2018 female prediction rankings

Jaggy1876 · Grand Slam Champion

2018 female prediction rankings

indiana · Tennis legend

And the current top 8, again points guaranteed for 19/11, less points to come off by then ( sorry, Naomi ! ) :

1. Konta 1170
2. Watson 628
3. Boulter 613
4. Dart 347 *
5. Taylor 336
6. Swan 286
7. Broady 230
8. Dunne 223

* Harriet's 13 points for this week included. Hopefully others will add too this coming week and beyond.

indiana · Tennis legend

Jaggy1876 wrote:
5 of my 10 are going to be within 5-10 spots of where I predicted. Should be bonus points for that. Laura is injured otherwise could be close and only slightly undercooked Katie at the expense of Gabi who has also had injury issues.

Ah, the predictions you found on your laptop in June.

Generally pretty good looking and if you ended within 5-10 WR places you would be getting high WR points.

5 points for within 5% of their final actual ranking, 4 points for between 5% and 10% of their final actual ranking ( etc to 1 point for between 20% and 25% out ). It's how the pretty objective system works ( as distinct to the subjective system you said it was the other day ). Such closeness is rewarded.

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

indiana wrote:
Jaggy1876 wrote:
5 of my 10 are going to be within 5-10 spots of where I predicted. Should be bonus points for that. Laura is injured otherwise could be close and only slightly undercooked Katie at the expense of Gabi who has also had injury issues.
Ah, the predictions you found on your laptop in June.
Generally pretty good looking and if you ended within 5-10 WR places you would be getting high WR points.
5 points for within 5% of their final actual ranking, 4 points for between 5% and 10% of their final actual ranking ( etc to 1 point for between 20% and 25% out ). It's how the pretty objective system works ( as distinct to the subjective system you said it was the other day ). Such closeness is rewarded.

biggrin

Jaggy1876 · Grand Slam Champion

Calling me a liar now. Nice work, I actually think I have it saved which will have a date on it. Can see if I can upload it, otherwise see you in court.

Andy Parker · Club Coach

See you in court - wow, some of you lot do take these forums a tad seriously (or was that a joke Jaggy?).

I wonder if I am the only one who has entered the competition, who has absolutely no idea how the points scoring works - the scoring sounded so complicated and reminded me of days of when maths got so obscure and difficult that I spent most of the lessons idling the time away sitting at the back of the maths class laughing a lot and occasionally floating paper aeroplanes towards the front and dreaming of more interesting things.

-- Edited by Andy Parker on Sunday 14th of October 2018 10:07:24 PM

Jaggy1876 · Grand Slam Champion

I had no idea how the points scoring worked, but then my entry this year didnt count as I missed the deadline and made it all up in June apparently (even though its still well off)

indiana · Tennis legend

blob wrote:
SuperT wrote:
Just out of interest how do you go about deciding who has won? Is it the person who gets the correct order 1 to 10 or the person who most closely matches the year end rankings of individual players? I can't imagine how you'd calculate the latter but since there are clearly some wizard statisticians on this forum I'm sure you'd find a way. It's not that I'm competitive or anything - just as a newbie I'm interested to understand how things work.

Wishing a very happy New Year to all
It's sim's system, and all credit and thanks goes to them.
You get points for how close you get in predicting the GB ranking spot for a player, and a separate set of points for how close you get to predicting the final WTA rank for a player, irrespective of wherther you get the GB ranking place for them correct or not. You can score in one category for a player whilst having got the other completely wrong.
Here, from queries made last year is sim's explanation:
Scoring system:
GB ranking. Spot on = 5pts, 1 out = 4 pts, 2 out = 3 pts, 3 out = 2 pts, 4 out or in top 10 = 1 pt
World ranking. Within 5% = 5pts, 5-10% out = 4 pts, 10-15% out = 3 pts, 15-20% = 2pts, 20-25% = 1pt.
The 1pt for being in GB top 10 was added as the the main aim is to predict who you think will be in the GB top 10.
Note it is possible to get points if a player finishes in GB 11,12,13 or 14 (e.g. you predict 10 and they finish 14 = 1pt.
Updates are usually after each Slam, and the final result after the respective YE Finals.
Here's the 2017 competition page on steven's site: http://www.britishtennis.net/predictions/2017%20Female%20Ranking%20predictions.htm

From earlier in the thread. Actual numerical examples to follow.

Andy Parker · Club Coach

Thanks for those points updates Indiana.

I think for stupid people, such as myself, that it really is just a case of making 10 guesses and then leaving the mathematicians to calculate how you have done. I think the fact that my original entry only had nine players in it gives you some idea of my ability at maths; I was sure I had used all my fingers on both hands when I made the original predictions.

indiana · Tennis legend

Right, say you predicted Katy D to be GB #6 and WR 200 ...

Then if she ends up as now as GB #8 and WR 233 :

GB points for KD : 3 points since prediction #6 would be 2 places out from actual #8.

WR points for KD : 3 points again in this case since out from WR by 33/233 = 14.2% ( ie between 10% and 15% )

Total for the KD prediction would be 6 points.

A maximum total of 10 points for a player is achieved if getting the GB ranking spot on and getting the WR less than 5% away from the actual WR. 10 players picked so the maximum possible total score is 100.

0 total points for one of your top 10 predictions if : for GB ranking they end up not in the top 10 and more than 4 places out ( you do get 1 point if they finish inside the top 10 even if more than 4 places out ). So 0 GB points if predicting a player to be GB #8 and she ends up #13 or lower. And 0 WR points if your WR prediction is greater than 25% away from her final WR.

That's the maths, which I hope is helpful to some. But at the end of the day you can make it just about predicting the GB top 10 and getting their GB ranking and WR as close as possible, and then let Sim do the counting ( just as I see you suggest, Andy ).

-- Edited by indiana on Sunday 14th of October 2018 10:53:30 PM

telstar · Strong Club Player

Jaggy1876 wrote:
5 of my 10 are going to be within 5-10 spots of where I predicted. Should be bonus points for that. Laura is injured otherwise could be close and only slightly undercooked Katie at the expense of Gabi who has also had injury issues.

I guess you must know Gabriella Taylor really well!

JonH · All-time great

Andy Parker wrote:
See you in court - wow, some of you lot do take these forums a tad seriously (or was that a joke Jaggy?).

I wonder if I am the only one who has entered the competition, who has absolutely no idea how the points scoring works - the scoring sounded so complicated and reminded me of days of when maths got so obscure and difficult that I spent most of the lessons idling the time away sitting at the back of the maths class laughing a lot and occasionally floating paper aeroplanes towards the front and dreaming of more interesting things.

-- Edited by Andy Parker on Sunday 14th of October 2018 10:07:24 PM

biggrin count me as #2 - all good fun though!

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

JonH wrote:
Andy Parker wrote:
See you in court - wow, some of you lot do take these forums a tad seriously (or was that a joke Jaggy?).

I wonder if I am the only one who has entered the competition, who has absolutely no idea how the points scoring works - the scoring sounded so complicated and reminded me of days of when maths got so obscure and difficult that I spent most of the lessons idling the time away sitting at the back of the maths class laughing a lot and occasionally floating paper aeroplanes towards the front and dreaming of more interesting things.

-- Edited by Andy Parker on Sunday 14th of October 2018 10:07:24 PM
count me as #2 - all good fun though!

I had zero idea how it worked until late on two/three years ago when - after a question - Sim said, kindly, something along the lines of 'SURELY you understand this, really, CD, it's not that tricky' or something similar and I thought 'blimey, OK, make an effort, CD' and spent the next 15 mins (at least cry ) figuring it out.

And I would like to point out that that was that year, having zero clue, that I won the whole shebang smile - and have gone downhill rapidly since cry - so the moral is, don't worry !

christ · Futures level

indiana wrote:
Right, say you predicted Katy D to be GB #6 and WR 200 ...
Then if she ends up as now as GB #8 and WR 233 :

GB points for KD : 3 points since prediction #6 would be 2 places out from actual #8.

WR points for KD : 3 points again in this case since out from WR by 33/233 = 14.2% ( ie between 10% and 15% )

Why is it not 33/200 (=16.5%)? The prediction was 200, so surely the error is related to the prediction, not the actual?

(Not that it is my sum, nor do I have/ want a vote on it, and many thanks to Sim for running the competition, and his rules obviously rule, and to be honest it doesn't make much difference because of the roundabouts/ swings rule of mathematics, but this is the sort of thing that keeps me awake at night!!)

Michael D · All-time great

christ wrote:
indiana wrote:
Right, say you predicted Katy D to be GB #6 and WR 200 ...
Then if she ends up as now as GB #8 and WR 233 :

GB points for KD : 3 points since prediction #6 would be 2 places out from actual #8.

WR points for KD : 3 points again in this case since out from WR by 33/233 = 14.2% ( ie between 10% and 15% )

Why is it not 33/200 (=16.5%)? The prediction was 200, so surely the error is related to the prediction, not the actual?
(Not that it is my sum, nor do I have/ want a vote on it, and many thanks to Sim for running the competition, and his rules obviously rule, and to be honest it doesn't make much difference because of the roundabouts/ swings rule of mathematics, but this is the sort of thing that keeps me awake at night!!)

I think you could do it either way, c, depends on the method Sim decides to use. What's important is that he is consistent in using it. For me it makes more sense to look at the % deviation from the actual ranking.