indiana wrote:

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JonH comes home wrote:

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Ok start?

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 Re Steven's expected win %s, our men were 1.32/3 and won 0 and our women were 2.21/4 and won 3.

So overall 3 wins against an expected 3.53. Probably actually closer to bang on if that 3.53 doesn't take out the bookies' margin?

And feels better since I thought some of these expected win figures were rather optimistic - effect of home punts on bookies' odds?

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It does take out the margin - I start with the reciprocal of the decimal odds, but then I divide that by the sum of those reciprocals for both players in the match so that the probabilities for both players sum to 100%, i.e. 1. That would be more obvious if there was an all-GB match in the list.

You could argue (correctly) that dividing the probabilities for both players by the same amount isn't an entirely accurate method if the probabilities are very one-sided, but I think it's good enough for these purposes.

So, yes, the men were about 1.3 down and the women about 0.8 up on expectations, and those expectations might have been unrealistically optimistic if some British punters were a bit overenthusiastic. Obviously, the the odds are set in a global market (in the sense that if much better odds were offered on some players in the UK than in the USA, sophisticated punters could engage in arbitrage), but if we assume that British punters are more likely to bet on Wimbledon and Americans more likely to bet on the US Open wherever they are in the world, then some pro-GB optimism might well be reflected in the odds, even in non-UK betting markets.

Having said that, since when has the average Brit been optimistic about Brits at Wimbledon? 

4 wins - Harriet rd 1 singles

6 wins - Katie Bm rd 1 singles

2 more wins guaranteed in singles then!

With a rain delay already and a poor forecast for the next couple of hours they may not be anything to report for a while yet !

Nice mixed doubles entry and looks not too bad a draw. 40 here we come!