RJA wrote:

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indiana wrote:

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Hmm, maybe fair to a limited extent, but for me a lot is down to the individuals. For instance, I thought there were far too many "oh wow is me !" comparisons ( who's looking at you, korriban ? :) ) being made last year, particularly in respect of Oli, of different similar age players.

It is not being a little wise after the event to mention Oli's progress recently, because last year quite a number of us were saying that different players mature at different rates and that Oli was possibly still a very good prospect if just taking time to mature in a number of areas.

Also we will be well aware of players like Thiem from other countries, who have made a very good junior to senior transition and probably don't pick up on many that haven't. No doubt the Austrian Tennis Discussion Forum could find some examples.

And here Kyle has made a very good transition as against say Oli initially ( and probably some players from other countries ). But I wouldn't put money on which of these two will ultimately go further.

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Well in all fairness I don't think it is unfair to point out that two of Oli's peers (Vesely and Thiem) have progressed far quicker than he has. I have done so in the past and I make no apologies for doing so. It is of course the case that some players mature faster than others and it is quite possible that Oli will have a better career than Vesely on Thiem but at the moment I wouldn't bet on it. Oli has had some good results recently but he is a million miles away from the tennis that Thiem produced for much of the match against Andy.

If you were to go back 2 years and say Vesely, Thiem and Golding. 1 well in the top 100, another on the brink of the top 100 and another roughly 400. How many if us would have put Oli in the latter category?

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I always agreed that players mature at different speeds, but however you look at it, Vesely and Thiem have probably overachieved against their personal targets, and Oli himself would probably say he is behind where he hoped to be. Others too....many of them also affected by injuries have plateaued or stalled.....Luke Saville, Jason Kubler, even Bjorn Fratangelo has taken time to push on.

I'm confident this can be Oli's year to take the next step, and I think he can make it inside 200 at some point in 2014. That will require a shift to $15ks and CHs in fairly short order, and a decent grass court run. But some big points in Portugal would come in hany when it stops raining!

I do think Thiem may well be the star player of the year of 93. He is now guaranteed to be inside 100 next week. 

Obviously all players mature and progress at different rates, and the future is notoriously difficult to predict.  However,  I do feel that players who take too long to move through the lower levels of competition run the risk of getting 'stuck'.  By this I mean that, regardless of potential and ability, their tennis can plateau at the level required for lower competitions and it can be hard for them to raise their game and self belief to move on up.  The bar to the next level just starts looking impossibly high.  I mentioned that I thought this might have happened to Oli on another rain-soaked thread somewhere, and other posters have expressed similar feelings in relation to Willis and Burton.  I feel British players are particularly prone to this, both men and women.  Scheduling seems to be so cautious that players end up really solid low-level players, missing out on the kind of matches that would improve them and help realise their potential until eventually they don't really believe they can make the jump.  Generalisations are dangerous, I know, but it seems to me that foreign players are often more willing to be ambitious in their schedules - mixing in a few higher grade tournaments along with the bread and butter lower events.  The matches they lose in those raise their game, any win, due to a lucky draw or good play brings rewards in rankings with all the associated benefits.