After last week I thought the two Katies had the best chance of qualifying but perhaps it took too much out of them. Big chance for Jodie to make the MD now, would love to see Lily there too after her disappointing loss to Heather last week, especially as CoCo was rather rude at Wimbledon last year IIRC.

JonH comes home wrote:

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Which round would Jodie need to reach in Aus to get into the top 100, roughly? Will qualifying be enough or does she need a couple of main draw rounds as well? (Edited - I realise now she is still some way off points wise and it would take a last 16 to get there, nonetheless still moving in the right direction)

Lily getting into the space where Wimbledon wild card for the main draw would become a real possibility (I cant remember if she had one last year as not paying too much attention but this year must look promising?)

-- Edited by JonH comes home on Wednesday 11th of January 2023 10:40:42 AM

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 Its good though that Jodie is picking up points as She could lose a few once the grass season starts. 

kundalini wrote:

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JonH comes home wrote:

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Which round would Jodie need to reach in Aus to get into the top 100, roughly? Will qualifying be enough or does she need a couple of main draw rounds as well?

Lily getting into the space where Wimbledon wild card for the main draw would become a real possibility (I cant remember if she had one last year as not paying too much attention but this year must look promising?)

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 Jodie would need to reach 3rd round (170 points - 130 + 40 for qualifying) of main draw. 2nd round (110 points - 70 + 40) would probably leave her about 30 to 40 points short, depending on other results, though a small possibility it might be enough. Qualifying helps a bit points wise but still leaves her a long way off. Jodie had 504 points going into the Aus Open qualifying, with her lowest counter being 8 (I think). Top 100 currently 615, had been slightly higher at about 630; I assume it will be 630+ once Aus Open finished. If it ends up being 600 then 2nd round would be sufficient.

On the Wimbledon wildcard situation, we have so many players that could be inside the top 100 or could be in need of a wildcard (Emma, Harriet, Katie B, Jodie, Katie S, Heather etc). Then you've got the likes of Venus who'd be almost impossible to turn down if she requests one. Recently, winners of warm-up grass tournaments have been given a main draw WC if needed. Lily is likely to be in the category of players that will get one if there are enough left over but won't overtake LTA favourites. Sonay is probably in the same position unless one of Katie S, Katie B or Jodie have a terrible run of results.

Lily did get a WC in 2022. She lost a close 3 set match to Caroline Garcia.

-- Edited by kundalini on Wednesday 11th of January 2023 11:11:56 AM

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 Thanks for the detail Kundalini, appreciated. A real log jam of players and we really need a few of them into the top 100 as opposed to just outside. Lets hope they all continue to push on over the next few months 

dodrade wrote:

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JonH comes home wrote:

Lily getting into the space where Wimbledon wild card for the main draw would become a real possibility (I cant remember if she had one last year as not paying too much attention but this year must look promising?)

-- Edited by JonH comes home on Wednesday 11th of January 2023 10:40:42 AM

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 She's higher ranked now than when she got a MDWC last year so barring injury/collapse in form should get another one.

-- Edited by dodrade on Wednesday 11th of January 2023 11:27:53 AM

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 She will probably get one if ranked around where she is now. But as kundalini indicates there is the question of supply and demand which changes year to year and it is possible that there could be an unusually big demand this year.

Jodie poor return long off a 2nd 15-0, Jodie aggressive play, SJ keeps getting it back until JB f winner 15-15, wild f error long from JB 30-15, Jodie attempts b down the line but misses long 40-15, brilliant defence from Selena then forehand pass winner - only 1 first serve in that game *0-1

Lucky net cord b return winner off a 2nd 0-15, Jodie struggles with a low backhand 0-30, Selena crushes a f return winner off a 2nd 0-40, Jodie backhand wide after 1st serve, broken to love 0-2*

JB forehand winner 0-15, JB b error net after rally 15-15, sensational forehand return winner 15-30, poor b error net from SJ 15-40, JB b error net 30-40, Jodie forehand crosscourt winner for the break *1-2

Delightful lob winner from Jodie 15-0, good play from JB finishing with b crosscourt winner into open space 30-0, JB b error net after 2nd 30-15, SJ subtle f winner 30-30, df 30-40, Jodie horror overhead wide after SJ keeps getting ball back, broken 1-3*

Jodie 2nd serve return into net 15-0, SJ pulls forehand wide after serve 15-15, rubbish return into net off a 2nd 30-15, SJ aggressive f 40-15, terrible smash long from Jodie *1-4

SJ b pass winner 0-15, Jodie b error net after serve 0-30, unret 1st 15-30, unret 1st 30-30, SJ b pass just wide after JB volley 40-30, SJ f wide 2-4*

Another 2nd serve return into the net from Jodie 15-0, aggressive b down the line from Burrage 15-15, JB f error long 30-15, Jodie aggressive b error 40-15, ace *2-5

Jodie can't cope with a b slice 0-15, decent 2nd unret 15-15, Jodie puts easy volley into the net 15-30, wild df 15-40, unret 2nd 30-40, Jodie aggressive f crosscourt 40-40, wild b error long after serve 40-A,  Jodie drive volley winner 40-40, good wide serve unret A-, SJ b down the line winner 40-40, Jodie aggressive play finishing with a f winner A-, brilliant backhand winner after 1st serve 3-5*

Jodie aggressive b return off a 2nd 0-15, good defence from JB then unleashes b down the line 0-30, poor b pass into net from JB, annoyed with herself 15-30, good 1st serve unret 30-30, Jodie attacks the net, SJ b pass is long 30-40, Burrage error after a rally 40-40, unret 1st A-, wild attempt at f down the line from Burrage 3-6

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Jodie cleared frustrated by Selena's ability to keep the ball in play. Jodie having to hit more attacking shots in a rally than she's comfortable with, ending in some horrible errors. Even good serves are coming back. 2nd serve return nowhere near good enough.

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SJ poor return into net off a 2nd 15-0, a rare backhand error wide from Selena 30-0, ace out wide 40-0, JB f error long after 2nd 40-15, Jodie lands a smash winner 1-0*

Huge forehand return winner off a 2nd 0-15, super forehand winner from Jodie 0-30, JB b error net 15-30, df 15-40, good play from Jodie finishing with a volley winner into the open space *2-0

Poor forehand error from SJ 15-0, deep return off a 2nd 15-15, Jodie poor drop shot into the net 15-30, JB f winner after 2nd 30-30, SJ careless b error wide 40-30, SJ aggressive f crosscourt, Jodie pass miles wide 40-40, df 40-A, Jodie smash winner 40-40, df 40-A, surprising f error net from Selena 40-40, super backhand winner down the line from Burrage A-, rubbish f error into the net from JB 40-40, brilliant backhand winner after 1st serve A-, SJ aggressive b return off a 2nd 40-40, unret 1st A-, lucky net cord return winner off a 1st 40-40, JB f winner after 1st A-, good wide serve SJ return just wide 3-0*

Selena drop shot winner after Jodie drop shot 15-0, poor return long off a 2nd 30-0, repeat 40-0, JB b error net *3-1

Lucky net cord return winner off a 2nd 0-15, good play from Jodie finishing with a f winner 15-15, poor return into the net off a 2nd 30-15, Jodie deals well with low ball, her f deep 40-15, Jodie rubbish b into the net 40-30, Burrage f winner after good T serve 4-1*

Poor b return into net off a 2nd 15-0, poor f error into net from JB after a rally 30-0, Jodie aggressive b 30-15, JB aggressive f 30-30, brutal backhand return off a 1st 30-40, Jodie good play, finishing with an aggressive f for the break *5-1

Unret 1st 15-0, Selena dominates but her forehand is just wide 30-0, Jodie good play finishing with a f drive volley winner 40-0, unret 1st 6-1

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A lot better from Jodie, Selena's level was significantly lower in that set, more careless errors from her. Jodie still needs to do better returning 2nd serves. Could serve better too.

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df 0-15, Jodie poor b into the net 15-15, unret 1st 30-15, repeat 40-15, repeat *0-1

Super return winner off a 1st 0-15, Burrage f winner after 1st 15-15, JB f winner after good T serve 30-15, unret 1st 40-15, df 40-30, Jodie with a subtle half volley winner, nice touch 1-1

Unret 1st 15-0, Jodie careless b error long 30-0, good 1st serve unret 40-0, JB f winner after good play 40-15, rubbish b slice into net from JB *1-2

Jodie b down the line is just wide 0-15, decent 2nd unret 15-15, ace out wide 30-15, rubbish b into net from Jodie after rally 30-30, decent T 1st unret 40-30, poor b into net after 2nd 40-40, Jodie smash winner A-, good 1st serve but Jodie f gives SJ opportunity which she fails to take 2-2

Good wide 1st serve 15-0, Jodie 2nd serve return long 30-0, wide 1st unret 40-0, another return long after a 2nd *2-3

SJ aggressive return of 2nd then f winner 0-15, SJ careless b error net 15-15, JB b long after 2nd 15-30, rubbish f error net from Selena 30-30, Jodie b just long after 2nd 30-40, Jodie good play, SJ b wide 40-40, good play from Jodie backhand crosscourt A-, decent return off a 1st Jodie f long 40-40, Jodie poor f net 40-A, Selena aggressive b return off a 2nd for the break - too many 1st serves missed by narrow margin in that game 2-4*

SJ delightful drop shot winner after net cord 15-0, Selena volley 30-0, super f winner after serve 40-0, Selena slice b approach is just wide 40-15, probably unret 1st *2-5

Jodie volley winner 15-0, terrible f drive volley into net after good 1st 15-15, Jodie deep volley, Selena f pass into net 30-15, Selena aggressive b return 30-30, Jodie doesn't do enough with a volley, allowing SJ to hit b pass winner 30-40, Selena forehand pass winner for the match 2-6

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Jodie's weaknesses rather exposed by an opponent who defended extremely well, very little pace on Selena's shots, even good Burrage first serves would typically get block returned into court. Jodie's first serve wasn't good enough today, so many T serves missed by a narrow margin. In the 2nd set she performed reasonably well but her level was poor in the first and third sets. At times Jodie's shot selection during the rallies was terrible, as though she wanted to finish the point with that shot even if was very low percentage. 

In the 3rd set Selena had high first serve percentage, kept her errors to a minimum and then exploited Jodie's 2nd serve.

Not sure Activeboard would accept my thoughts on Jodie's return of 2nd serves today. Selena won 71% of her 2nd serve points including 2 dfs. The official stats say Jodie made 9 return unforced errors. Jodie's 2nd serve an unfortunate combination of aggressive attempts that missed, resulting in 5 dfs, slower serves that got attacked (her average speed on 2nd a lot lower today) and too many errors on her first groundstroke after a 2nd.