Week 41 - WTA International ($500k) - Tianjin, China - Hard

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

RE: Week 41 - WTA International ($500k) - Tianjin, China - Hard

Michael D · All-time great

So Heather squeaks by... thanks Kateryna!

R32: Harriet DART (GBR) 133 vs Kurumi NARA (JPN) [Q] 159 (CH:32 Aug 14)
R32: Heather WATSON (GBR) 125 def Kateryna BONDARENKO (UKR) UNR (CH:29 Oct 09) 6-4 7-6(3)

-- Edited by Michael D on Monday 7th of October 2019 11:23:07 AM

Status Quo · Intermediate Club Player

Ace Ventura wrote:
the addict wrote:
Don't you count WTA 125k's as main tour then, but you include qualies ?
Na, 125s don't officially count as a main tour match, or a title if you win. Zheng won San Jose the other month and that was billed as her first ever title, despite winning Anning 125k a few months earlier.

For the purposes of the WTA in-house stats, the exclude matches in $125K series, any form of qualifying match and any matches in Grand Slams.
They do count matches in the year end tournaments.

Any small comfort for Heather is welcome.
It will rather have me hopng again, against good sense, that it will once more be the first rung on a ladder upward, and the herald of better times more befitting her talent.
I often wonder with Heather whether I prefer the times when there seems to be no hope on the horizon, no glimmer of possible form.
It's the hope that kills you. But, I'll gladly die again in that cause.

emmsie69 · ATP level

Michael D wrote:
So Heather squeaks by... thanks Kateryna!

R32: Harriet DART (GBR) 133 vs Kurumi NARA (JPN) [Q] 159 (CH:32 Aug 18)
R32: Heather WATSON (GBR) 125 def Kateryna BONDARENKO (UKR) UNR (CH:29 Oct 09) 6-4 7-6(3)

That looks like a tough draw for Harriet

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

It won't be easy, relatively, but it's pretty fair for a WTA main draw. Michael has the wrong date for her career high, easy to do, but it was 18th Aug 2014 when she got to 32, so I guess not too dissimilar to Hev's 38 at the start of 2015 (and from our POV, many moons ago) - Nara actually had a spell at 238 last year, so has done a little better recently and does have 3 top 100 wins this year (between 86-94), but did also lose 3 and 1 to Hev in Vancouver a couple of months ago.

I'd imagine the odds would be around 10/11 for both, and for someone ranked 133, that wouldn't be bad for this level when the likes of Peterson and Venus, both in the top 60, were meeting in R1.

Michael D · All-time great

Ace Ventura wrote:
It won't be easy, relatively, but it's pretty fair for a WTA main draw. Michael has the wrong date for her career high, easy to do, but it was 18th Aug 2014 when she got to 32, so I guess not too dissimilar to Hev's 38 at the start of 2015 (and from our POV, many moons ago) - Nara actually had a spell at 238 last year, so has done a little better recently and does have 3 top 100 wins this year (between 86-94), but did also lose 3 and 1 to Hev in Vancouver a couple of months ago.

I'd imagine the odds would be around 10/11 for both, and for someone ranked 133, that wouldn't be bad for this level when the likes of Peterson and Venus, both in the top 60, were meeting in R1.

Yes, it's because they write the month first not last! disbelief

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

Michael D wrote:
Ace Ventura wrote:
It won't be easy, relatively, but it's pretty fair for a WTA main draw. Michael has the wrong date for her career high, easy to do, but it was 18th Aug 2014 when she got to 32, so I guess not too dissimilar to Hev's 38 at the start of 2015 (and from our POV, many moons ago) - Nara actually had a spell at 238 last year, so has done a little better recently and does have 3 top 100 wins this year (between 86-94), but did also lose 3 and 1 to Hev in Vancouver a couple of months ago.

I'd imagine the odds would be around 10/11 for both, and for someone ranked 133, that wouldn't be bad for this level when the likes of Peterson and Venus, both in the top 60, were meeting in R1.
Yes, it's because they write the month first not last!

Indeed, I've been stumped there before, but it does change perspective a bit if someone was ranked that high not too long ago.

Michael D · All-time great

Ace Ventura wrote:
Michael D wrote:
Ace Ventura wrote:
It won't be easy, relatively, but it's pretty fair for a WTA main draw. Michael has the wrong date for her career high, easy to do, but it was 18th Aug 2014 when she got to 32, so I guess not too dissimilar to Hev's 38 at the start of 2015 (and from our POV, many moons ago) - Nara actually had a spell at 238 last year, so has done a little better recently and does have 3 top 100 wins this year (between 86-94), but did also lose 3 and 1 to Hev in Vancouver a couple of months ago.

I'd imagine the odds would be around 10/11 for both, and for someone ranked 133, that wouldn't be bad for this level when the likes of Peterson and Venus, both in the top 60, were meeting in R1.
Yes, it's because they write the month first not last!
Indeed, I've been stumped there before, but it does change perspective a bit if someone was ranked that high not too long ago.

Oh it makes a huge difference. My first take was, 'gosh, was Kurumi really this high this recently?' Still I didn't bother to check the date again!

But this does increase Harriet's chances, and Harriet must start as the favourite.

flamingowings · All-time great

Re: the dates. That's why sometimes I just put career high and year!

Michael D · All-time great

flamingowings wrote:
Re: the dates. That's why sometimes I just put career high and year!

I don't bother with the actual date - just the month and year, but it's the year I got wrong, I was only 4 out!! wink

emmsie69 · ATP level

OK career high year does change things somewhat, I thought she was unlucky to draw a qualifier (good draw) that had a top 40 career high less than 12 months ago (bad draw) but as her career high was some years ago this shoud be competitive

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

Just looking on a price comparator site and converting it to fractions before they become more widely available, and Nara is the slight betting favourite. It's like 4/7 Nara and 11/8 Harriet, but then Dart has been the betting underdog in a few matches recently and managed to get the win, like Bogdan (Tashkent), Wang, and even Baptiste, so here's hoping for a 4th.

-- Edited by Ace Ventura on Monday 7th of October 2019 01:20:57 PM

Priesty · Challenger level

It's the sort of match Harriet needs to win if she's going to kick on I feel.

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Tennis abstract rate harriet a c 56 percent chance to win.

http://www.tennisabstract.com/current/2019WTATianjin.html

-- Edited by JonH comes home on Monday 7th of October 2019 05:04:57 PM

Babfive · Pro player

Harriet took the first set 6-3 but is 1-4 down in the second.