General election/politics

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

General election/politics

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

Blue_Belle wrote:
Got my overseas postal vote all set up. Not sure who to vote for (other than Not Tory) as my main concern is immigration (in relation to myself). Labour have said they are "concerned" about the increase in the wages required for spousal visas (I've you/your partner needs to earn £29k, increasing to nearly 40k in 2025) which impacts the majority of people outside of London who aren't politicians....

Just waiting for my application to get back on the electoral roll is approved. Got interesting when they asked for a document as 'proof of address' to somewhere I lived over 20 years ago, but managed to find an old mortgage statement with that address on it. Hoping that's enough.

Elegant Point · Satellite level

Bob in Spain wrote:
Bob in Spain wrote:
And the election hits keep on coming.

Ian Dale announced last week that he was standing down as an LBC presenter in order to stand as the parliamentary candidate for Tunbridge Wells on behalf of the Tory Party. And then somebody unearthed this classic from a podcast he had made with Harriet Harman.

"I have lived in Tunbridge Wells since 1997, slightly against my will. Ive never liked the place. Still dont, and would happily live somewhere else.

He has now reversed his decision to run.
And in an effort to out do Ian Dale, the one and only Nigel Farage has decided to run for MP of Clacton. Here's what he said in Feb of this year:
"Richard Tice probably does want me to replace him. But do I want to be an MP ? Do I want to spend every Friday for the next 5 years in Clacton".
Voters of Clacton need to send him a message. He has no interest in representing you. It's all about him.

Think they have - someone has just treated Nige to a banana milkshake makeover biggrin

Tanaqui · Club Coach

JonH comes home wrote:
My constituency has generally been Tory for a good while, with a Lib Dem MP maybe 15 years back called Phil Willis who was held in good regard. Lib Dems generally fight it out with Conservative and this year its a big target for them but, with the polling as it is, labour are in the mix this year - and weve just got a new labour mayor for the York mayoral seat which we are in.

So it could be a three way fight.nH comes home on Wednesday 5th of June 2024 06:20:17 AM

Jon, I hope you (and everyone else) don't mind me dropping a link to https://tactical.vote/ which has a suggestion for each constituency for where best to award your vote to elect a "progressive" MP. (The site has an explanation of how they make their recommendations.)

Could also be worth keeping an eye on what's happening in your constituency in the Sky/YouGov polling and predictions: https://news.sky.com/story/labour-could-be-on-course-for-194-seat-commons-majority-yougov-poll-13147370

-- Edited by Tanaqui on Wednesday 5th of June 2024 07:45:33 PM

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

Latest MRP poll (YouGov, I think) has Reform just 2 points behind Tories

Reform: 17%
Tories: 19%

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Tanaqui wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
My constituency has generally been Tory for a good while, with a Lib Dem MP maybe 15 years back called Phil Willis who was held in good regard. Lib Dems generally fight it out with Conservative and this year its a big target for them but, with the polling as it is, labour are in the mix this year - and weve just got a new labour mayor for the York mayoral seat which we are in.

So it could be a three way fight.nH comes home on Wednesday 5th of June 2024 06:20:17 AM
Jon, I hope you (and everyone else) don't mind me dropping a link to https://tactical.vote/ which has a suggestion for each constituency for where best to award your vote to elect a "progressive" MP. (The site has an explanation of how they make their recommendations.)
Could also be worth keeping an eye on what's happening in your constituency in the Sky/YouGov polling and predictions: https://news.sky.com/story/labour-could-be-on-course-for-194-seat-commons-majority-yougov-poll-13147370

-- Edited by Tanaqui on Wednesday 5th of June 2024 07:45:33 PM

Thanks Tanaqui. Id seen this and Im not sure it isnt limited - in my seat, it has a tactical vote for Lib Dem. But reality is if the labour swing is replicated into our seat, it genuinely would be a 3 way fight, and Im not clear from how the website reads that it is taking into account latest polling at all? Anyway, thanks and interesting. Im still undecided though !

Tanaqui · Club Coach

JonH comes home wrote:
Tanaqui wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
My constituency has generally been Tory for a good while, with a Lib Dem MP maybe 15 years back called Phil Willis who was held in good regard. Lib Dems generally fight it out with Conservative and this year its a big target for them but, with the polling as it is, labour are in the mix this year - and weve just got a new labour mayor for the York mayoral seat which we are in.

So it could be a three way fight.nH comes home on Wednesday 5th of June 2024 06:20:17 AM
Jon, I hope you (and everyone else) don't mind me dropping a link to https://tactical.vote/ which has a suggestion for each constituency for where best to award your vote to elect a "progressive" MP. (The site has an explanation of how they make their recommendations.)
Could also be worth keeping an eye on what's happening in your constituency in the Sky/YouGov polling and predictions: https://news.sky.com/story/labour-could-be-on-course-for-194-seat-commons-majority-yougov-poll-13147370

-- Edited by Tanaqui on Wednesday 5th of June 2024 07:45:33 PM
Thanks Tanaqui. Id seen this and Im not sure it isnt limited - in my seat, it has a tactical vote for Lib Dem. But reality is if the labour swing is replicated into our seat, it genuinely would be a 3 way fight, and Im not clear from how the website reads that it is taking into account latest polling at all? Anyway, thanks and interesting. Im still undecided though !

Yes, that's why I suggested keeping an eye on the Sky/YouGov predictions, too. I think they're doing another two polls before the election, so that might show how the votes are shifting and how they'll will fall out based on swing not just past performance -- plus it probably also depends on how well the Lib Dems promote themselves as the best tactical vote for people who just want to Get The Tories Out -- it may not be a seat Labour puts a huge amount of effort into?

But tricky choice!

(I'm in a very marginal Con/Lib Dem marginal, so it's much simpler here.)

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Ok, thanks. Hadnt checked that. Theyre predicting a likely Lib Dem take from the tories. Id hoped they might give predicted percentage votes by seat so you can see how close it but it doesnt appear to allow a drill down. Nonetheless, useful! Thank you!

indiana · Tennis legend

Jon, bet365 has betting on every constituency.

For Harrogate and Knaresborough ( which I deduce is your constituency ) the current odds are :

Lib Dems 3/10
Conservatives 11/4
Labour 16/1
Reform 40/1

So the bookies seem to think it is largely a 2 way fight with the Lib Dems favourites.

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

indiana wrote:
Jon, bet365 has betting on every constituency.

For Harrogate and Knaresborough ( which I deduce is your constituency ) the current odds are :

Lib Dems 3/10
Conservatives. 11/4
Labour 16/1
Reform 40/1

So the bookies seem to think it is largely a 2 way fight with the Lib Dems favourites.

Thanks Indy - and the local paper has picked up on the you gov poll with some numbers predicting similar

In Harrogate and Knaresborough, it projects Lib Dem candidate Tom Gordon has 46% of the vote, ahead of Conservative Andrew Jones on 30%. Mr Jones is bidding to win the seat for the fifth time since 2010.

Labour is on 14%, Reform UK on 8% and the Green Party on 2%.

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

JonH comes home wrote:
indiana wrote:
Jon, bet365 has betting on every constituency.

For Harrogate and Knaresborough ( which I deduce us your constituency ) the current odds are :

Lib Dems 3/10
Conservatives. 11/4
Labour 16/1
Reform 40/1

So the bookies seem to think it is largely a 2 way fight with the Lib Dems favourites.
Thanks Indy - and the local paper has picked up on the you gov poll with some numbers predicting similar

In Harrogate and Knaresborough, it projects Lib Dem candidate Tom Gordon has 46% of the vote, ahead of Conservative Andrew Jones on 30%. Mr Jones is bidding to win the seat for the fifth time since 2010.
Labour is on 14%, Reform UK on 8% and the Green Party on 2%.

Which supports the betting - I thought labour was closer so thats v interesting.

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

Not your typical party political broadcast. I found this incredibly moving from Ed Davey

twitter.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1798414489190334975

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Bob in Spain wrote:
Not your typical party political broadcast. I found this incredibly moving from Ed Davey

twitter.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1798414489190334975

Agreed- I hadnt realised his family story and situation.

Tanaqui · Club Coach

JonH comes home wrote:

Which supports the betting - I thought labour was closer so thats v interesting.

Looks like the pollsters and the bookies (who are presumably using the polls to set the odds) are factoring in that most people who are voting Anyone But Tories will vote Lib Dem simply because it's the historically second place party. If you're "eh, I don't much like either Lib Dem or Labour but I want to get the Tories out", it looks like the "safest" choice. In an election that was less strongly about kicking out the current government, Labour probably would do better (and may actually do better than the polls suggest.)

I'll be watching for the result in your constituency on election night with extra interest now!

Tanaqui · Club Coach

JonH comes home wrote:
Bob in Spain wrote:
Not your typical party political broadcast. I found this incredibly moving from Ed Davey

twitter.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1798414489190334975
Agreed- I hadnt realised his family story and situation.

Agreed that it's very moving. It's also very well put together. Obviously Ed Davey does have a powerful personal story to tell, but it could easily have come across as manipulative and inauthentic with slightly different editing, so well done to his media team.