British Tennis Forum - Celebrating 20 Years!

Been a lurker on here for a while, so firstly wanted to say thanks to everyone who posts on here regularly (and especially those who post the results from all over the world) - it's an amazing resource to follow all the British players throughout the year and I read the board pretty much every day, so I'll have to try and post more now I've broken my silence!

Anyway, I had a little bit of time this morning so thought I'd dig a bit deeper into how wild cards have actually done in the last 8 Slams to help try and answer the question.

2025 French:

Mens (3 wins, 5 losses; all three R1 winners lost in R2)

Womens (4 wins, 4 losses; 2 R2 defeats, 1 R3 defeat, 1 SF defeat)

2025 Aus:

Mens: (2 wins, 6 defeats; both R1 winners lost in R3)

Womens: (4 wins, 4 losses; 3 R2 defeats, 1 R3 defeat)

2024 US:

Mens: (2 wins, 6 defeats; both R1 winners lost in R2)

Womens: (2 wins, 6 defeats; both R1 winners lost in R2)

2024 Wimbledon: 

Mens: (1 win, 7 defeats; R1 winner lost in R2)

Womens: (4 wins, 4 defeats; 2 R2 defeats, 1 R3 defeat, 1 R4 defeat)

2024 French: 

Mens: (2 wins, 6 defeats; both R1 winners lost in R2)

Womens: (1 win, 7 defeats; R1 winner lost in R3)

2024 Aus: 

Mens: (2 wins, 6 defeats; 1 R3 defeat, 1 R4 defeat)

Womens: (2 wins, 6 defeats; both R1 winners lost in R2)

2023 US:

Mens: (5 wins, 3 defeats; 2 R2 defeats, 2 R3 defeats, 1 R4 defeat)

Womens: (1 win, 7 defeats; R1 winner lost in R4)

2023 Wimbledon: 

Mens: (3 wins, 5 defeats; 1 R2 defeat, 2 R3 defeats)

Womens: (3 wins, 5 defeats; 1 R2 defeat, 1 R3 defeat, 1 SF defeat)

Overall, men's wild card first round win rate is 31% and on the women's side it is 33% (although breaking it down to the last four slams the women's win rate is significantly higher than the men's - men's is 25% and women's 44%)

Obviously that's only a small sample size and I think maybe distorted a little by a few big name former champions making comebacks on the women's side (Osaka and Svitolina as prime examples) - hence them being more likely to at least win a round or two. 

Thought it was worth sharing!  

Coup Droit wrote:

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Firstly, a big welcome, PeteM

And you seem exactly like our sort of guy 

Love the research, I'm going to go off and look at it properly, but just thought I'd say hi first 

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Thanks CD, really appreciate the warm welcome 

telstar wrote:

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Juniors are much better served by playing qualfying. Good practice on grass and a real sense of achievement should they qualify.

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 Juniors are even better served by playing juniors. I do hope Mimi Xu will be playing juniors - then I think we would have 3 players with a real shot at the title.

As far as public profile goes, and therefore followers and therefore sponsors, Wimbledon juniors ranks way above any other Slam. I suspect that many more general sports fans would remember Robson as a junior Slam winner than remember Watson; possibly even more than Stojsavlievic. Winning the Wimbledon girls title would be much more significant over the longterm than a good performance in either women's qualifying or main draw. Go ask the Queens tournament director.

Welcome PeterM. There is a discrepancy between Wimbledon and the three other Slams, all of which swap mutual wildcards between themselves, whereas Wimbledon does not.

If your reading this and haven't had a go at the predictions competition yet then do check it out in the competition section and join in.

PaulM wrote:

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Just to confirm, PeteM is not my twin brother 

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