For guaranteed end of season points, #15 is Toby with 85 points and #16 is Jay on 80 points.
Toby will remain top 500 by year end. I still query if Jay is guaranteed yet to stay top 500 but he will probably be OK.
The next 4's guaranteed points, allowing for the 4 points Giles is due to drop on 13/11 when next week's M25s add ( there are no further points drops due by any of them before the year end ) :
Anton 76 points ( Sunderland M25 next week )( Kyle 70 (.Sunderland M25 ) Giles 69 ( Canada M25 and then Canada Challenger the following week.) Harry 66 (.Sunderland M25 )
My instinct is Anton will make it from Sunderland. Kyle feels like touch and go if hes just got one event to play; Giles despite two events needs to surpass expectations. And Harry I wouldnt expect to make it. Feels like we will get 17 or maybe 18 by season end. But Im the pessimist and Paulisi may well have a more positive view !
So, confirmed as of today's rankings that we're now at 16 in the top-500 men, with livescores for next week showing:
Anton at ATP 506
Giles at 519
Kyle at 533
Harry at 551
Updated 20/11 minimum points ( with then no further points due off before the year end for any of these contenders ) :
14 with over 100 points.
15. Toby 85 16. Giles 85 ( 94 in he wins his Canada M25 final ) 17. Jay 83
18. Anton 76 ( in Slovakia M25 in week 45 ) 19. Kyle 70 ( in Portugal M25 in week 46 ) 20. Harry 66 ( in Greece M25 in week 45 and Greece M15 in week 46 )
Starting to get a little more interesting now. Not sure how many weeks our guys will play for? I see Ali lost today so he may prove not quite ready to be part of the gang fighting for the top 500 at this stage, the back up platoon.
Very interesting...
We had 17 - Anton is pretty much no 18. A win tomorrow would guarantee it.
Harry W needs a few more wins this week or next.
Kyle is playing Portugal 25k next week.
Yes, the dynamics changed quite a bit once Giles jumped up and over the line.
After the top 16, Anton had looked very likely to make the top 500, Kyle decent chance, and Giles and Harrry rather more unlikely for this year. So on balance I had thought - not this year.
But now counting one of the outsider two and with Harry adding further points, it's definitely game on.
It would be nice to have more backup, but there may be enough for the 20 by year end right there.
-- Edited by indiana on Thursday 9th of November 2023 08:43:36 PM
Yes, the dynamics changed quite a bit once Giles jumped up and over the line.
After the top 16, Anton had looked fairly certain of making the top 500, Kyle decent chance, and Giles and Harrry rather more unlikely for this year. So on balance I had thought - not this year.
But now counting one of the outsider two and with Harry adding further points, it's definitely game on.
It would be nice to have more backup, but there may be enough for the 20 by year end right there.
Kyle has two Portuguese events on his schedule, if he plays them, so it feels realistic he can make it. Harry just has Greece at M15 level next week, but week after doesnt look like he is entered anywhere. Anyone know his plans beyond that or will next week be the end.
im starting to be swayed that 19 is on. Harry seems to me to be the long pole in the 20 man tent! Surprised Bob isnt jumping in his car to ferry Harry from venue to venue through December , haha.
Yes theres been a lot of weak ITF tournaments last few months more than previous years so might be enough to get 18 or maybe even 19 after all which looked highly unlikely. Some good scheduling by the likes of Giles with the weaker 15k events. Long term not sure how many on the cusp can rise much higher but its good to see a few players older in years not defecting to doubles. There was a spate of young players like Jonny OMara, Luke Bambridge and a few others who went this path too early and I suspect regret that now when they look at the likes of Billy and maybe Giles and some others.