Week 46 - ATP World Tour Finals - London (Hard)

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

RE: Week 46 - ATP World Tour Finals - London (Hard)

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

BBC now reporting that the change means Andy now has to beat Roger to go through. It's on the BBC website - so it must be true.

daisy · County player

Bob in Spain wrote:
Madeline wrote:
Yes, it counts for Nishikori. It would be a bit unfair if a player is penalised because his opponent had to withdraw.
OK. So here's the big question. If Ferrer wins for example 6-1 6-1 and Fed beats Murray in straight sets. then Murray, Ferrer and Nishikori will all have won 2 sets and Ferrer would definitely have the best games ratio. So in this instance, does Ferrer go on to the semis ?
If that is the case, it could definitely be argued that his games ratio has benefitted from not having to play the other 2 matches. Or does his games ratio take into account the two matches played by Raonic ?
This is going to be fun.

Ferrer cannot qualify for the Semi's; he'll have only played 1 match.

I think Madeline may be about to post the permutations but basically Andy must beat Federer in 2 sets and even then there may be a games countback to decide whether he or Nishi goes through.

At least he'll know what he has to do before he steps on court.

Miriambee · Futures level

the atp at 12.59 are still talking about a match between Raonic and Nishikori.

atp just caught up now.

-- Edited by Miriambee on Thursday 13th of November 2014 01:05:54 PM

indiana · Tennis legend

If Andy wins and Kei loses, Andy is through.

If Kei wins and Andy loses, Kei is through.

After that I'm out of here for now, but I do hope that there is not some stupid anomaly that Kei can get through with a less favourable combination than was previously the case !

indiana · Tennis legend

Andy could get through without winning before. If he can't now, BOOO !!!

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

From the BBC website:

1. If Federer beats Murray and Nishikori beat Ferrer, Federer wins the group and Nishikori qualifies second
2. If Federer beats Murray and Ferrer beats Nishikori, Federer wins the group and Nishikori qualifies second
3. If Murray beats Federer in two sets and Ferrer beats Nishikori, Murray wins the group and Federer qualifies second
4. If Murray beats Federer in two sets and Nishikori beats Ferrer in two sets, it will come down to the percentage of games won between Federer, Murray and Nishikori
5. If Murray defeats Federer in two sets and Nishikori defeats Ferrer in three sets, Murray wins group and Federer qualifies second.
6. If Murray beats Federer in three sets and Nishikori beats Ferrer in two sets, Federer wins the group and Nishikori qualifies second
7. If Murray defeats Federer in three sets and Nishikori defeats Ferrer in three sets, Federer wins the group and Nishikori qualifies second

indiana · Tennis legend

On the other hand says he calming...

The odds were previously that Nishikori would have beaten Raonic so Andy would have had to beat Fed. And Kei might have thrashed Raonic, especially a Raonic carrying an injury, so Andy may have had to beat Fed in a pretty decisive straight sets.

I "think" Andy has only lost the already fairly unlikely scenario that he could possibly get through even if he lost to Fed.

And I "think" the tiebreak if Andy, Fed and Kei all end with 2 wins remains pretty much the same. If they all finish 2-1 in matches and 4-2 in sets, will the games won % calculation count all 3 of their matches or just the matches amongst themselves ?

indiana · Tennis legend

Thank, Bob, got it apart from my previous question re your / the BBC point 4.

Julia Carrot · All-time great

indiana wrote:
On the other hand says he calming...

The odds were previously that Nishikori would have beaten Raonic so Andy would have had to beat Fed. And Kei might have thrashed Raonic, especially a Raonic carrying an injury, so Andy may have had to beat Fed in a pretty decisive straight sets.

I "think" Andy has only lost the already fairly unlikely scenario that he could possibly get through even if he lost to Fed.

And I "think" the tiebreak if Andy, Fed and Kei all end with 2 wins remains pretty much the same. If they all finish 2-1 in matches and 4-2 in sets, will the games won % calculation count all 3 of their matches or just the matches amongst themselves ?

I sincerely hope Andy is calming, 'cos knowing him he may have gone fairly ballistic at this change and wasted a lot of energy before he even plays tonight.

Let's hope he reads your post. It puts a very 'reasonable' perspective on things !!!

BeefyDeedz · Pro player

I doubt that Andy would be going ballistic, but if he was then he would need to give his head a shake. He had his chance of comfort when he started his campaign against Nishikori and failed to take a set off him, as I'm sure he knows.

indiana · Tennis legend

Nishikori beats Ferrer 4-6 6-4 6-1

Andy will now have to beat Fed in two sets, in which case he would win the group ( ! ) on H-H vs Fed and Fed would be second.

If Andy beats Fed in three sets he's out. Fed wins the group and Nishikori would be second on H-H vs Andy.

So 2nd is not an option, its win the group or out. It's lucky that the former "just" involves beating Fed ( who is through now whatever ) in two sets.

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

So basically then, Murray has to win in straight sets or he is going home. (or off to that stupid All Star rubbish or whatever they call it). I don't know if it will work in Andy's favour, but with Ferrer taking a set off Nishikori, that means Roger is through to the semis regardless of the result later.

If Andy COULD win in straight sets, the big bonus is that he will top the group and avoid Djoko in the semis.

Darn it.

Indi types so much faster than I do cry

-- Edited by Bob in Spain on Thursday 13th of November 2014 04:26:20 PM

indiana · Tennis legend

Indi might have written all but the third set score when it became extremely likely that Nishikori was going to win that final set :)

philwrig · Hall of fame

The Maths is straightforward, the task anything but, the route through to the final after the straight set victory very enticing, stranger things have happened.