Monte Carlo Pick 'Em. Scores and Analysis

mkkreuk · Admin:Moderator + ATP qualifying

RE: Monte Carlo Pick 'Em. Scores and Analysis

steven · Tennis legend

That's closed the gap to just over 1 point per player: smile

AndyMurray.com lead BritishTennis.net by an average of 39.75-38.61 points per team member after 46 matches.

If Kohlschreiber beats Murray-Lopez and Rafa wins, we'll be within 1 point of them (having made up well over a point today) but if the opposite results happen, the gap will widen to nearly 2 again.

POS.	PLAYER	TEAM	TODAY	TOTAL	%

1	silk	AM	16	51	63.8%
2	Chrissi	AM	12	49	61.3%
3	Richard Morris	AM	16	47	58.8%
3	Robert Hulse	AM	12	47	58.8%
5	Guy	BT	12	46	57.5%
6	Claire Morris	AM	12	45	56.3%
7	Speedy Hawk	AM	12	44	55.0%
7	Kels	AM	8	44	55.0%
9	WallaceEMann	BT	12	43	53.8%
9	Vimto	AM	8	43	53.8%
11	Josh	BT	12	42	52.5%
11	Seagull	BT	12	42	52.5%
11	Sheddie	BT	12	42	52.5%
14	Goldfish	BT	8	41	51.3%
14	english-boy	AM	4	41	51.3%

Note the 3-man cavalry charge arriving in 11=, all with 3 correct today (the average correct today over all entrants is just 2/6)

steven · Tennis legend

I've already posted today's DETAILED RESULTS at http://www.britishtennis.net/2007mc.htm, while summary results can be found below.

At the end of R3, AM still lead, but BT have won a round at last and have cut the gap to just under 1 point per player, about as good as they could have hoped for today. smile

AndyMurray.com lead BritishTennis.net by an average of 43.58-42.61 points per team member after 48 matches.

Top scorers today were silk (AM, up from 6th to 1st) and Richard Morris (AM, up from 16th to 3rd) with 5/8. The average was close to 3/8, with almost everyone who got 4/8 ending the day in the top half of the table and everyone who only got 2/8 suffering badly. I'm afraid Sound (AM) was the lowest scorer today, with just 1/8, and he plummets from 31st to 41st to join battle with Donna (AM) and the gorillas for the coveted bottom spot.

Biggest riser today in position terms was JohnnyLad (BT) up 18 to 19th, but the most ominous risers were BT's three Gasqueteers - Josh, Seagull and (whisper it!) Sheddie - all up 12 to 11th after getting 4 correct today. If Gasquet wins again, they and goldfish (BT) just below them will be challenging for the top 3!

Note that even now, only 25 points cover 1st to last - that's less than the points you get for picking the winner of the Final. So there's plenty to play for, especially for those who didn't pick Andy/GGL to win the whole thing. I'll post a preview of the QF swings in a minute.

POS.	PLAYER	TEAM	TODAY	TOTAL	%

1	silk	AM	20	55	62.5%
2	Chrissi	AM	16	53	60.2%
3	Richard Morris	AM	20	51	58.0%
3	Robert Hulse	AM	16	51	58.0%
5	Guy	BT	16	50	56.8%
6	Claire Morris	AM	16	49	55.7%
7	Speedy Hawk	AM	16	48	54.5%
7	Kels	AM	12	48	54.5%
9	WallaceEMann	BT	16	47	53.4%
9	Vimto	AM	12	47	53.4%
11	Josh	BT	16	46	52.3%
11	Seagull	BT	16	46	52.3%
11	Sheddie	BT	16	46	52.3%
14	Goldfish	BT	12	45	51.1%
14	english-boy	AM	8	45	51.1%
16	Fiona Lamb	AM	12	44	50.0%
16	Xenon21	AM	8	44	50.0%
16	Rochelle	BT	8	44	50.0%

-- Edited by steven at 20:30, 2007-04-19

-- Edited by steven at 20:32, 2007-04-19

steven · Tennis legend

-	*Roberta ()**	-	8	43	48.9%
19	Johnnylad	BT	16	43	48.9%
19	SarahWiser	AM	12	43	48.9%
19	Count Zero	BT	12	43	48.9%
19	Allan	AM	8	43	48.9%
23	cazza99	AM	12	42	47.7%
23	Drew	BT	12	42	47.7%
23	Aria81	BT	12	42	47.7%
23	ForeverDelayed	BT	12	42	47.7%
23	Spraggz	AM	12	42	47.7%
23	Granny	AM	8	42	47.7%
29	Shaun7879	AM	12	41	46.6%
30	Mkkreuk	BT	16	40	45.5%
30	Dusty Dick	BT	12	40	45.5%
30	AllyB	AM	12	40	45.5%
30	Vamos08	AM	12	40	45.5%
34	steven	BT	12	39	44.3%
34	John	BT	12	39	44.3%
34	Wendy	AM	8	39	44.3%
34	djmac13	BT	8	39	44.3%
34	murraymaniac	AM	8	39	44.3%
39	Jambondusoleil	AM	8	37	42.0%
40	Imoen	BT	8	34	38.6%
41	Sound (Lewis)	AM	4	33	37.5%
42	Donna	AM	8	30	34.1%
-	King Kong (#)	-	5	27	30.7%

steven · Tennis legend

Has anyone else noticed that the first three players in the QF draw all have names starting Fe- that each have 5 letters that are either e or r. Spooky, eh?

Federer-Ferrer - 1.56 swing to BT if Fed wins, 0 swing if Ferrer wins

Everyone except R Hulse (AM), F Lamb (AM) and djmac13 (BT) plus 4 AMs currently in the bottom 7 overall went for Fed.

1 BT and 5 AMs went for Djokovic and 1 AM (Sound) went for Gaudio.

Ferrero-Gasquet - 0.11 swing to BT if Ferrero wins, 1.00 swing to BT if Gasquet wins

This is BT's 'we win either way' quarter. 1 BT (Wallace) & 1 AM (silk) went for Ferrero and will probably end up 2nd and 1st respectively if he wins. 6 BTs (Josh, Seagull, Sheddie, Goldfish, Aria & ForeverDelayed) and 5 AMs (R Morris, S Wiser, spraggz, vamos & MurrayManiac) went for Dammit.

Other players people expected to see in the semis from this quarter were Gonzo (7 BT + 17 AM), Acasuso (2 + 0), Ljubicic (1 + 1) and Tigger (1 + 0)

Berdych-Soderling - 1.00 swing to AM if Berdych wins, 0.56 swing to AM if Soderling wins

This is AM's 'we win either way' quarter. 0 BTs & 3 AMs (Chrissi, Speedy & Kels) went for Berdych and 1 BT (Guy) & 3 AMs (R Morris, R Hulse & C Morris) went for Soderling and could dominate the top spots if the Swede wins.

Other players people expected to see in the semis from this quarter were Robredo (13 + 10), the Undertaker (3 + 7) and Baggy (1 + 1)

Kohlschreiber-Nadal - a big 2.44 swing to BT if Rafa wins, 0 swing if Kohli wins

16 BTs and 14 AMs went for Rafa, nobody went for Kohli. Everyone else (2 BTs & 10 AMs), of whom only AMs silk, chrissi, Kels, Xenon & S Wiser aren't already in the bottom 8, went for Andy/GGL.

BEST SCENARIO FOR AM

If Ferrer, Ferrero, Berdych & Kohli all win, AM will stay in the lead by 1.86 and the competition will be over, with silk the winner and the top 4 all AMs.

BEST SCENARIO FOR BT

If Fed, Dammit, Soderling & Rafa all win, BT will storm into a 3.47 point per player lead and will be looking very good.

In that scenario, while the individual competition will still be wide open, I can't see a way back for the AMs. They do have a potential 2.22 swing in the Final if Fed wins it (7 AMs and just 4 BTs went for Fed to win the tournament), but BT will have a more than 3 point swing from the semis if Fed gets to the Final in the first place, so Fed going on to win the Final, except to make the score look more respectable. However, if the swing tomorrow isn't quite as extreme as that, they might still have a chance, especially if Rafa loses/retires from his QF, unlikely as that seems.

aria81 · Club Coach

Berdych.

Bloody guy can't win when he's supposed to and insists on winning when he should get beat.

imoen · Admin: Moderator+Tennis Legend

I think I'm going with reverse psychology next time, I'll fill out the draw as I think it will be...and then choose the complete opposite in the actual thing. Stupid clay courters losing all over the place, and what's up with Max Miryni? I had him winning a round but thought that was dodgy.

Drew · Apr 19, 2007

From 4th to worse than the Robot...typical !!!

johnnylad · Tennis legend

player fo the day!

imoen · Admin: Moderator+Tennis Legend

In the match that was going AM's way whatever, it gave them the bigger increase with berdych winning. They now have a 1.97 point lead:

AndyMurray.com lead BritishTennis.net by an average of 44.58-42.61 points per team member after 49 matches.

In the individual comp, only the top8 were affected thus:

POS.	PLAYER	TEAM	TODAY	TOTAL	%

1	Chrissi	AM	8	61	63.5%
2	Kels	AM	8	56	58.3%
2	Speedy Hawk	AM	8	56	58.3%
4	silk	AM	0	55	57.3%
5	Richard Morris	AM	0	51	53.1%
5	Robert Hulse	AM	0	51	53.1%
7	Guy	BT	0	50	52.1%
8	Claire Morris	AM	0	49	51.0%

imoen · Admin: Moderator+Tennis Legend

Federer beats Ferrer 64 60 allowing BT.net to cut the lead by a massive 1.56 to only 0.41:

AndyMurray.com lead BritishTennis.net by an average of 50.58-50.17 points per team member after 50 matches.

That all important individual top 10:

POS.	PLAYER	TEAM	TODAY	TOTAL	%

1	Chrissi	AM	16	69	66.3%
2	Kels	AM	16	64	61.5%
2	Speedy Hawk	AM	16	64	61.5%
4	silk	AM	8	63	60.6%
5	Richard Morris	AM	8	59	56.7%
6	Guy	BT	8	58	55.8%
7	Claire Morris	AM	8	57	54.8%
8	Vimto	AM	8	55	52.9%
8	WallaceEMann	BT	8	55	52.9%
10	Josh	BT	8	54	51.9%
10	Sheddie	BT	8	54	51.9%
10	Seagull	BT	8	54	51.9%

Up next JCF takes on Gasquet.

imoen · Admin: Moderator+Tennis Legend

Time for an update before the last qf is played:

We're now only 0.1 behind the AM crew:

AndyMurray.com lead BritishTennis.net by an average of 50.92-50.61 points per team member after 51 matches.

And in the individual:

POS.	PLAYER	TEAM	TODAY	TOTAL	%

1	silk	AM	16	71	63.4%
2	Chrissi	AM	16	69	61.6%
3	Kels	AM	16	64	57.1%
3	Speedy Hawk	AM	16	64	57.1%
5	WallaceEMann	BT	16	63	56.3%
6	Richard Morris	AM	8	59	52.7%
7	Guy	BT	8	58	51.8%
8	Claire Morris	AM	8	57	50.9%
9	Vimto	AM	8	55	49.1%
10	Josh	BT	8	54	48.2%
10	Sheddie	BT	8	54	48.2%
10	Seagull	BT	8	54	48.2%

steven · Tennis legend

aria81 wrote:
Berdych. Bloody guy can't win when he's supposed to and insists on winning when he should get beat.

Couldnae hae pit it better masel'! furious

johnnylad · Tennis legend

how does Ferrero beating Gasguet affect things?

steven · Tennis legend

Ferrero beating Gasquet made the gap slightly larger, but never mind that, Rafa's just beaten Kohli, so not only have we ...

... taken the lead for the first time on match 52

... we also can't be beaten any more

So we've gone from losing throughout to certain to win in the instant it took Rafa to take his match point. biggrin