Weeks 26 and 27 - The Championships, Wimbledon (grass) - men's singles

brittak · Pro player

RE: Weeks 26 and 27 - The Championships, Wimbledon (grass) - men's singles

steven · Tennis legend

JonH comes home wrote:
TA forecast that Djoko will take the title over Berretini.

In terms of Brits:

Andy, Cam, Ryan, Dan are forecast to win their opening matches - so, 4 wins like the women's side. The percentages suggest 4.6 wins in fact, could argue that is closer to 5!

Dan is rated as the most likely winner with 0.8% chance, Andy is 0.7% and Cam is 0.6%

Andy and Cam are both forecast for the last 16 ,Dan for the last 32. So that would give us 9 wins overall in the mens singles, added to 4 in the womens - 13 overall.

I suspect many of us think there is more chance of wins than TA is forecasting, sorry Jeff, I hope you are proven wrong!!!

Bookies' odds were a fair bit more optimistic when I checked them on Sunday afternoon. Implied R1 win probabilities as follows:

94%	Cameron
79%	Andy
76%	Dan
76%	Ryan
73%	Jack
62%	Liam
53%	Jay
47%	Alastair
11%	Paul

Seven favourites (ok, six clear favourites, two too close to call) and only one little-to-no-hoper, though if Paul could pull off the win against Kyrgios, it would probably make me happier than any other win!

Expected value 5.7 - the expected value will usually be below the number of favourites if a clear majority are favourites to win.

So the expected number of R1 winners altogether (men and women) is 9.9, which still seems too 'out there' to be plausible but, should the number in R2 get into double figures, it would have me going back into the 20th century to find the last time it happened - unsurprising given the highest number of Brits in the singles main draws since 2001 and possibly the kindest set of R1 draws in living memory.

Tennis Saltire · Social player

steven wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
TA forecast that Djoko will take the title over Berretini.

In terms of Brits:

Andy, Cam, Ryan, Dan are forecast to win their opening matches - so, 4 wins like the women's side. The percentages suggest 4.6 wins in fact, could argue that is closer to 5!

Dan is rated as the most likely winner with 0.8% chance, Andy is 0.7% and Cam is 0.6%

Andy and Cam are both forecast for the last 16 ,Dan for the last 32. So that would give us 9 wins overall in the mens singles, added to 4 in the womens - 13 overall.

I suspect many of us think there is more chance of wins than TA is forecasting, sorry Jeff, I hope you are proven wrong!!!

Bookies' odds were a fair bit more optimistic when I checked them on Sunday afternoon. Implied R1 win probabilities as follows:
94% Cameron
79% Andy
76% Dan
76% Ryan
73% Jack
62% Liam
53% Jay
47% Alastair
11% Paul
Seven favourites (ok, six clear favourites, two too close to call) and only one little-to-no-hoper, though if Paul could pull off the win against Kyrgios, it would probably make me happier than any other win!
Expected value 5.7 - the expected value will usually be below the number of favourites if a clear majority are favourites to win.
So the expected number of R1 winners altogether (men and women) is 9.9, which still seems too 'out there' to be plausible but, should the number in R2 get into double figures, it would have me going back into the 20th century to find the last time it happened - unsurprising given the highest number of Brits in the singles main draws since 2001 and possibly the kindest set of R1 draws in living memory.

Quite surprised at Dan having a 76% win probability as he's been on poor form bar the win at Nottingham against though I do see him win, perhaps in 4.

Cam is another in poor form on grass but I also expect him to win in 4.

I'd say Andy odds about right :).

emmsie69 · ATP level

Anyone going today found their tickets, mine have disappeared

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

emmsie69 wrote:
Anyone going today found their tickets, mine have disappeared

You what???

Madadman · Top national player

emmsie69 wrote:
Anyone going today found their tickets, mine have disappeared

Not going today, But mine are still in the app for Friday.

emmsie69 · ATP level

Panic over, email went into others folder so I hadn't accepted them

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

steven wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
TA forecast that Djoko will take the title over Berretini.

In terms of Brits:

Andy, Cam, Ryan, Dan are forecast to win their opening matches - so, 4 wins like the women's side. The percentages suggest 4.6 wins in fact, could argue that is closer to 5!

Dan is rated as the most likely winner with 0.8% chance, Andy is 0.7% and Cam is 0.6%

Andy and Cam are both forecast for the last 16 ,Dan for the last 32. So that would give us 9 wins overall in the mens singles, added to 4 in the womens - 13 overall.

I suspect many of us think there is more chance of wins than TA is forecasting, sorry Jeff, I hope you are proven wrong!!!

Bookies' odds were a fair bit more optimistic when I checked them on Sunday afternoon. Implied R1 win probabilities as follows:
94% Cameron - 88% on TA
79% Andy - 84% on TA
76% Dan - 81% on TA
76% Ryan - 73.5% on TA
73% Jack - 34% on TA (big difference!)
62% Liam - 48% on TA
53% Jay - 27% on TA (quite a big difference!)
47% Alastair - 19% on TA
11% Paul - 13% on TA

Interesting to compare - here are the bookies odds with TA's forecast against them in your table above.

It looks like Jay, Jack, Ali and Liam are much higher rated by the bookies. Presumably that is a home town advantage thing going on which TA probably wouldnt build into their algorithm?

-- Edited by JonH comes home on Monday 27th of June 2022 09:02:18 AM

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Bookies' odds, once established, are basically a reflection of money flows rather than any probability predictions - the betting sites need to cover their exposure, no matter what

So, yes, a UK site such as Bet365 is often rather skewed towards UK players, in my experience, as it reflects where the money is coming from - the 'value' side is normally the foreign player

I've gone for a mixture of head and heart

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Several of the US commentators seems to think it's pretty disrespectful of the AELTC to put Cam Norrie on Court 2 at 11 am, given he's the top GB male player AND a top-10 seed....

the addict · Tennis legend

Coup Droit wrote:
Several of the US commentators seems to think it's pretty disrespectful of the AELTC to put Cam Norrie on Court 2 at 11 am, given he's the top GB male player AND a top-10 seed....

Just how many top seeds do they think they can get on Centre and No 1 in a single day ? At least he was put on No 2. Murray and Alcarez were bound to attract greater attention than Cam.

emmsie69 · ATP level

2 will be a great court with proper tennis fans today.
Anyone coming along this week get here for 10

-- Edited by emmsie69 on Monday 27th of June 2022 10:10:16 AM

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Cam started very well, 5-0 up in 19 mins played so far

Rich2310 · Club Coach

Wow 6-0 first set from Cam. Can't ask for a better start.

Stircrazy · Tennis legend

JonH comes home wrote:
Cam started very well, 5-0 up in 19 mins played so far

And takes it by 6-0. smile

From Stu Fraser's assessment of the British players' chances in today's Times:

Cameron Norrie
Age: 26, Ranking: 12, First round opponent: Pablo Andújar (Sp, world No 100), Head to head: 0-0, Chance of victory: 9/10

Norrie has been the most consistent performer in British tennis over the past 12 months, claiming four ATP tour titles. Posed problems for Roger Federer in the third round last year before losing in four sets. Veteran Andujar, 36, has not played a match on grass this year and has lost in the Wimbledon first round six times in eight appearances.