Weeks 35/36 - US Open, Flushing Meadows, New York City (hard)

PaulM · Tennis legend

Weeks 35/36 - US Open, Flushing Meadows, New York City (hard)

Jan · Hall of fame

cry cry cry

the addict · Tennis legend

PaulM wrote:
On a separate note, surprising and a bit worrying to see that Katie hasn't entered the French Open or any of the lead-in events with her PR. Hope she's not picked up another injury.

Katie has also entered and withdrawn from 6 ITF events starting on either 7th, 14th or 21st Septenber, so I reckon there's a strong chance she's imjured again.

ROSAMUND · Futures level

PaulM wrote:
Her serve gave me concerns something wasn't right as it was so slow. But that's the neatest I've seen from Sorana in a long time.

To be honest I didn't think Jo would get out of her 8th with Sabalenka/Azarenka waiting, but did expect more than round 2. Maybe it would have been better for Heather to have won after all!

I've no idea what to expect from her on the clay.

Heather has played Cirstea in the past at the US Open and lost by a bigger margin. I don't think it was a favourable draw with potentially Azarenka , Kenin ,Serena and Osaka. Not going to happen was it. Look at the quater Martic is in and it looks a bit easier.

-- Edited by ROSAMUND on Friday 4th of September 2020 05:37:00 AM

ROSAMUND · Futures level

indiana wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
ROSAMUND wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
Tennis abstract rates Jo as most likely to reach 4th round now.

www.tennisabstract.com/current/2020USOpenWomenForecast.html
Are you sure it's not the other way round and it is Muchova who is expected to reach the 4th round? Assuming of course Cirstea and Muchova's 2nd round opponent don't win. Muchova is also another top player from the Czech Republic.
Sorry I read it wrongly, apologies.
I see that they give the clear highest % to Sabalenka for the QF. I'm not so sure that she will even beat Azarenka in R2.

Well Jon,the tennis abstract got that wrong. My comment about assuming Cirstea doesn't win was correct. I couldn't see how Sabalenka could be seen as a potential finalist

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Yes, here they describe how a coin toss was more accurate than a model in the first couple of weeks of wta action!

www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2020/08/17/the-post-covid-wta-is-drifting-back-to-normal/

ROSAMUND · Futures level

JonH comes home wrote:
Yes, here they describe how a coin toss was more accurate than a model in the first couple of weeks of wta action!

www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2020/08/17/the-post-covid-wta-is-drifting-back-to-normal/

Martina got it wrong as well as she predicted a 2 set win for Jo. Jo beating Heather in the 1st round of a US tournament and then losing in the next round happened at Indian Wells in 2017 against Caroline Garcia. Look at the draws Jo got when she reached the Semis in Australia and Paris and this was too big an ask even if it ended a round too soon.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

None of this 'the draw was tricky' argument, though, really confronts the problem that JoKo wasn't playing that well

ROSAMUND · Futures level

Coup Droit wrote:
None of this 'the draw was tricky' argument, though, really confronts the problem that JoKo wasn't playing that well

What about the fact that Cirstea played well.

flamingowings · All-time great

ROSAMUND wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
Yes, here they describe how a coin toss was more accurate than a model in the first couple of weeks of wta action!

www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2020/08/17/the-post-covid-wta-is-drifting-back-to-normal/
Martina got it wrong as well as she predicted a 2 set win for Jo. Jo beating Heather in the 1st round of a US tournament and then losing in the next round happened at Indian Wells in 2017 against Caroline Garcia. Look at the draws Jo got when she reached the Semis in Australia and Paris and this was too big an ask even if it ended a round too soon.

Well predictions are just that. Sometimes not based on facts but heart over head.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

ROSAMUND wrote:
Coup Droit wrote:
None of this 'the draw was tricky' argument, though, really confronts the problem that JoKo wasn't playing that well
What about the fact that Cirstea played well.

Yes, Sorana played well - very tidy, very balanced, great determination.

But it wasn't off the scale, JoKo has to look to herself for that defeat - as I'm sure she will.

Indeed, Jo's mantra of concentrating only on her own game, and not trying to adapt to the other's game because it makes her lose concentration, rather bit her in the match.

indiana · Tennis legend

Coup Droit wrote:
ROSAMUND wrote:
Coup Droit wrote:
None of this 'the draw was tricky' argument, though, really confronts the problem that JoKo wasn't playing that well
What about the fact that Cirstea played well.
Yes, Sorana played well - very tidy, very balanced, great determination.
But it wasn't off the scale, JoKo has to look to herself for that defeat - as I'm sure she will.
Indeed, Jo's mantra of concentrating only on her own game, and not trying to adapt to the other's game because it makes her lose concentration, rather bit her in the match.

This. Whatever the potential draw down the line and how well Sorana played on the day, that was a decent and very winnable Slam R2 match for Jo, one that it was perfectly reasonable to predict her to win and certainly could have still been won. She didn't, and that's much more Jo's issue than pundits and algorithms. Pity

ROSAMUND · Futures level

Moving on from the US Open where will Jo be playing next? Mike Dickson says Jo is now left to negotiate the various quarentine rules about returning to Europe before she decides whether to play in Rome's clay court Italian Open.

PaulM · Tennis legend

I think all elite athletes are exempt from the quarantine rules are they not? Unless, like Mladenovic, you are identified as a close contact of a positive test (she's not allowed to leave the US Open bubble for 14 days I believe).

indiana · Tennis legend

indiana wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
ROSAMUND wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
Tennis abstract rates Jo as most likely to reach 4th round now.

www.tennisabstract.com/current/2020USOpenWomenForecast.html
Are you sure it's not the other way round and it is Muchova who is expected to reach the 4th round? Assuming of course Cirstea and Muchova's 2nd round opponent don't win. Muchova is also another top player from the Czech Republic.
Sorry I read it wrongly, apologies.
I see that they give the clear highest % to Sabalenka for the QF. I'm not so sure that she will even beat Azarenka in R2.

I am afraid a quality player like Azaranka, back nearer her real best form, is liable to shoot down such a purely stats based calculator. I take it only very limited weight is given to last week's Cincy/New York as against her accumulated results over the last couple of years or so, with her troubles off court?