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Post Info TOPIC: 2018 female prediction rankings


Tennis legend

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2018 female prediction rankings


Yes, I tend to agree you could do it either way. But effectively the method chosen is based on the % that the prediction is away from the final outcome. Although that method is not specified in Sim's explanation that I copied above I suspect that it has been in the past and certainly is how it is scored in practice. And again I'd agree that the most important thing is that is how it is consistently calculated.

It does mean that equal number of places out either way result in the same % score so the same points.

eg. If actual is 100, a prediction of 80 will be considered 20/100 out = 20% and a prediction of 120 will be 20/100 = 20%, rather than 20/80 = 25% and 20/120 = 16.67% respectively.



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indiana wrote:

Yes, I tend to agree you could do it either way. But effectively the method chosen is based on the % that the prediction is away from the final outcome. Although that method is not specified in Sim's explanation that I copied above I suspect that it has been in the past and certainly is how it is scored in practice. And again I'd agree that the most important thing is that is how it is consistently calculated.

It does mean that equal number of places out either way result in the same % score so the same points.

eg. If actual is 100, a prediction of 80 will be considered 20/100 out = 20% and a prediction of 120 will be 20/100 = 20%, rather than 20/80 = 25% and 20/120 = 16.67% respectively.


 I agree.

 

... but on the other hand, a prediction of 80 is 33% out if the actual is 60, but only 20% out if the actual is 100, when they are both the same distance away!



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Sim


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Wow lots of discussion around the scoring.

Indy's explanation is correct and yes the % difference for the world ranking starts from the actual ranking and not the predicted one.

It could be done either way round but that is just the way I started it and I have used the same scoring system since.

I think there was a discussion about players retiring or being injured but that would complicate the system a lot - would you have to have a 11th player who could be counted and how many weeks would a player have to be injured before they did not count. then what if 2 players injured

Also what about suspensions, pregnancy....

Of course if there is a consensus to change the scoring system then that could be put in place for 2019 but you can't change the rules after you have started.

If i have time I will update the tables this week as getting close to the end of the season.

The season end date has always been the Monday after the ATP tour finals although this does not have any particular relevance for the women but seems better than having 2 different end dates.

Probably good idea to stick the scoring system at or near the top of each year's thread.



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I think, as someone said above, it's all perfect, as long as it's the same for everyone and the calculations are there for people to look at (for them that wants !!!!)

And yes, injuries, suspensions, retirements etc. etc. etc. are all just part and parcel. You can't factor them in.

And, Lord, there was fireworks when Bedene changed nationality to GB and some of us had him in the top 10 for that year - lots of VERY unhappy punters. But that's exactly what it was, a punt, like any punt. And it hardly happens that often.

Andy's fitness will obviously be a huge punt for next year. As has Laura's been for many of us (I've stuck by her each year and so am thinking of - reverse psychology style - dropping her for next year to bring her good luck). Evo's ban came as a nasty shock, to many predictors as well as fans.

But clarity is good. And so it's just the top ten at the end of the sporting year. End of.

Great job, Sim.

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Not sure I would have liked the alternative method for Andy's current WR difference. If it started from the prediction my difference would currently be 262/1 = 26,200% ! 

And yes, great job, Sim.



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telstar wrote:
Jaggy1876 wrote:

5 of my 10 are going to be within 5-10 spots of where I predicted. Should be bonus points for that. Laura is injured otherwise could be close and only slightly undercooked Katie at the expense of Gabi who has also had injury issues.


 I guess you must know Gabriella Taylor really well!


 Nice trolling there. Gabi short for Gabriella, Andy short for Andrew.

Lissey short for Alicia? No.

Other crackers were Dasha remember that? For Danielle. Seems to apply to the women mainly, creepy man posters perhaps.



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Words fail me so I won't bother ...



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Jaggy1876 wrote:
telstar wrote:
Jaggy1876 wrote:

5 of my 10 are going to be within 5-10 spots of where I predicted. Should be bonus points for that. Laura is injured otherwise could be close and only slightly undercooked Katie at the expense of Gabi who has also had injury issues.


 I guess you must know Gabriella Taylor really well!


 Nice trolling there. Gabi short for Gabriella, Andy short for Andrew.

Lissey short for Alicia? No.

Other crackers were Dasha remember that? For Danielle. Seems to apply to the women mainly, creepy man posters perhaps.


Dear Jagster, I assume you're having a laugh.

The woman goes by Lissey - see her twitter account: 

Alicia Barnett

@LisseyBarnett

And as per the article about her:

On Wednesday 18 July, Alicia Barnett or Lissey as she likes to be known stunned the world number 155 Olivia Rogowska for the loss of just one game. Having successfully hurdled the qualifying rounds, the British 24 year-old reached her first ever semi-final stage of an ITF $25k tournament in Gatineau, Canada.

As do lots of other Alicias, in fact....



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Lissey Barnett from now on then. Someone inform the ITF etc then. Seems to be listed as Alicia. Katherine Boulter Ive heard Katie likes to be known as. Thats an exclusive by the way.

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That's up to Lissey as it is say Dan Evans to get Daniel changed if he wants. Some folk bother to change what they were originally registered as, if generally known by a different name. Loads don't.



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what have we become?
sad

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All-time great

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Jaggy1876 wrote:

Lissey Barnett from now on then. Someone inform the ITF etc then. Seems to be listed as Alicia. Katherine Boulter Ive heard Katie likes to be known as. Thats an exclusive by the way.


Funnily enough Gabi Taylor is still listed by the ITF as Gabriella Taylor, but you're quite happy with the Gabi there Jaggy?

I think this bone expired yesterday, good to let it go. 

But since you have persisted with the issue, I think it's good to be clear that all posters on this site do use an informal principle, and that if a name other than their ITF listed name is used, it is to use names that players themselves are clearly comfortable with, either because they use them in social media accounts, or have in fact said so to someone posting here. Names are not invented nor used in any way that could be deemed as demeaning or belittling to anyone. And at this point, I will let go myself too.   



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Jaggy1876 wrote:
telstar wrote:
Jaggy1876 wrote:

5 of my 10 are going to be within 5-10 spots of where I predicted. Should be bonus points for that. Laura is injured otherwise could be close and only slightly undercooked Katie at the expense of Gabi who has also had injury issues.


 I guess you must know Gabriella Taylor really well!


 Nice trolling there. Gabi short for Gabriella, Andy short for Andrew.

Lissey short for Alicia? No.

Other crackers were Dasha remember that? For Danielle. Seems to apply to the women mainly, creepy man posters perhaps.


 Oh look!   https://www.coretennis.net/tennis-player/dasha-konotoptseva/13966/ It must be those creepy men on Core Tennis. And by your reckoning it should be Gabri Taylor...



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KK


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Odd to find myself on Jaggy's side, but 'Lissey' irritates me too.  It is a different from Dan, Andy and Katie in that it is not a regular shortening.  If it had been Al or Ally I would not have been irritated.



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KK wrote:

Odd to find myself on Jaggy's side, but 'Lissey' irritates me too.  It is a different from Dan, Andy and Katie in that it is not a regular shortening.  If it had been Al or Ally I would not have been irritated.


 Yes, but it's what she uses, so the choices are Lissey or Alicia KK. 



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