[1] Splitting up with Petchey and having no coach - Murray's work ethic isn't the same, he doesn't have such a good game plan for his matches.
[2] Lots on his mind at the moment with trying to find a new coach
[3] The clay court season. Although Andy will say otherwise, clay seems to be his weakest surface and as with Henman, it will take Andy a while to find the right game plan to succeed on clay.
[4] Injury: The ankle injury and virus cost him most of April and maybe his fitness is not yet at the level it was at in March and maybe he's still suffering from losing those weeks of practise. The back problem seems to have returned - maybe this was as a result of losing fitness in April.
All of those, plus: clay is very demanding physically, and to me he is still a gangly youth. When he is a bit older and has filled out and put on a bit more muscle, he may do better on clay perhaps.
All of those plus the obvious problem that his serve is letting him down. He is hardly getting a cheap point and that puts prssure on almost every aspect of his game.
The fundamental problem is the serve and in it's current state the rest of his game has to be almost perfect for him to beat any decent opponent. Think back to the Hewitt match in San Jose where both players served poorly but that apart Andy played very well for much of the match. Once he drops below that level he's lost matches against opponents of a similar standard.
Indeed if you look at his victories in 2006 a significant number have been against players ranked 100 or lower. A top 50 player has no trouble dealing with the reduced pace first serve of 2006.
The Volandri match is a good example. A repeat of last year's serving display's at Queens, Wimbledon or the US Open, aggressive serving at around 45-50% first serves in play, would have generated a number of unreturned serves, and some opportunities for easy put-aways. He would not have lost serve 5 times out of 10 and the match would have been within reach.
In this particular contest he did actually attempt to serve at pace, especially in the first set, but nearly all of the fast serves missed, and the first serve percentage only reached 40% in the first set and 50% overall because he mixed up a number of kick serves and reduced pace efforts which he succeeded in getting in play.
Against Wawrinka Andy broke twice in each set yet still lost. Against Lisnard and Ferrer he served for the match. Each time his serve failed him in spectacular fashion. Even his first serve percentage figures in these matches are misleading because in the third set an injured Murray hit very gentle first serves at a high percentage thus boosting his overall figures.
If he continues to serve at this standard he will find it very difficult to win any matches on any surface. He could easily fail to win a single match on the grass even with reasonable draws at Queens and Wimbledon.
Should he ever solve the serving problem, coming up with a competitive second serve to back up an aggressive first serve that works 60% of the time, I think he could do well on the clay. Next year will probably be a learning year on the surface, hopefully he will begin to construct the points better and stop hitting these nothing midcourt forehands that keep getting punished, then after that I can see him reaching the later stages of events on clay.
The coaching situation does appear to have left Andy confused about how aggressive to be. It isn't his natural game but I'm sure if he watched Nadal v Federer in Monte Carlo or indeed paid attention while attending the Nadal v Henman match last night he would know that you have to go for your shots at the highest level of the game.
On clay, in the two matches I've seen, he has been aggressive during phases of the match and while the balance probably wasn't quite right, it wasn't far off. It has to be said that he has looked totally lost at the net on clay. His positioning is awful, and volleys have been poor, so not surprisingly he hasn't attacked the net too often.
I think that he is now being found out by a lot of players. He was fresh and new on the scene late last year and early this year. I think other players have got to know his game pretty quickly now and he desperately needs to get advice on how to vary it.
He is also now playing at a higher level - no "challenger level" opponents now. It is harded week in week out.
I think Top 20 forecasts are well wide of the mark just now. He will do well to consolidate a top 50 position this year, especially when he has to start defending points from last year.
Still, I remember Gasquet, Nadal and Berdych all facing a "consolidation"year after their initial breakthrough, so I think Andy's troubles so far this year are nothing out of the ordinary for breakthrough players. Next year will tell us more.
"One of the problems of the last few weeks is that I've gone on court without a game plan," admitted Murray.
"I haven't really had my own time alone to think about what I was going to do.
"But I did that last night [ahead of the Monfils match]. I listened to my ipod before the match, like I was doing last summer, and really got myself in the zone.
"I was much more fired up and concentrated than I had been in the last few weeks. I think I got my tactics right."
Dashers wrote: I think that he is now being found out by a lot of players. He was fresh and new on the scene late last year and early this year. I think other players have got to know his game pretty quickly now and he desperately needs to get advice on how to vary it.
He is also now playing at a higher level - no "challenger level" opponents now. It is harded week in week out.
I think Top 20 forecasts are well wide of the mark just now. He will do well to consolidate a top 50 position this year, especially when he has to start defending points from last year.
Still, I remember Gasquet, Nadal and Berdych all facing a "consolidation"year after their initial breakthrough, so I think Andy's troubles so far this year are nothing out of the ordinary for breakthrough players. Next year will tell us more.
agreed. i think it's quite natural to suffer a slump in form after San Jose, which was a monumental breakthrough by any standards. the question is, what kind of a slump is it?