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Post Info TOPIC: Monte Carlo Pick 'Em. Scores and Analysis


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Monte Carlo Pick 'Em. Scores and Analysis


double shedtime

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Count Zero - Creator of the Statistical Tennis Extrapolation & Verification ENtity or, as we like to call him, that steven.


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All-time great

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Guillermo "Call me Andy" Garcia- Lopez has done the Lucky Loser thing and beaten Gicquel. So am.com aren't beaten yet.

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With three R2 results in, two of which we all picked correctly (Murray-Lopez and Fed to win) and one of which none of us picked correctly (HT Lee to win), it's all hung on the Safin match, with a big swing to AM.com at stake if he won.

He won the 1st set 6-0, had at least 1 MP in the 2nd before losing it 10-8 in the t/b, went a break up in the 3rd and finally lost it 6-4 in the final set. Woohoo! smile.gif

Nobody picked Vliegen, so we end the day with everyone +4 points on what they had at the end of R1.

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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!

GB top 25s (ranks, whereabouts) & stats - http://www.britishtennis.net/stats.html



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Update to the web coming up very soon, in the meantime:

AndyMurray.com lead BritishTennis.net by an average of 18.08-16.94 points per team member after 28 matches.

and the top10(ish)

POS. PLAYER    TEAM   TODAY    TOTAL    %
     1Rochelle    BT     10    2268.8%
     2Chrissi    AM      9    2165.6%
     2silk    AM     11    2165.6%
     4Xenon21    AM     10    2062.5%
     4Drew    BT     11    2062.5%
     4Kels    AM     11    2062.5%
     7Goldfish    BT      8    1959.4%
     7Richard Morris    AM      9    1959.4%
     7Wendy    AM     10    1959.4%
     7english-boy    AM      9    1959.4%
     7Vimto    AM      9    1959.4%
   -Roberta (*)    -     10    1959.4%
     7Claire Morris    AM     10    1959.4%
     7WallaceEMann    BT     10    1959.4%
     7Robert Hulse    AM     10    1959.4%
     7Allan    AM     11    1959.4%


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Website update here

Steven's going to be doing the updates for a few days as I'm going away.

Congrats to Rochelle who kept her lead throughout the day,

and Sheddie, out of curiousity, will it be a month each for ending behind both Rochelle and Count or a month for the two?wink

When I get back I hope to see BT back in the lead please.gif



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4th eh ....it wont last !!!

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Sorry couldn't enter this one - been away for the weekend

Go BT.net!

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Tennis legend

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When did the Undertaker stop being reliable? doh He took the 1st set off Soderling, lost the 2nd in the t/b then lost his serve 5 times in the final set dohdoh (he also broke Soderling 3 times in that set!) to lose the match. One semi-finalist down, 3 to go ...

That result was good for the AMs too, Djokovic's win was marginally good for us.

AndyMurray.com lead BritishTennis.net by an average of 20.33-19.06 points per team member after 30 matches.

The top 16:


POS. PLAYER TEAM TODAY TOTAL %

1 Rochelle BT 2 24 66.7%
1 Xenon21 AM 4 24 66.7%
1 Kels AM 4 24 66.7%
4 Chrissi AM 2 23 63.9%
4 Richard Morris AM 4 23 63.9%
4 Claire Morris AM 4 23 63.9%
4 Robert Hulse AM 4 23 63.9%
8 Drew BT 2 22 61.1%
8 Guy BT 4 22 61.1%
10 silk AM 0 21 58.3%
10 Goldfish BT 2 21 58.3%
10 Wendy AM 2 21 58.3%
10 english-boy AM 2 21 58.3%
10 Vimto AM 2 21 58.3%
- Roberta (*) - 2 21 58.3%
10 WallaceEMann BT 2 21 58.3%
10 Allan AM 2 21 58.3%


That's 6 AMs in the top 7 bleh

Looking at the 3 matches on court now, they have a lot more to gain than we do, simply because clever us (ahem!) allowed for Almagro and Acasuso being clay court specialists (something which seems to be more or less irrelevant this year) ...

Robredo-Clément

Donna (AM) went for Clément, everyone else went for Robredo, so we're talking just a 0.08 point swing one way or the other here.

Gonzalez-Andreev.

All AMs went for Gonzo, nobody went for Andreev and 3 BTs went for Acasuso (already out), so there's a 0.33 swing to AM.com if Gonzo wins, no change if Andreev wins.

Becker v Berdych.

14 AMs and 2 BTs went for Berdych, 1 AM and 1 BT for Becker. 8 AMs and 15 BTs went for Almagro (kod by Berdych), 1 AM and 0 BTs went for ToJo (kod by Becker), so there will be no swing if Becker wins (though it will be great for Rochelle and Shaun, the only people who went for him to win, and pretty good for all of us who went for Almagro) but there will be a big 0.95 points per player swing to AM.com if Berdych wins.

In other words, thanks to Acasuso and Almagro going out in R1, the maximum potential swing to AM from these three matches is 1.36, the maximum potential swing to BT is just 0.08. I don't think we're going to be taking back the lead for some time yet. cry




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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!

GB top 25s (ranks, whereabouts) & stats - http://www.britishtennis.net/stats.html



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Berdych has just won :sad: - BIG swing to them:

AndyMurray.com lead BritishTennis.net by an average of 21.5-19.28 points per team member after 31 matches.


Rochelle loses her long-held lead and AM now have all of the top 5, 10 of the top 12, 12 of the top 16:

POS.  PLAYER     TEAM    TODAY     TOTAL     %
     
     1 Xenon21        AM       6     26 68.4%
     1 Kels           AM       6     26 68.4%
     3 Chrissi        AM       4     25 65.8%
     3 Claire Morris  AM       6     25 65.8%
     3 Robert Hulse   AM       6     25 65.8%
     6 Rochelle       BT       2     24 63.2%
     7 Richard Morris AM       4     23 60.5%
     7 silk           AM       2     23 60.5%
     7 english-boy    AM       4     23 60.5%
     7 Vimto          AM       4     23 60.5%
   - Roberta (*)    -       4     23 60.5%
     7 WallaceEMann   BT       4     23 60.5%
     7 Allan          AM       4     23 60.5%
   13 Drew           BT       2     22 57.9%
   13 Guy            BT       4     22 57.9%
   13 Granny         AM       4     22 57.9%
   13 Speedy Hawk    AM       4     22 57.9%



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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!

GB top 25s (ranks, whereabouts) & stats - http://www.britishtennis.net/stats.html



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I don't know. I miss one pick- em competition and you guys end up picking all the wrong players...........

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  1. Ferrero winning (sorry, I didn't do the preview in time) was a 0.11 swing to BT.

    Nobody picked Andreev to beat Gonzo, but the main impact will be felt by mad people like me who had Gonzo as a semi-finalist. furious (that's two semi-finalists I've lost today, sorry team, but I blame the players! LOL
  2.  Previews of remaining matches:

    Ferrer-Benneteau

    17 AMs and 15 BTs went for Ferrer, 6 AMs and 2 BTs went for Benneteau, 1 AM and 1 BT went for Simon.

    So that's a 0.25 swing to BT if Ferrer wins or a 0.28 swing to AM if Benneteau does.

    Gasquet-Hrbaty

    21 AMs and 17 BTs went for Dammit, 1 AM (Robert Hulse, who could go top) went for Hrbaty. AMs Donna and Jambon went for Verdasco.

    0.14 swing to BT if Dammit wins, 0.08 swing to AM if Hrbaty does.

    Stepanek-Ljubicic

    21 AMs and 13 BTs went for Ljubicic, 2 AMs (Richard Morris and Sound) went for Count Duckula, 1 AM and 5 BTs went for Monfils.

    So AM get a swing towards them (0.31 if Ljubo wins, 0.17 if Duckula wins) whatever happens!
     
    Mirnyi-Roitman

    2 AMs (english-boy and Sound) and 0 BTs went for Mirnyi, 1 AM (AllyB) went for Roitman, the rest of us went for Baggy or Melzer.

    So AM get a small swing towards them (0.17 if the Beast wins, 0.08 if Roitman does) whatever happens!

    Kohlschreiber-Nalby

    All of the BTs and went for Big Dave, as did 22 of the AMs. murraymaniac (AM) went for Kohlschreiber. Sound (AM) went for Pavel.

    0.17 swing to BT if Big Dave wins, 0.08 swing to AM if Kohly does.

    Chela-Nadal

    All 42 of us went for Rafa.


-- Edited by steven at 14:50, 2007-04-18

-- Edited by steven at 14:50, 2007-04-18

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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!

GB top 25s (ranks, whereabouts) & stats - http://www.britishtennis.net/stats.html



Tennis legend

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AndyMurray.com lead BritishTennis.net by an average of 26.92-24.72 points per team member after 36 matches.

Now just the 3 matches on court plus Ljubo-Duckula (due on after Ferrer-Benneteau) to play in R2.

Although things keep changing, there's still a 'break' after the top 16, so here they are:

1 Xenon21 AM 12 32 66.7%
2 Chrissi AM 10 31 64.6%
2 Robert Hulse AM 12 31 64.6%
2 english-boy AM 12 31 64.6%
5 Kels AM 10 30 62.5%
5 Rochelle BT 8 30 62.5%
7 Claire Morris AM 10 29 60.4%
7 Richard Morris AM 10 29 60.4%
7 silk AM 8 29 60.4%
7 Vimto AM 10 29 60.4%
- Roberta (*) - 10 29 60.4%
7 WallaceEMann BT 10 29 60.4%
7 Allan AM 10 29 60.4%
13 Guy BT 10 28 58.3%
13 Granny AM 10 28 58.3%
15 Goldfish BT 8 27 56.3%
15 Jambondusoleil AM 10 27 56.3%

Maximum potential swing from the remaining matches - 0.56 to BT or 0.67 to AM.


-- Edited by steven at 15:00, 2007-04-18

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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!

GB top 25s (ranks, whereabouts) & stats - http://www.britishtennis.net/stats.html



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No idea what's up with the formatting, I'll give up and try again in another post ...



-- Edited by steven at 20:33, 2007-04-18

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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!

GB top 25s (ranks, whereabouts) & stats - http://www.britishtennis.net/stats.html



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wow im doing badly...

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kohlscreiber furious.gif

berdych furious.giffurious.gif

andreev furious.giffurious.giffurious.gif

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