They really do need to look at whatever ranking system they currently use and readjust it sharply. The difference between that 3rd and 4th group is so stark, and will more than likely lead to some one sided QFs like we saw the other week when Michelle squeezed past Soumeya in the group, and then was double bageled in the QF.
Just a quick simple change like swapping Marni or Lauryn for Maddie or Michelle and it's already far more balanced - the latter two should not be in the same group where two players advance.
My guess is they use the UTR after placing those with a WTA ranking but as the UTR site is not designed for the casual fan its impossible to find a player's UTR. I assume after placing the top 4, the rest are drawn from a pot of 4 for #2s and a pot of 4 for #3s.
If we use the WTN instead which should be fairly similar order to the UTR, then the #2 and #3 players are right. The only question mark is why LJB is placed higher than Stresnakova. That will be correct on tomorrow's rankings when LJB regains a WTA ranking, but they're both unranked today and Stresnakova has the higher WTN, LTA combined ranking and LTA rating.
Based on WTN the order would be Alice Gillan WTA 873 - A1 Andre Lukosiute WTA 1138 - B1 Holly Hutchinson WTA 1428 - D1 Katie Stresnakova 6.5 - B2
My guess is they use the UTR after placing those with a WTA ranking but as the UTR site is not designed for the casual fan its impossible to find a player's UTR. I assume after placing the top 4, the rest are drawn from a pot of 4 for #2s and a pot of 4 for #3s.
If we use the WTN instead which should be fairly similar order to the UTR, then the #2 and #3 players are right. The only question mark is why LJB is placed higher than Stresnakova. That will be correct on tomorrow's rankings when LJB regains a WTA ranking, but they're both unranked today and Stresnakova has the higher WTN, LTA combined ranking and LTA rating.
Based on WTN the order would be Alice Gillan WTA 873 - A1 Andre Lukosiute WTA 1138 - B1 Holly Hutchinson WTA 1428 - D1 Katie Stresnakova 6.5 - B2
Issy Purser 12.0 - B3 Michelle Dzjachangirova 14.1 - D3 Hannah Smith 14.3 - A3 Marni Banks NA - C3
For some reason Marni doesn't have a WTN, at least not showing on her LTA competitions profile.
Edit: typo
-- Edited by Lambda on Sunday 20th of February 2022 07:43:44 AM
I guess as it is privately run with no official position, UKPL has a lot of latitude on seedings and draws so long as they are credible? Maybe they took the view , as you say, that come the start of the event , Lauryn will have a ranking and therefore seeded her on that basis?
My guess is they use the UTR after placing those with a WTA ranking but as the UTR site is not designed for the casual fan its impossible to find a player's UTR. I assume after placing the top 4, the rest are drawn from a pot of 4 for #2s and a pot of 4 for #3s.
If we use the WTN instead which should be fairly similar order to the UTR, then the #2 and #3 players are right. The only question mark is why LJB is placed higher than Stresnakova. That will be correct on tomorrow's rankings when LJB regains a WTA ranking, but they're both unranked today and Stresnakova has the higher WTN, LTA combined ranking and LTA rating.
Based on WTN the order would be Alice Gillan WTA 873 - A1 Andre Lukosiute WTA 1138 - B1 Holly Hutchinson WTA 1428 - D1 Katie Stresnakova 6.5 - B2
Issy Purser 12.0 - B3 Michelle Dzjachangirova 14.1 - D3 Hannah Smith 14.3 - A3 Marni Banks NA - C3
For some reason Marni doesn't have a WTN, at least not showing on her LTA competitions profile.
Edit: typo
-- Edited by Lambda on Sunday 20th of February 2022 07:43:44 AM
I guess in theory, they could just have the top 4 seeded, and then a free for all for the other 8, which wouldn't be too dissimilar to WTA events where the seeds will be kept separate and then you could get the 1st and 2nd highest ranked unseeded players playing each other in R1 and a bunch of Q's and WC's in another section, but I don't think it will be based on UTR's, because odds are largely based on those, and if somehow, hypothetically, they had oddsmakers ranking then based on results / perception, Maddie and Michelle would absolutely be towards the bottom end of the pile because they are big betting underdogs in pretty much every match they play. E.g. Maddie played LBJ less than 4 months ago, lost 2-6 1-6 and was a big 5.00 or 4/1 underdog heading into it, and that's even before LBJs very solid ITF results this year, so it's like night and day comparing them.
WTA ranking is probably the fairest way to rank the top end players, but when we're talking 1,400, especially when points can be gained from 2019 in this current era, it's also perhaps not the best methods in reality, but you can't really complain when there are visible facts involved. Nadia and Holly exchanged wins last year (albeit Nadia's was an early retirement), but the odds heading into those matches were 2.16 vs 1.61. and 2.07 vs 1.65, which would suggest not too much between them, but Nadia will do very well not to finish bottom of her group, whereas Holly on paper has two pretty easy matches.
I'm probably looking into it far too much for one week of a domestic exho event, but if I was ranking those 6 based on results (inc UKPL) / odds / perception, I would have it Lauryn, Marni, Holly, Nadia, Maddie, Michelle, so it just seems a bit naff that one of two players who are pretty much always outsiders is going to make the QF, whereas a player like Nadia, who can get the odd great standout result, even if inconsistent, is up against it. I just don't see any world where the 2 M's can be ranked higher than the other 4.
Women's scores yesterday, Alice won 6-3 6-4, Lauryn 6-4 6-2, Holly 6-3 6-1, Andre 6-1 7-6.
Today:
Alice 6-2 6-3 Hannah
Lauryn 6-1 3-6 10-7 Marni
Holly 6-3 6-0 Maddie
Andre 6-3 6-0 Katarina (looks an impressive score line)
So, with the match one winners staying on (finally), all deciding matches were guaranteed to be 'live', and with all the day 1 winners all winning again today, it means 4 'winner take all' matches tomorrow to determine 2nd place:
Hannah vs Danielle
Marni vs Nadia
Maddie vs Michelle
Katarina vs Issey
Dan Cox just snuck a win over Alexis Canter, 10-8 in the MTB
Charlie Broom beat Josh Paris, 1 & 3
Oscar Weightman def. Dan Little in two tie-breaks
Julian Cash def. Jack Gibbens 5 & 2
Excellent win for Brandon over Dan Little, 7-6(6) 6-3
Alexis def. Samm Butler 6-2 7-6(6)
CHarlie Broom beat Tom Hands 7-6(5) 6-4
Julian Cash def. William Jansen 6-7(4) 7-6(6) 10-6