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Post Info TOPIC: 2018 female prediction rankings


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2018 female prediction rankings


And one other interesting footnote from it too.... Emily Appleton shows she has a long, long, long way to go. Laura Sainsbury and even Tiffany William and Ella Taylor are streets ahead of her in the players they've beaten this year. In fact, if I was Emily Appleton, I would have taken up that US college scholarship, but people make their choices...

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I also believe Emily App should have taken the college option.
But, in her defence, I don't think you can directly compare the results of a player who was still actively playing juniors with those of one only playing adult tennis.
Emily's adult results are only one side of her performance this year.

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Michael D wrote:
Peter too wrote:

There is an interesting group in the 400+ bracket in my table F Jones, M Lumsden, E Silva, J Burrage, F Christie who all look as if they could well be inside the top 400 next year but will any of them make it into the UK top 10 by the end of the year?


This is a great table too Peter, really interesting! Sam does very well in it, but Beth also comes out of it surprisingly well, as does Emily A, even though she has not been playing much. And as you say from that group of Fran, Maia and Eden, who are slightly ahead of Jodie and Freya, it will be really interesting to see who kicks on in the coming year!



-- Edited by Michael D on Sunday 24th of December 2017 09:40:45 AM


 The two moving fastest up the rankings are 18 year old Jodie Burrage, a new entry this year and already up to 538, and 17 year old Fran Jones who jumped nearly 500 places to 683 this year. Both scored heavily in the 2nd half of the year as did Sarah Beth Grey and Emily Arbuthnot. 

 



-- Edited by Peter too on Sunday 24th of December 2017 11:11:13 AM

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The interesting question though is who will next year's Jodie and Fran be.

i.e. it's not a surprise at all that the top juniors make such a big jump up the rankings when they hit the adult tour - Fran's is a year younger so that is exciting, although it depended on her schedule (Fran seemed to have turned her back on juniors earlier than most); but Jodie's was almost a given.

The question is whether Ali Collins and Gemma Heath etc. will play adult and will make a similar mark. (It won't make top 10, in the same way that Jodie and Fran didn't, but it will give a sign of things to come).

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OK, time to give it a go, everyone has played out, additional information has not been lacking ...

1. Konta 14
2. Watson 96
3. Broady 140
4. Boulter 144
5. Swan 188
6. Robson 202
7. G Taylor 214
8. Dunne 270
9. Dart 304
10. Murray 322


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Going to be optimistic

1.  Jo Konta 5

2. Heather Watson 30

3. Laura Robson 75

4. Naomi Broady 85

5. Katie Boulter 110

6. Gabi Taylor  160

7. Tara Moore 175

8. Katie Swan  185

9. Katy Dunne 200

10. Francesca Jones 250



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Peter too wrote:

There is an interesting group in the 400+ bracket in my table F Jones, M Lumsden, E Silva, J Burrage, F Christie who all look as if they could well be inside the top 400 next year but will any of them make it into the UK top 10 by the end of the year?


This is very interesting, here's my run at it; making Excel do things a) it really wasn't designed to, and b) way beyond my skill level.
Stll, here we are, the blue lines are for the the top 3 ranked wins average that Peter invoked. Apologies to any colour-blind forumites for always using a R/G palette.

ruirN7r.png



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Thanks for the your Exel visualisation. A few players stand out:- Sam Murray has no losses above the blue line and Emily Arbuthnot and Francesca Jones have only one. That would suggest that all three have been playing in competitions below their true ability, otherwise they would have met and in some cases lost to more higher ranked players. It is probably true of all three that their rankings are lagging their true ability.

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Peter too wrote:

Thanks for the your Exel visualisation. A few players stand out:- Sam Murray has no losses above the blue line and Emily Arbuthnot and Francesca Jones have only one. That would suggest that all three have been playing in competitions below their true ability, otherwise they would have met and in some cases lost to more higher ranked players. It is probably true of all three that their rankings are lagging their true ability.


Wow, this is fantastic blob biggrin And I agree with you Peter, Sam's results have stood out a mile for me, and from your original list too. But Beth and Emily Arb are both really high too, and it is going to be exciting to see what Fran Jones can do once she moves up to the 25k level. The interesting thing about Beth in 2017 is that she has a far better record at 25k level than at 15k level -  a 64:50 win percentage respectively, which is quite amazing really. 



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Neither Emily Arb nor Fran's ranking can possibly be a true ranking, given neither played a complete pro year. Emily Arb won't next year either, presumably. I would imagine that Fran pretty much will (although she'll surely play Junior Wimbledon). Fingers crossed that her body holds up.

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Coup Droit wrote:

Neither Emily Arb nor Fran's ranking can possibly be a true ranking, given neither played a complete pro year. Emily Arb won't next year either, presumably. I would imagine that Fran pretty much will (although she'll surely play Junior Wimbledon). Fingers crossed that her body holds up.


Yes, Fran has only 9 counting events, Emily Arb just 6. Even Beth at 13 counters doesn't have a full quota yet.  



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Jon


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Ok, here goes:

1) Konta - 18
2) Watson - 70
3) Broady - 160
4) Boulter - 180
5) Taylor - 200
6) Dunne - 220
7) Swan - 250
8) Robson - 270
9) Dart 290
10) Murray - 310



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And mine finally. Not sure that Laura is going to see 2018 through, though I'm happy to be proved wrong. Excited to see what the group above 500 of Eden, Maia, Jodie, Freya, Beth and Fran are going to do this year. Stats show Sam should continue upwards if she carries on playing regularly, so hope she will, and hope Mandy recovers well too.

1) Konta - 6
2) Watson - 110
3) Boulter - 134
4) Broady - 156
5) Taylor - 178
6) Swan - 212
7) Dunne - 242
8) Murray - 283
9) Dart - 286
10) Silva - 305



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Very difficult...

1 Konta 4
2 Watson 55
3 Broady 90
4 Boulter 110
5 Swan 150
6 Robson 160
7 Taylor 200
8 Dunne 240
9 Moore 245
10 Murray 250

I'd love to see Mandy or Maia make the top 10, but think that injury and studies might prove too much impediment. Harriet, Freya, Eden, Beth, Jodie, Em Arb could also feature. Laura could finish anywhere between 50 and UNR(retired).

I'd also like to propose that we have a "control'' entry, taking the rankings on 1 Jan 2018, which would obviously start as the winner, with 100% accuracy. Be fun to see if/when anybody overhauls it.

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Here we go. Some thoughts...

Jo will have another good year but with Serena and Azarenka returning and Kvitova back for a full year, her ranking will drop even if the results overall are not dissimilar. Hev and Naomi don't have their coaching situations in the right place imho for what they're able to achieve, so I can't see either of them progressing. I'm a hopeless Robson optimist. Boulter, Taylor and Swan is a complete toss-up for who will finish ahead - I've gone for Boulter because she's played a few more big matches in Slam qualies this year. Freya could be the surprise package on talent alone but I think she's starting too far back to make a big dent.

Of course, if Eleanor Dean was miraculously fit for a season, she'd be a lock in this list...

1) Konta 12
2) Watson 65
3) Broady 120
4) Robson 140
5) Boulter 175
6) Swan 180
7) Taylor 215
8) Murray 245
9) Dunne 290
10) Christie - 300


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