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Post Info TOPIC: 2014 male ranking predictions


Tennis legend

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RE: 2014 male ranking predictions


With Dave Rice losing his SF in Bath the final place in the top 10 for Monday week is almost certainly* between Alex Ward and Marcus Willis, both currently in running ( well Marcus will be running ) on 128 ranking points with Alex evidently for now clinging on to that 10th spot on tiebreak. So Marcus needs just a single further point ( clearly it will be none or more than that ) this week and / or next week to go above Alex, eg. beat Liam.

* subject to no unexpected appearances and then extremely good weeks in challengers next week. Most particularly it looks rather doubtful that Josh Milton ( finalist in Bath ) will be in Champaign.

I have Marcus in my top 10, indeed in 10th place, and not Alex, so over to you, Mr Willis...


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Tennis legend

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So it appears Alex will beat Marcus for the no 10 spot on tiebreak.

Nos 4 & 5 are currently very close. If Kyle wins his R1 match he will overtake Ed and will then end up no 4 unless Ed ultimately goes one stage further than Kyle.

Liam should finish no 3, only being overtaken if and only if either of ( or both ! ) Ed and Kyle win their title and Liam doesn't make his SF.

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I'm happy that (for once!) I'll not be at the bottom of something like this. smile





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Sim


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2014 male ranking predictions Results


Well it is all done and dusted. So how did you do??

Firstly I thought it could be good fun to have a bulls-eye award for anyone who got their world ranking prediction spot on. Using Steven's predicted rankings yesterday I thought there was a chance but it didn't quite happen.

 

So the winner of the closest to the bull award is:

 

Ratty predicting Alex Ward to 340 when he finished 339 so 1 out or 0.3%

 

Runners up go to Chavkev 2 out or  0.6% for Dan Cox,  Bob in Spain and Tommy Mac both 2 out 1% for Kyle, and Coup Droit 1 out but 16.7% for Andy.



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Sim


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2014 male ranking predictions


And the main competition results.

 

Doing the Double and our winner: Ratty

Runner up (definitely not near the bottom) : Salmon

Third place: Imoen

 

Edit: Embarrassingly I have spotted an error in my summary. Luckily doesn't affect top 3 but Bright Spark, Jake270392 and Tennisnow's totals were incorrect (they were taken from the person one to the left on the main table.). Now corrected. Means Paulsi doesn't have to share 5th place and Helen40 is not so lonely.

 Points are:

Ratty51
Salmon48
Imoen47
Indiana45
Paulisi44
Bob in Spain38
chavkev38
SMC180937
Jake27039236
Josh34
Jaggy187632
Sim32
Spud31
Coup Droit30
Steven29
Bright Spark27
Kaseldop27
Freerider26
Kundalini26
Tommymac25
Tennisnow22
Helen4021
 
 
 
  

I will update the full table this evening



-- Edited by Sim on Monday 17th of November 2014 01:27:18 PM



-- Edited by Sim on Monday 17th of November 2014 06:12:11 PM



-- Edited by Sim on Monday 17th of November 2014 07:16:52 PM

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Tennis legend

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I'll take that - tied 5th and only a three points off a medal.

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Tennis legend

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Take a bow, Ratty, you little rodent you :)

And congrats to Salmon and Imoen too.


And a big 'well done and thanks' to Sim - great job, Sim - really fun to follow through the year.


(personally, I have a bone to pick with Josh Goodall - a little unexpected comeback wouldn't have hurt you, would it ????)

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It's a shame that Ratty was correct about Evo, his 'outlier' hit home far too close for comfort.

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Tennis legend

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Congrats to the winners and thanks to Sim for running the contest - a nice format, if only players wouldn't get injured or otherwise go AWOL, eh!

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GB top 25s (ranks, whereabouts) & stats - http://www.britishtennis.net/stats.html

Sim


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Full table is now uploaded.

 http://www.britishtennis.net/predictions/2014%20Male%20Ranking%20predictions.htm



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Sim


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Looking at how the players performed compared to predictions;

The joint winners were Liam Broady and James Ward both 38% above the average prediction.

Liam beat the most optimistic prediction.

The most accurate predictions, perhaps somewhat surprisingly was for Brydan Klein

 PicksAverageHighLow Actual+/-%
         
Andy Murray223.015 6-3-103%
Dan Evans2213091280 289-159-122%
James Ward2216676250 1026438%
Dan Cox21251151341 314-63-25%
Ed Corrie13294235340 2306422%
David Rice20279200395 345-66-24%
Marcus Willis19278223365 340-62-22%
Kyle Edmund22220130320 1922813%
Byrdan Klein7294207350 29310%
Ollie Golding21262195320 418-156-59%
Dan Smethurst3287250321 28162%
Alex Ward13285210340 339-54-19%
Ashley Hewitt2299292306 565-266-89%
Josh Goddal1300300300 994-694-231%
Richard Gabb1310310310 610-300-97%
Liam Broady9305248375 18811738%
Josh Ward-Hibert1240240240 748-508-212%
Luke Bambridge1345345345 503-158-46%
 
  


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I vaguely remember that my winning strategy was to boringly predict that everyone would finish 2014 in pretty much the same position that they started it. Apart from Dan Evans where I suspected that his success in the 6 weeks leading up to the 2013 US Open was (regrettably) a flash in the pan.

Er, does this mean I can start writing about regression to the mean again, without being flamed? smile

 



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Admin: Moderator+Tennis Legend

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I echo the others by adding my thanks for running this Sim.

I really have no idea how I've managed to end up 3rd though - I'm sure I've been very close if not at the bottom for each of the updates throughout the year!!

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Can't believe that I managed to swim up to the second position. Thanks for organising this, Sim, and congratulations to all the winners.



 Sim wrote:


The most accurate predictions, perhaps somewhat surprisingly was for Brydan Klein

 


 
The sample size is too small for me to take a clear stand on, but I'd say that it makes some sense. Klein is possibly the British tennis player with the least number of fans out here, and in general, we tend to overestimate the prospects of our favourites. Distance brings perspective, and all that.

I can't help but chuckle at the fact that the only prediction that I spectacularly messed up was Coxy, whom I had at 151. wink Look carefully and there's a fanboy/fangirl in all of us. Apart from the grumpy Ratty, of course - and then he (or is it 'she'?) goes on to beat us all. smile



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Ratty wrote:

I vaguely remember that my winning strategy was to boringly predict that everyone would finish 2014 in pretty much the same position that they started it. Apart from Dan Evans where I suspected that his success in the 6 weeks leading up to the 2013 US Open was (regrettably) a flash in the pan.

Er, does this mean I can start writing about regression to the mean again, without being flamed? smile

 


While offering congratulations to the victor, I rather suspect the answer to the question is negative, given that of the ten chosen, only Mr Willis and Mr Ward wound up in roughly the same place ... and if you had predicted that Mr Broady would more than halve his ranking; Mr Ward and Mr Edmund cut theirs by about a third each; Mr Corrie would go up by 70; and Mr Klein would go up by 94, you would have done even better than you did!

On the other hand, if you want to lecture the rest of us on the merits of not being overly optimistic about the chances of the players (whoever they may be for each of us) whom we'd really love to see do exceptionally well against the odds -  we'll all have to listen with equanimity.

(Then again, it's one of the rather lovely aspects of the competition that people use it to wish their favourite players well. Rational, no. A winning strategy, no. But rather lovely nonetheless)



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