Weeks 26 and 27 - The Championships, Wimbledon (grass) - women's singles

PaulM · Tennis legend

Weeks 26 and 27 - The Championships, Wimbledon (grass) - women's singles

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

PaulM wrote:
Keys the first withdrawal. Vandewege gets the lucky loser spot.

NO !!!!!!!!!!!!

That's annoyed me....... ..... (Vandewege, that is, not Keys)

seagull · Hall of fame

Emma follows Novak on Centre. Followed by Andy

foobarbaz · Strong Club Player

foobarbaz wrote:
A re-match with Keys could be on the cards, if Swan can get the R1 win.

With Keys' withdrawal, the seeded player in Swan's sub-section of the draw is now Zhang [33].

Pancho P · Lower Club Player

Avu favourite to win tomorrows match with 365, but Emma 9/1 against Avu 10/1 to win quarter. Presumably they see Emma more likely to get a deep run going. Great moment for her and fans tomorrow stepping out onto centre court.

dodrade · Satellite level

Heather always seems to get fortunate draws but often fails to take advantage.

steven · Tennis legend

JonH comes home wrote:
Tennis Abstract forecasts round one wins for Sonay, Harriet, Katie B and Heather.

None of them are forecast to win a second match. Katie B has a 0.3% chance of winning the title; Emma has a 0.1% chance, despite only being roughly a 1/3rd chance of winning her opener.

So, 4 wins in total are forecast in round one in terms of likely winners. But, in actual fact, adding the percentage together gives an overall forecast of 3.6 wins in total in round one.

When I checked the bookies' odds on Sunday afternoon, they were implying the following R1 win probabilities:

81%	Harriet
81%	KatieB
68%	Heather
64%	Sonay
40%	Emma
32%	Jodie
32%	KatieS
24%	Lily

So, four favourites to win and an expected value of 4.2.

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

steven wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
Tennis Abstract forecasts round one wins for Sonay, Harriet, Katie B and Heather.

None of them are forecast to win a second match. Katie B has a 0.3% chance of winning the title; Emma has a 0.1% chance, despite only being roughly a 1/3rd chance of winning her opener.

So, 4 wins in total are forecast in round one in terms of likely winners. But, in actual fact, adding the percentage together gives an overall forecast of 3.6 wins in total in round one.
When I checked the bookies' odds on Sunday afternoon, they were implying the following R1 win probabilities:
81% Harriet - 73% on TA
81% KatieB - 73% on TA
68% Heather -62% on TA
64% Sonay - 53% on TA
40% Emma - 35% on TA
32% Jodie - 23% on TA
32% KatieS - 20% on TA
24% Lily - 23% on TA
So, four favourites to win and an expected value of 4.2.

Here are the TA forecasts against the bookies odds - seems to be quite a consistent difference between TA and the bookies, again, as per mens, some sort of hometown element that gets built into the bookies odds?

HarryGem · Club Coach

I think 4 to get through is really quite likely and I'd be a bit disappointed with fewer than that. six to qualify would be an excellent result but I don't expect that many unless both Emma and Jodie win.

PaulM · Tennis legend

Well Jodie's already playing infinitely better than she did last year. Some really good exchanges in the first couple of games.

*1-1

Grachka · Club Coach

Jodie a bit erratic at the beginning of the match, so drops her serve. Tsurenko's serve is really attackable and Jodie had 0-40 chances to break back straight away, but wasted them.

Tsurenko is a very dogged rallier and finds really awkward parts of the court to play into, so has really been making Jodie play all available shots. Key will be getting on top of her serve.

[WC] Jodie Burrage *1-3 Lesia Tsurenko

PaulM · Tennis legend

Just over hitting a lot still. If she can get zoned in on the return she will be fine I think. Should be dominating it but being careless.

-- Edited by PaulM on Monday 27th of June 2022 10:33:29 AM

PaulM · Tennis legend

Thank goodness for this rain delay. She was unravelling at pace and it was becoming unwatchable. Disappointing after a good start, she's clearly incredibly tight. Hopefully the break she can settle and show better of herself when they come back out.

2-5*

foobarbaz · Strong Club Player

I kinda think the unforced errors (overhitting) and subsequent nervous play have been brought about by Tsurenko's consistency in the rallies. A few times Jodie has been in the ascendancy in the rally and mid-court, but instead of just dropping it over the net, she's hit it to the baseline again, extending the rally and playing to Tsurenko's strengths. One drop shot was played, albeit more from the back of the court, and Tsurenko made a hash of the return. The tactics are just a bit gung-ho and predictable, if she can mix it up a bit, the match could swing back in her favour.

emmsie69 · ATP level

MTO for a ballboy on Jodies court