so perhaps you're similarly on to a winner.
And welcome too brittak, though I'd still rate your predictions as relatively optimistic with 9 players under 240! We currently have 4
Steven doesn't seem to do the prediction contests. But yes expecting to see a few more pitch in before close of play.
Great to see how latter predictors have generally really been taking on board all blob's information on optimism - err, not
May the final positions tie in with general optimism !
There is of course a strong psychological (and healthy) element to the optimism... better to be setting stretch targets and then wanting to see players improve (even if the targets are optimistic), than to predict a fall... but not really want it to happen. That's unless one believes in reverse psychology aka Laura
As for the optimism, the other point is that I think people are happy to be optimistic on 5-6 upcoming players... and then see 1-2 of them really improve near those targets. The intrigue - and fun - of it is, which ones will actually do it?