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Post Info TOPIC: 2015 male ranking predictions


Tennis legend

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2015 male ranking predictions


As it is now December, it may be wise to start a separate thread to predict 2105 male rankings.

I know we had a board competition last time, but that is purely down for a volunteer if they wish to run again, but no reason why we shouldn't put down predictions again.

 

Plenty of things to consider:

Is Aljaz Bedene going to take up GB citizenship and switch countires

Will Dan Evans ever re-appear and if so in what sort of form

Will Oli Golding re-appear

Which of the promising players will develop and jump the rankings most quickly

Any players going to jump up the rankings dramatically



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Tennis legend

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Provisionally done a top 20:

Murray 4
J Ward 88
Edmund 110
Broady 130
Bedene 140
Klein 170
A Ward 195
Corrie 210
Willis 295
Farquharson 310
Milton 320
Smethurst 325
Cox 340
Bambridge 380
Gabb 450
Gosea 475
Evans 478
Pauffley 480
Hewitt 540
Carpenter 550

I expect Bedene to switch and query DC rules. Evo will probably start the season and lose interest at future level and give up. I don't see Golding coming back straight away.

The big movers Alex W and Tom F assuming they get a full season. I suspect the likes of Rice and Smethurst will struggle a little next year.




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Tennis legend

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paulisi wrote:

Provisionally done a top 20:

Murray 4
J Ward 88
Edmund 110
Broady 130
Bedene 140
Klein 170
A Ward 195
Corrie 210
Willis 295
Farquharson 310
Milton 320
Smethurst 325
Cox 340
Bambridge 380
Gabb 450
Gosea 475
Evans 478
Pauffley 480
Hewitt 540
Carpenter 550

I expect Bedene to switch and query DC rules. Evo will probably start the season and lose interest at future level and give up. I don't see Golding coming back straight away.

The big movers Alex W and Tom F assuming they get a full season. I suspect the likes of Rice and Smethurst will struggle a little next year.



 

Well done, brave man !

I assume you've got the right to change your mind though ? As you say, provisional ? Doesn't seem right that you get penalised for putting it in 6 weeks earlier than everyone else . . . smile



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Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

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Murray 6
James Ward 95
Liam 145
Kyle 160
Dan Evans 175
Ed Corrie 240
Klein 250
Smethurst 265
Willis 275
Cox 280

10 is as many as I can manage. No idea on Bedene. Evo to do ok when fit. Oli I'm guessing will seek fame and fortune through another route (but what do I know ? 12 months ago I was predicting Oli to finish 2014 inside the top 200).

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Tennis legend

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paulisi wrote:

Provisionally done a top 20:

Murray 4
J Ward 88
Edmund 110
Broady 130
Bedene 140
Klein 170
A Ward 195
Corrie 210
Willis 295
Farquharson 310
Milton 320
Smethurst 325
Cox 340
Bambridge 380
Gabb 450
Gosea 475
Evans 478
Pauffley 480
Hewitt 540
Carpenter 550

I expect Bedene to switch and query DC rules. Evo will probably start the season and lose interest at future level and give up. I don't see Golding coming back straight away.

The big movers Alex W and Tom F assuming they get a full season. I suspect the likes of Rice and Smethurst will struggle a little next year.



 If rumours are true, then we may not see Hewitt and Carpenter in 2015, so I will replace with JWH 603 and Salisbury 713



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Tennis legend

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A Murray 4
K Edmund 122
J Ward 135
L Broady 141
B Klein 196
D Smethurst 235
A Ward 276
M Willis 282
E Corrie 303
D Cox 323


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Challenger level

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A Murray 4

J Ward 95

K Edmund 125

L Broady 170

A Ward 185

B Klein 195

D Smethurst 235

D Cox 280

E Corrie 295

J Ward Hibbert 325



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Pro player

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A Murray 3
James Ward 86
K Edmund 101
A Bedene 120
L Broady 171
D Cox 230
D Smethurst 250
B Klein 300
E Corrie 303
Gosea 320



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Challenger qualifying

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Murray 3
J Ward 106
L Broady 120
K Edmund 134
A Ward 170 (if fit!)
B Klein 190
E Corrie 210
D Cox 213
M Willis 230
Evo 240 (then quit)

D Smethurst 245
L Bambridge 320



-- Edited by Jaffa on Tuesday 23rd of December 2014 10:45:24 AM

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County player

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Why change a winning formula, the Index-Tracker Fund of tennis punditry?

Murray 6
J Ward 107
Edmund 193
Broady 195
Corrie 236
Klein 254
Smethurst 288
Cox 304
Evans 306
A Ward 347

Yes, my prediction is that every player will finish 2015 in exactly the same position as they start it. The triumph of empiricism over the tiniest vestige of sentiment.

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"Where Ratty leads - the rest soon follow" (Professor Henry Brubaker - The Institute of Studies)



All-time great

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The index-tracker was certainly successful relative to the competition - you're champion fair and square, Ratty! But looking at what it would have predicted relative to actuality, I think what it primarily shows  is less how accurate the thesis that people don't change is, and more just how far off the rest of us have been, whether through enthusiasm, misplaced sentiment or simply lack of forecasting skills.

 

Murray                  4 - 6
Evans               150 - 306
Ward                 161 - 107
Cox                   251- 304
Corrie               299 - 236
Rice                  319 - no longer in top 10
Willis                351 - no longer in top 10
KE                    377 - 193
Klein                 389- 254
Golding            406 - np, not in top 10
Smethurst        407 - 288
Ward (A)           411 - 347
Broady              473 - 195



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Tennis legend

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Be very interesting to see how this "Index-Tracker" goes. Not seen anyone predict just using current rankings before and I include Ratty last year, most notably with on 23/12/13 : Ratty predictions of James 250 when actually then ranked 161 and Evo 280 ( ultimately a very good prediction ) when then ranked 150, and just 2 ( Andy and Ed, each just one away ) predicted to be within 40 of their then rankings.

Very good by Ratty to win last year, but he seems to be again rewriting history as to how he did it.

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County player

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Yes, it's odd how the memory plays tricks, I was convinced that with the exception of a hunch about Dan Evans, I'd assumed zero average progress.

Anyway, dull and heartless it my be, but on the basis that there is no particular reason to assume average movement up or down, going for the status quo looks like the way to go.

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"Where Ratty leads - the rest soon follow" (Professor Henry Brubaker - The Institute of Studies)



Futures level

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I have also decided to go with a system for this year as my hopeless optimism always leaves me at the bottom of the pile. So...

My system was to add together the last 6 point scorers per player for 2014 and find the average 'points haul' for these 6 tournaments and multiply by 18 (so basically carrying last years form and having 18 scoring tournaments). I do not want to include Bedene or Klein in my predictions but have worked them out anyway...

Player Ranking for end of 2015 (points scored in brackets)

1)murray - 9 (4200 points)

(Bedene) - 119 - 465points)

2)j ward - 127 (432 points) - This is probably lower then I would really estimate as Ward is likely to have more than 18 scorers
3)d evans - 129 (426 points) - this includes his Zagreb run so a bit skewn
4)edmund - 129 (423 points)
5)broady - 136 (396 points)
6) corrie - 153 (342 points)

(Klien - 195 - 255 points)

7)cox - 206 (237 points)
8)award - 226 (213 points)
9) willis - 274 (183 points)
10) farquharson - 291 (168 points)



Other ones I worked out:

Ward-Hibbit -353 (126 points)
Rice - 353 (126 points) - = his current ranking
Milton - 363 (120 points)
smethurst - 509 (66 points) - I would have put Smethurst in my top 10 but I can't fight the system!





-- Edited by freerider on Wednesday 24th of December 2014 01:38:25 PM

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Tennis legend

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Murray - 8
Dino - 111
Broady - 157
Edmund - 183
Evans - 229
Cox - 244
Corrie - 261
Klein - 279
Smethurst - 299
Award - 310



Ohh, and CD to overtake Indy's post count by the first week of Wimbledon.

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