2024 Women's Predictions Competition

the addict · Tennis legend

2024 Women's Predictions Competition

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Going early this season, TA, on the basis I cant do much worse than last year, so going with gut is better than the highly scientific process I used last season!!

1. Katie B - 68
2. Heather W - 85
3. Jodie B - 112
4. Emma R - 125
5. Harriet D - 150
6. Marni B. - 200
7. Lily M. - 245
8. Katie S - 275
9. Fran J. - 300
10. Hannah K - 350

Sub Mimi X - 375

Var · Pro player

the addict wrote:

Time to start scratching your heads and come up with your predictions for 2024. We had 37 entries last year, which is up from the previous year. The closing date for entries is midnight on Wednesday Dec 27th as I will be out of the country for the following week. So you have 2 weeks to get your entries in.
The finishing date for the competition will be the first Monday in December as this is likely to be the last ranking update of the season after the WTA125 indoor events. I won't be putting any entries onto the spreadsheet before Christmas, so until then you can change your entry as much as you like - but please, do it by editing your post rather than posting afresh, to save me some work !
Just so everyone is clear, and for anyone who didn't take part last year, here are the competition rules

Select 10 players and give your prediction of their end-of season GB ranking and world ranking.
As in the 2023 competition one substitute player is allowed, who must be named as such at the same time as the main selection of 10. Their predicted WR must also be given. The eleventh player may be substituted for any one of your main selections, but only in the two weeks immediately following the end of Wimbledon (i.e. 15th to 27th July only, to be confirmed precisely nearer the time). This will give a little flexibility, particularly in the case of long-term injuries, and will make it more interesting. The substitute will take your prediction of the GB ranking of the player they replace, so for example if you replaced Katie Swan (GB #7) with Isabelle Lacy (GB #20), Isabelle would become your #7 prediction so think carefully ! Continuing from last year, there will be two dummy entries, AsYouWere (based on the starting rankings) and Mr Average (based on everyones WR predictions).
Points will be awarded with a maximum of 10 points per player split between GB ranking and world ranking.

GB rankings. 5 points for a correct prediction, 4 for one out, 3 for 2 out, 2 for 3 out, 1 for 4 out or more than 4 out and player finishes in GB top 10. Note you can get points if a player finishes as low as GB14 e.g. You predict 10 they finish 14 difference is 4 so 1 point. You also get a point if your player finishes in the top ten if you havent gained any points already i.e. you predict GB7 and they finish GB1 you still get one point.

World ranking. 5 points if your prediction is within 7.5%, 4 if +/- 12.5%, 3 if +/- 20%, 2 if +/- 25% and 1 if within +/- 30% The reason why world ranking points is on % is that there is a big spread of rankings for GB top 10, so this method tries to even it out.

So I am going to have a crack at this for 2024. Just to clarify is it the GB ranking and the WR that are equally important? Can you sub if a player gets injured and is out for the rest of the season?

the addict · Tennis legend

Hi Var. Yes, the GB ranking and WR are equally important with a maximum of 5 points for each. So there is a maximum potential score of 100 points, but in practice anyone who can achieve 50 points will probably win it (see the 2023 and 2022 threads). Only one sub is allowed and must be declared with your entry, and can only be used within the set period after Wimbledon.

the addict · Tennis legend

To help you stick your pin in and make your choices here are the current ranked women players, with last year's rankings as well as the current rankings.

Womens Rankings 2023.JPG

Strongbow · All-time great

Many thanks for 2023 biggrin Will be in the new one - when I've got my head together. disbelief

Andy Parker · Club Coach

Perhaps I'm starting to take this too seriously, but quick question regarding retirement by a player - what would happen if one of our leading players has lots of rankings points by Wimbledon 2024 but then announces their retirement before the end of the season. Would they immediately be scrubbed from the list or would the points gained by that time in the year and not coming off at the end of the season be used to still give them a ranking ?

The reason I ask is because I can imagine Heather going until Wimbledon or the US Open and then retiring after that and I would think she would have enough points by Wimbledon to be in the top 10 by the end of the season, if she is still counted as a player if she retires mid season and her points that do not come off are still counted.

I have no hidden insight on this - it is just a hunch that she may retire next year.

-- Edited by Andy Parker on Thursday 14th of December 2023 01:43:39 AM

the addict · Tennis legend

Interesting one Andy. If they officially retire then thier ranking ceases immediately, but if they just stop playing then their points will gradually come off and their ranking will drop. However we will all be in the same boat so I'll stick with the official rankings as posted on the WTA website. This happened with Jo Konta in 2021 when she retired just before the end of our competition.

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

the addict wrote:
Interesting one Andy. If they officially retire then thier ranking ceases immediately, but if they just stop playing then their points will gradually come off and their ranking will drop. However we will all be in the same boat so I'll stick with the official rankings as posted on the WTA website. This happened with Jo Konta in 2021 when she retired just before the end of our competition.

Similar could happen with Andy in the mens id suggest.

the addict · Tennis legend

Yes, it is a gamble - but then it's a predictions competition - who can best guess where we will be in 12 minths time.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Yes, it seems to me it has to be the official end of year rankings, no matter how they got there

So the 'retiring but just drifitng down the order' player would count but the 'retiring and taking their name off the list' player wouldn't because they wouldn't be on the list

The same would apply for a foreign player deciding to play for GB

If they make the move in November, and are now the new GB #6, say, then they're the #6, end of

And the same for someone who gets suspended, for doping violations - i.e. it's got to be the actual WTA rankings (not PRs, or with special caveats, etc etc)

Andy Parker · Club Coach

the addict wrote:
Interesting one Andy. If they officially retire then thier ranking ceases immediately, but if they just stop playing then their points will gradually come off and their ranking will drop. However we will all be in the same boat so I'll stick with the official rankings as posted on the WTA website. This happened with Jo Konta in 2021 when she retired just before the end of our competition.

Thanks for that info - I would imagine Heather when she goes, will make an announcement that this will be her last Wimbledon, rather than just run her points down. Hopefully the form she showed in Dubai will continue into next season and she will still have a few years left on the tour..... but for the purposes of this competition, it makes predicting a little more tricky. I wonder how Fran will fare next year - she has had some great results when she has been playing, but has had so many injury setbacks. Really hoping she can have an injury free season. next year.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Yes, but you can still make the official announcement and retire 100% and still let the points run down
It's just an admin thing - and some people are far better or care far more about admin
Just my guess, too, but I don't think hev is ready to retire yet....

the addict · Tennis legend

Coup Droit wrote:
Yes, but you can still make the official announcement and retire 100% and still let the points run down
It's just an admin thing - and some people are far better or care far more about admin
Just my guess, too, but I don't think hev is ready to retire yet....

Not quite right. You can say you are retiring and the points run down, but if you officially retire via the WTA/ITF, like Jo did, then you are straight out of the rankings.

Anyway, I think Hev will continue for quite a while yet - she loves playing too much.

Lambda · Challenger level

the addict wrote:

Coup Droit wrote:
Yes, but you can still make the official announcement and retire 100% and still let the points run down
It's just an admin thing - and some people are far better or care far more about admin
Just my guess, too, but I don't think hev is ready to retire yet....
Not quite right. You can say you are retiring and the points run down, but if you officially retire via the WTA/ITF, like Jo did, then you are straight out of the rankings.
Anyway, I think Hev will continue for quite a while yet - she loves playing too much.

A player that officially retires is removed from the rankings at the end of the season or they can request to be removed from the rankings at an earlier date of their choosing.

If a player doesn't officially retire (by submitting the paperwork) and instead retires by letting their points run down, they'll still need to abide by the anti-doping requirements.

When Heather was asked last month what thoughts she had on what she'd do after her playing career, she didn't sound like someone who had any plans on retiring any time soon.