Time to start scratching your heads and come up with your predictions for 2024. We had just 29 entries last year, so I hope more will take part this time around. he closing date for entries is midnight on Friday Dec 27th as I will be out of the country for the following week. So you have 2 weeks to get your entries in.
The finishing date for the competition will be around the first Monday in December to tie in with the womens competition - as this is likely to be the last ranking update of the season after the WTA125 indoor events. I won't be putting any entries onto the spreadsheet before Christmas, so until then you can change your entry as much as you like - but please, do it by editing your post rather than posting afresh, to save me some work !
Just so everyone is clear, and for anyone who didn't take part last year, here are the competition rules
Select 10 players and give your prediction of their end-of season GB ranking and world ranking. As in the 2023 competition one substitute player is allowed, who must be named as such at the same time as the main selection of 10. Their predicted WR must also be given. The eleventh player may be substituted for any one of your main selections, but only in the two weeks immediately following the end of Wimbledon (i.e. 14th to 27th July only, to be confirmed precisely nearer the time). This will give a little flexibility, particularly in the case of long-term injuries, and will make it more interesting. The substitute will take your prediction of the GB ranking of the player they replace, so for example if you replaced Kyle Edmund (GB #10) with Arthur Fery (GB #19), Arthur would become your #10 prediction so think carefully ! Continuing from last year, there will be two dummy entries, AsYouWere (based on the starting rankings) and Mr Average (based on everyone's WR predictions). Points will be awarded with a maximum of 10 points per player split between GB ranking and world ranking.
GB rankings. 5 points for a correct prediction, 4 for one out, 3 for 2 out, 2 for 3 out, 1 for 4 out or more than 4 out and player finishes in GB top 10. Note you can get points if a player finishes as low as GB14 e.g. You predict 10 they finish 14 difference is 4 so 1 point. You also get a point if your player finishes in the top ten if you havent gained any points already i.e. you predict GB7 and they finish GB1 you still get one point.
World ranking. 5 points if your prediction is within 7.5%, 4 if +/- 15%, 3 if +/- 20%, 2 if +/- 25% and 1 if within +/- 30% The reason why world ranking points is on % is that there is a big spread of rankings for GB top 10, so this method tries to even it out.
1. Jack D - 8
2. Cam N - 32
3. Jake F - 70
4. Dan E - 98
5. JoMo - 125
6. Paul J - 135
7. Kyle E - 175
8. Billy H - 180
9. Jack PJ - 185
10. Jay C - 190
Actually - how do other folks do these? I really do them by instinct , which shows why Im bottom of the table , generally. I tend to write down the top 20 or so players, anyone else that catches my eye, write a ranking prediction for each against their current ranking and see who lands as the top 10. My sub this year was intended to be a disruptive player ie Ryan who could do great but would surprise me if he did!
And that takes me 5 maybe 10 mins max!
I suspect others have spreadsheet and algorithm based models using some sort of AI prediction tool?!
1. Jack Draper 17
2. Cam Norrie 34
3. Dan Evans 67
4. Jacob Fearnley 125
5. Johannus Monday 144
6. Billy Harris 154
7. Paul Jubb 160
8. Jan Choinski 174
9. Ryan Peniston 199
10. Jack Pinnington Jones 220
Actually - how do other folks do these? I really do them by instinct , which shows why Im bottom of the table , generally. I tend to write down the top 20 or so players, anyone else that catches my eye, write a ranking prediction for each against their current ranking and see who lands as the top 10. My sub this year was intended to be a disruptive player ie Ryan who could do great but would surprise me if he did!
And that takes me 5 maybe 10 mins max!
I suspect others have spreadsheet and algorithm based models using some sort of AI prediction tool?!
I found Lambdas chart really useful this year. However I put Sonay in as number 3 as I really like her move into the top 100. So heart over head again! I really dont know with the mens as I dont follow as closely as the womens game TBH. Maybe will give that one a miss thus year.
-- Edited by Var on Saturday 14th of December 2024 11:19:07 AM
I don't follow the men's as closely as I used to - but will still have a go. Var, wait a few days, see what others are doing and take a punt - it'll only take a few minutes and I really need the number of entries to go up this year. Ideally I would like to get around 40 or even more - JonH gets that many voting every month.
Expect more spamming of threads from me to keep this in people's view !!
I don't follow the men's as closely as I used to - but will still have a go. Var, wait a few days, see what others are doing and take a punt - it'll only take a few minutes and I really need the number of entries to go up this year. Ideally I would like to get around 40 or even more - JonH gets that many voting every month.
Expect more spamming of threads from me to keep this in people's view !!
Spamming is where it is at! Seriously, people dont visit predictions thread like they do the mens and womens and entry threads, I believe - and its worth promoting. Timing of course around xmas is not ideal, but youre right, we get in the 40s on average for the Pom votes and this should get just as many, ideally
Actually - how do other folks do these? I really do them by instinct , which shows why Im bottom of the table , generally. I tend to write down the top 20 or so players, anyone else that catches my eye, write a ranking prediction for each against their current ranking and see who lands as the top 10. My sub this year was intended to be a disruptive player ie Ryan who could do great but would surprise me if he did!
And that takes me 5 maybe 10 mins max!
I suspect others have spreadsheet and algorithm based models using some sort of AI prediction tool?!
I found Lambdas chart really useful this year. However I put Sonay in as number 3 as I really like her move into the top 100. So heart over head again! I really dont know with the mens as I dont follow as closely as the womens game TBH. Maybe will give that one a miss thus year.
-- Edited by Var on Saturday 14th of December 2024 11:19:07 AM
Yeah - just have a random punt for the men's - no one really has any idea, it doesn't matter
Actually - how do other folks do these? I really do them by instinct , which shows why Im bottom of the table , generally. I tend to write down the top 20 or so players, anyone else that catches my eye, write a ranking prediction for each against their current ranking and see who lands as the top 10. My sub this year was intended to be a disruptive player ie Ryan who could do great but would surprise me if he did!
And that takes me 5 maybe 10 mins max!
I suspect others have spreadsheet and algorithm based models using some sort of AI prediction tool?!
It can't be scientific if we're looking into the future, but thinking of rankings as going up and down a mountain there are questions like who's on the way up, or down or peaked yet. The latter for Jack and Jake, Ryan is not a disruption as he and Kyle have much higher CHs than their current ranking ( 125 and 14) resp. So hopefully they're on the way back up, likewise Paul and Jay, etc.