What about a win being important to keep him on track for the US Open title? Does no one fancy his chances? Personally, I think he's there or thereabouts.
Oh, I think I'd still put it ahead of this year's French Open ( even though he did really well to reach the SF ) or virtually any French Open.
I'd make the Tsonga match about 50/50, pretty much related to Madeline's points.
Andy hasn't beaten a top 10 player since he won Wimbledon ( and Tsonga is in decent form ), but for some time he has comparatively performed better in Slams than other tournaments and appeared generally more focussed.
1 To stop Tsonga overtaking him in the rankings, and increase his chances of getting to the WTF
2 To break the duck of not beating a top 10 player this year
3 To carry on his streak of reaching at least Slam quarter-finals, increasing it to 15
4 and last but not least, for his own self-confidence.
All in all I think this is a huge match for Andy. If he loses he will be at least 355 points off 8th place in the race, and probably closer to 500. That is a lot of points to make up in the last couple of months unless he wins Shanghai or Paris.
7-5 Murray, great first set. Tsonga looks to me like he's lost weight.
Murray playing better when he moves Tsonga around with variety rather than constantly directing play into Tsonga's backhand
allowing Tsonga to stay put while moving Murray around. Interesting match tactically.