2018 male prediction rankings

Tennpar · Strong Club Player

2018 male prediction rankings

Bruce · Lower Club Player

I'll attempt this

1 Andy Murray 9
2 Kyle Edmund 52
3 Cameron Norrie 75
4 Jay Clarke 120
5 Dan Evans 125
6 Liam Broady 155
7 Jonathan Gray 260
8 Alex Ward 275
9 Brydan Klein 320
10 Ryan Storrie 395

Nix · Futures level

1. Murray 6
2. Edmund 38
3. Norrie 80
4. Evans 85
5. Clarke 155
6. Broady 165
7. Alex Ward 215
8. Klein 260
9. Corrie 275
10.Farquharson 340

-- Edited by Nix on Monday 1st of January 2018 09:20:35 AM

Sim · County player

2018 Tables are up and running here: http://www.britishtennis.net/predictions/2018%20Male%20Ranking%20predictions.htm

Please check your entries especially if you made a late change.

This is the current "leaderboard" which merely shows how close your predictions are to today's rankings so those at the top predict less change and those at the bottom more, and Bob in Spain does indeed have the boldest predictions.

Points Table

Smudge	63
Jiwan	62
Sim	62
Madadman	61
indiana	57
Strongbow	57
Nix	56
Toby	56
jonH	55
the addict	55
theemptyvessel	55
Vandenburg	55
Bruce	54
Coup Droit	54
brittak	53
Miriambee	53
The knight	52
Helen40	51
LordBrownof	51
hoots	48
Mervatron2	48
flamingowings	47
brendan	46
Michael D	46
thejester	46
cecil	45
Ian1314	45
Constant	44
FriendofLouieG	44
SuperT	43
tennpar	43
paulsi	42
HenmanHill	41
Robin	38
christ	37
Bob in Spain	30

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Great stuff, Sim.

By the way, can't remember whose suggestion it was, but I thought the idea of having a baseline prediction (i.e. a dummy one who just has the exact same rankings as of Jan 1st (or Dec 1st or whenever the end date for 2017 was) is a really good idea.

Ratty, I think, used to do that for his (her?) predictions. But Ratty has disappeared messing about on the river and we've now got no one....

I think it should be inserted - and clever names should be suggested (The Status Quo? Forum Form Finder?)

NB Way to go, Bob ! And I see that Vandy is not looking quite so radical, even my rather uninspired ones are more 'bold'

-- Edited by Coup Droit on Monday 1st of January 2018 02:07:25 PM

indiana · Tennis legend

Yes good idea re a control / status quo comparison. Ratty claimed to be very successful with basically going by current ranking. Was very successful one year at least but a little examination of their selections showed much less status quo than claimed.

Sim · County player

OK I will add today's standings as Status Quo.

Here are some stats from the entries showing no.of picks for each player, average WR prediction, highest and lowest picks and change from today's ranking for average.

Note the average is that of those who picked that player, so would be lower ranking for every player with less than 37 picks if everyone had predicted for every player. Toby is the one who predicts Andy will not be in GB top 10 (retired).

Marcus Willis at GB14 is the highest ranked player not to be picked by anyone.

So except Evo who is a special case every player is predicted to improve.....

	Picks	Average	High	Low	Actual	+/-

Andy Murray	35	10	1	54	16	6
Kyle Edmund	36	35	23	52	50	15
Cameron Norrie	36	75	30	155	114	39
Dan Evans	36	142	51	280	133	-9
Liam Broady	36	147	85	220	170	23
Jay Clarke	36	158	99	220	255	97
Brydan Klein	29	280	201	377	283	3
Alex Ward	34	223	145	350	290	67
Ed Corrie	18	323	230	500	358	35
Lloyd Glasspool	8	336	268	400	414	78
Tom Farquharson	21	334	250	475	460	126
Jonathan Gray	14	367	220	450	554	187
Luke Bambridge	2	368	335	400	575	208
Ryan Storie	7	364	320	405	679	315
James Ward	6	250	175	340	696	446
Oli Golding	5	262	175	320	844	582

-- Edited by Sim on Monday 1st of January 2018 06:43:34 PM

the addict · Tennis legend

Great stuff Sim, and thanks for running this again.

I think your summary might be slightly out - you only have 36 entrants on your leaderboard ! But the averages match pretty closely with the numbers I have on my own spreadsheet.

Sim · County player

Yes, I realised I had double counted one entry - now corrected

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

Despite my ambitious predictions, I actually toned them down a bit. I was very tempted to leave Andy out all together but decided against it at the last moment. Sadly, I may have been better off going for it. Speedy recovery Andy.

SuperT · Futures qualifying

Yes really sad news about Andy. If he's not fit for Brisbane after 6 months out I don't see how he possibly play Aussie Open. After just one day my first set of predictions are already looking seriously over optimistic. Shame it's too late to change now!!

indiana · Tennis legend

Some super optimistic idiot has Andy as WR 1 !

scottie1 · Futures level

indiana wrote:
Some super optimistic idiot has Andy as WR 1 !

I never entered the men's predictions because of Andy's health issues if healthy he could be back to number 1

indiana · Tennis legend

scottie1 wrote:
indiana wrote:
Some super optimistic idiot has Andy as WR 1 !
I never entered the men's predictions because of Andy's health issues if healthy he could be back to number 1

""if healthy" or at least healthy reasonably soon was the theory plus if not healthy who knows. This year certainly looks a window for a top player that can stand on his feet. Unfortunately, if you can't do too much more than that ...

Toby · Lower Club Player

It occurs to me I have probably miscalculated regarding predicting Andys retirement from the game and his end of year ranking in 2018 as his ranking would not immediately disappear and he be considered inactive until all his ranking points have fallen off. The exception would be if he requested removal in which case he would be immediately considered inactive.