Andy's competitors Weeks 3 and 4: Aussie Open

nads · Junior player

RE: Andy's competitors Weeks 3 and 4: Aussie Open

RobC · All-time great

nads wrote:

Djokovick is TRASHING Massu: 6-1 6-1 4-0 at the mo... what an opener. Lets hope Andy can emulate his friend..

2 breadsticks and a bagel

..... wow.

nads · Junior player

You can't but admire the guy, and hope Andy emulates his friend. Harsh on Massu though...

RobC · All-time great

Safin moves up onto the bottom of the table.

RobC · All-time great

Tonight, apart from Andy himself, we've got:

Berdych playing Lee. If Berdych were to go out tonight, Andy would overtake if he reached the fourth round.

Haas playing Montanes. If he went out now, Andy would need a quarter- final place to overtake.

Nalbandian (Andy needs to reach the semis) and Gonzalez (Andy in the final) also play tonight.

Andy's prospective 3rd round opponent, Nieminen against the on- form Paul Goldstein. Jarkko would overtake if he got to the QF and Andy lost in the 1st.

Hewitt plays qualifier Russell and also needs a QF to overtake.

Tursunov and Soderling both need to reach the semi- final to go ahead of Andy.

-- Edited by RobC at 17:04, 2007-01-15

Salmon · Tennis legend

I thought that Hewitt can overtake Andy by reaching the quarters??

Murraysman91 · Social player

I got to support Haas tonight.

Go Tommy!

RobC · All-time great

Arka wrote:

I thought that Hewitt can overtake Andy by reaching the quarters??

my mistake - I've edited the post.

RobC · All-time great

I've just realised that I'm no- longer qualifying for futures, but I'm getting in the Main Draw - looks like I've been doing it since 1800 posts....hmm.

Wonder why I didn't notice that I wasn't having to turn up on the Saturday anymore

imoen · Admin: Moderator+Tennis Legend

Apologies that this is such a long post, I might divide it into two depending on just how long it gets.

What if...

If Andy wins the Australian Open: He will have 2505points and a hangover (I'm just guessing on the second one). He will definitely overtake Ljubicic. He could overtake Blake(out before: rd3), Robredo(out before: qf), Roddick(out before: qf), Gonzalez(out before:f), Ancic(out before: f), Nalbandian(out before: f), Haas(wins ), Berdych(wins) and Djokovic(wins).
The last three are impossible because Andy just won and Roddick/Ancic meet before the qf; finally Gonzalez/Nalby meet Andy before the f.
Worst case: 7(+9)
Best case: 5(+11)

If Andy reaches the final of the Australian Open: He will have 2205points. He could overtake Gonzalez(out before: qf), Ancic(out before: sf), Nalbandian(out before: sf), Haas(out before: sf), Berdych(out before: f) and Djokovic(out before: f). He could be overtaken by Ferrer(wins), Gasquet(wins), Nieminen(wins), Stepanek(wins), Hewitt(wins).
Only one person can win (funnily enough). Only Andy can get to the final in his half.
Worst case: 12(+4)
Best case: 8(+8)

If Andy reaches the semifinals of the Australian Open:He will have 1955 points. He could overtake Nalbandian(out before:rd4), Haas(out before:qf), Berdych(out before:sf) and Djokovic(out before:sf). He could be overtaken by Ferrer(reach: final), Gasquet(reach: final), Nieminen(reach: final), Stepanek(wins), Hewitt(reach: final), Baghdatis(wins), Tursunov(wins), Youzhny(wins), Hrbaty(wins), Soderling(wins), Safin(wins) and Ferrero(wins).
Again, only one person can win. And Andy would take out a few on his way to the semi. others would knock each other out so:
Worst case: 16(nc)
Best case: 10(+6)

If Andy reaches the quarter finals of the Australian Open: He will have 1755 points. He could overtake Haas(out before: rd3), Berdych(out before: rd4) and Djokovic(out before: qf).
He could be overtaken by Ferrer(reach: sf), Gasquet(reach: sf), Nieminen(reach:final), Stepanek(reach:final), Hewitt(reach:final), Baghdatis(reach:final), Tursunov(reach:final), Youzhny(reach:final), Hrbaty(wins), Soderling(reach:final), Safin(wins), Ferrero(wins), Melzer(wins), Malisse(wins), Almagro(wins), Verdasco(wins), Moya(wins), Rochus (O)(wins), Fish(wins), Wawrinka(wins), Gaudio(wins), Vliegen(wins), Clement(wins), Benneteau(wins) and Chela(wins).
Remember, it's not as bad as it looks because only one person can win and only one other can reach the final, immediately meaning that of the 23 above, only 2 can actually overtake.
Worst case: 18(-2)
Best case: 11(+5)

More coming up in another post. It may take me a while to post it though as I've got to go do a few things first.

-- Edited by imoen at 12:58, 2007-01-18

RobC · All-time great

wow. great work as ever!

Drew · Jan 15, 2007

Bethan after that i hope u r relaxing doing some simple quantum physics / bolean parabolic equations....

imoen · Admin: Moderator+Tennis Legend

Right, the rest of the what ifs...

If Andy reaches the fourth round of the Australian Open: He would have 1655 points. He could overtake Berdych(out before: rd2) and Djokovic(out before: rd4).
He could be overtaken by Ferrer(reach:qf), Gasquet(reach:qf), Nieminen(reach:sf), Stepanek(reach:sf), Hewitt(reach:sf), Baghdatis(reach:final), Tursunov(reach:final), Youzhny(reach:final), Hrbaty(reach: final), Soderling(reach:final), Safin(reach: final), Ferrero(reach: final), Melzer(wins), Malisse(wins), Almagro(wins), Verdasco(wins), Moya(wins), Rochus (O)(wins), Fish(wins), Wawrinka(wins), Gaudio(wins), Vliegen(wins), Clement(wins), Benneteau(wins) and Chela(wins) Bjorkman(wins), Gicquel(wins), Lee(wins), Grosjean(wins), Ginepri(wins) and Monfils(wins).
It looks bad but once again the draw and the fact that there is only one win winner plays to our advantage.
Worst case: 20 (-4)
Best case: 12 (+4)

If Andy reaches the third round of the Australian Open: He would have 1575 points. He could overtake Djokovic(out before: rd3).
He could be overtaken by Ferrer(reach:rd4), Gasquet(reach:rd4), Nieminen(reach:sf), Stepanek(reach:sf), Hewitt(reach:sf), Baghdatis(reach:sf), Tursunov(reach:sf), Youzhny(reach:final), Hrbaty(reach: final), Soderling(reach:final), Safin(reach: final), Ferrero(reach: final), Melzer(reaches: final), Malisse(reaches:final), Almagro(reaches: final), Verdasco(reaches: final), Moya(wins), Rochus (O)(wins), Fish(wins), Wawrinka(wins), Gaudio(wins), Vliegen(wins), Clement(wins), Benneteau(wins) and Chela(wins) Bjorkman(wins), Gicquel(wins), Lee(wins), Grosjean(wins), Ginepri(wins) and Monfils(wins), Mirnyi(wins), Mayer(wins), Martin(wins), Mathieu(wins), Kohlschreiber(wins).
Worst case: 20 (-4)
Best case: 14(+2)

If Andy reaches the second round of the Australian Open: He would have 1535 points. He could overtake no one.
He could be overtaken by Ferrer(reach:rd3), Gasquet(reach:rd4), Nieminen(reach:sf), Stepanek(reach:sf), Hewitt(reach:sf), Baghdatis(reach:sf), Tursunov(reach:sf), Youzhny(reach:final), Hrbaty(reach: final), Soderling(reach:final), Safin(reach: final), Ferrero(reach: final), Melzer(reaches: final), Malisse(reaches:final), Almagro(reaches: final), Verdasco(reaches: final), Moya(reaches: final), Rochus (O)(reaches: final), Fish(reaches: final), Wawrinka(reaches: final), Gaudio(reaches: final), Vliegen(wins), Clement(wins), Benneteau(wins) and Chela(wins) Bjorkman(wins), Gicquel(wins), Lee(wins), Grosjean(wins), Ginepri(wins) and Monfils(wins), Mirnyi(wins), Mayer(wins), Martin(wins), Mathieu(wins), Kphlschreiber(wins), Mahut, Spadea(wins), Garcia-Lopez(wins), Lapentti(wins), Horna(wins).
Worst case: 20 (-4)
Best case: 14 (+2)

If Andy goes out in the first round of the Australian Open: He will remain on 1505 points. He could overtake nobody.
He could be overtaken by Ferrer(reach:rd3), Gasquet(reach:rd4), Nieminen(reach:qf), Stepanek(reach:sf), Hewitt(reach:qf), Baghdatis(reach:sf), Tursunov(reach:sf), Youzhny(reach:sf), Hrbaty(reach: final), Soderling(reach: sf), Safin(reach: final), Ferrero(reach: final), Melzer(reaches: final), Malisse(reaches:final), Almagro(reaches: final), Verdasco(reaches: final), Moya(reaches: final), Rochus (O)(reaches: final), Fish(reaches: final), Wawrinka(reaches: final), Gaudio(reaches: final), Vliegen(reach: final), Clement(reach: final), Benneteau(wins) and Chela(wins) Bjorkman(wins), Gicquel(wins), Lee(wins), Grosjean(wins), Ginepri(wins) and Monfils(wins), Mirnyi(wins), Mayer(wins), Martin(wins), Mathieu(wins), Kphlschreiber(wins), Mahut, Spadea(wins), Garcia-Lopez(wins), Lapentti(wins), Horna(wins), Serra(wins), Goldstein(wins), Tipsarevic(wins), Del Potro(wins) and Rochus(wins).
Worst case: 22 (-6)
Best case: 14(+2)

There. All done!

-- Edited by imoen at 13:02, 2007-01-18

imoen · Admin: Moderator+Tennis Legend

Drew wrote:

Bethan after that i hope u r relaxing doing some simple quantum physics / bolean parabolic equations....

No, no. I really needed to get away from the mathematics so I wrote a paper detailing how to solve world hunger by 2010, i'm just off now to send it to the UN

I apologise if there are any mistakes in those calculations, let me know and i'll correct them!

Andy better go deep into the tournament after all that work!

RobC · All-time great

If increased wheat production solves world hunger, Andy goes up to WR14, and overtakes increased rice production and genetically modified cassava.

Improved birth control in sub- Saharan Africa can overtake, as can a Bird Flu epidemic in India and a Pacific Tsunami, but luckily they'd meet somewhere in Indonesia.

So worst case is Andy at WR 16, and a 15% reduction in poverty in the Middle East