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Coup Droit


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RE: 2014 male ranking predictions
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Didn't think I'd come jumping to Ratty' defense (!), but the comment above might seem a bit a little unfair.

I don't think one can criticise Ratty for his strategy; he/she might have taken the competition seriously and tried hard to come up with a theory that would yield results. Can't blame him for that. It worked.

He also might be a glass-half-empty, slightly dour person but then very pleasantly surprised when people do well. For tennis or anything else. Not a bad way to be in many ways.

I also quite like a counter to unbridled enthusiasm (although you can have too much of a good thing . .. :)).

However, as you say Spectator, people use the competition differnently and that is one of the reasons it's so cute. Along your lines of wishing players well, I like sending out a message to my 'fave' players - I had mega jumps for James, Dan S., JWH and Marcus. Just a public statement of faith. It means some have to left by the wayside even though they're 'good bets'. There's no money involved; I like the positive feelgood vibe - but I can't criticise the more clear thinking rodent realist for looking at it differently.

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indiana


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At least "Wisdom of Crowds" didn't get another airing and quite right too :)

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Spectator


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Sorry, CD, I wasn't being critical of Ratty's strategy - and apologise to him and others if it came across that way. But I was saying that I didn't think it was a validation of reversion to the mean as a general principle, as per his final question ... and giving the reason why I thought so. My second comment was designed to indicate precisely that I did think that where he perhaps had the winning advantage over the rest of us was in not being blinded by hope. But I didn't want that to sound too critical of those of us who have favourite players and go with hope ... hence the final comment.

Just shows the virtue of remaining silent ....





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indiana


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Make of this what you will, but in the very first table of the year that Sim produced on 3rd January ( basically indicating as he said who had generally predicted closest to the then rankings, i.e. "who is more conservative ( less change)" :

Our ultimate winner, Ratty, was 7th and our ultimate runner up, Salmon, was right down in 15th place.

The next three finishers, Imoen, Indiana and Paulisi were 8th, 5th and 3rd respectively at the start, so in this fairly quick back of a fag packet look ( there will no doubt be a few nuances ) the top 5 finishers overall leaned to being "conservative", but were not initially right at the top and indeed Salmon actually on average seems to have been pretty unconservative.

I'm not seeing a firm indication that conservatism / little change was particularly the way to go. In truth I did actually expect to find more correlation.

But as was said, there were actually quite a few big changes so different approaches and probably some looking very infividually at each player, bore fruit.

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indiana


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I think I have a slightly different take to Spectator about on average over optimistic rankings. Actually, I think a lot of what turns out to be over optimism ( though maybe overall less this year and for some players over pessimism ) in predictions is to a large extent subconscious.

I would guess that most folk actually DO think they are making their reasonable best predictions rather than put pretty good rankings down in "blind hope". But when it comes to it I think the mind ( partly because it is what we deepdown want ) takes more on board the good that could happen than the bad.

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philwrig


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Surely if you want to WIN a predictions contest, your predictions have to be realistic, if you don't want to WIN, then fair enough place unrealistic expectations on some players.

The one factor we have no control over when making predictions is injuries, hence anyone predicting disappointing seasons for Evo, would have got lucky, and those that predicted stellar seasons for Smethy, Coxy and Alex got very unlucky. And then of course who could have predicted Oli's situation.

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indiana


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Indeed, Phil, and my point ( in amongst my subconscious stuff ) was that I think most folk are trying to win.

And Ratty won, well done him.

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