Will Katie Swan be junior no.1?

tharris · Intermediate Club Player

RE: Will Katie Swan be junior no.1?

Oakland2002 · All-time great

Very good week for Katie. I think the use of decent was typically British, ie understating but implying very good although Katie has performed so well this year by her own standards perhaps decent is also appropriate.

wimdledont · Challenger level

Irrespective of further results, Katie will finish this week as JR4.

If she wins her singles match today, she will be second in the race to JR1, 2015, based on counting points scored in 2015 alone, overtaking both Kenin and Galfi, who have massive 2014 points left to defend.

To overtake Vondrousova, and finish as JR1 2015, she would need to win or finish as runner-up both here, and at the Orange Bowl.

She now seems certain to finish within the top ten, and qualify for the Junior Exempt scheme in 2016:

www.itftennis.com/juniors/players/junior-exempt.aspx

which gives her three wildcards.

And pretty certain to finish in the top eight, and gain entry to the Junior World Championship:

www.itftennis.com/juniors/rankings/world-champions.aspx

where she can win further wildcards and travel bursaries.

paulisi · Tennis legend

Let's just have a look at the points to defend for the rest of the year:

Galfi -480pts in singles, with only 90pts to replace. 180 pts in doubles with 75pts to replace. Currently on 1373.75
Vondousova- no singles points to defend and 225pts in doubles with 100pts to replace. Currently on 1140
Kenin- 312.5 in singles with nothing to replace.100pts in doubles with nothing to replace.Currently on 1057.5. Played Grade A this week and some decent points to add. currently on 932.5
Blinkova -120pts in singles with 75pts to replace. 180pts in doubles with 50pts to replace. Played Grade A this week and some points to add.
Mihailikova - 80 in singles with 20 to replace. 150 in doubles with 75 to replace. Currently on 917.5
Swan - No singles points to defend and just 80 doubles which have already been replaced this week playing Grade A. Currently on 870

If Katie were to win both singles and doubles this week, she would go up to
+175pts in singles
+100 pts in doubles

Which would put her on 1070pts and a real chance of catching Kenin and Vondrousova(assumes Galfi will continue with seniors)

paulisi · Tennis legend

Further to that looking at the entries. Kenin- is down for the three grade 1's and the Orange Bowl
Vondrousova is not down for any
Galfi is down for a grade 1 and Orange Bowl
Katie is only down for Orange Bowl.

Oakland2002 · All-time great

Looking at the honours role it just shows how much more physically advanced the girls are in terms of their development when compared to the pros, ie the correlation between elite junior to elite pro is such much tighter than n the men's game.

The junior exempt scheme seems well thought out and one could understand if the LTA s funding focus for elite juniors is aimed at facilitating qualification for and then total support for those who qualify for it, particularly on the girls side.

Fantastic to see Katie is now certain to benefit from it, it is now just a matter of degree

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

The Junior Exempt Scheme is well though out, I agree, but it is only really relevant - as a goal in itself - to players from countries who do not have many top flight tournaments.

i.e. of course it's the aim of juniors to do as well as possible but the exempt scheme just gives wildcards into top competitions and the French, American (and UK) girls etc. will all get wildcards anyway because their countries have enough top competitions to make it no problem.

So it helps transition for countries where transition, fundamentally, is a problem as the stepping stones don't exist naturally.

THerefore, personally, I think it would be daft if the LTA's funding focus was 'aimed at facilitating qualification for and then total support for those who qualify for it'.

The French federation couldn't give two hoots, I know; they are not oblivious to junior rankings, of course, but whether a player is junior 8 or junior 11 (for the purpose of this example) is utterly irrelevant because they say that it is their job to detect and support and aid the transition of junior players who will (very likely) become top adult players - extra wildcards might be nice but it's definitely not a goal in itself that they would specifically target. And that seems right to me.

wimdledont · Challenger level

Sorry I posted the wrong link, above...

Hereafter the link to the ITF Junior Masters, for the top eight layers in 2015...

www.itftennis.com/juniors/tournaments/itf-junior-masters.aspx

As noted, Katie's almost certain to qualify for the 2016 tournament.

paulisi · Tennis legend

As predicted - Katie climbs to 4th - Vondrousova will be hard to catch, Galfi and Kenin have big points to defend

1 VONDROUSOVA, Marketa +1 CZE 28 Jun 1999 21 1185.00
2 GALFI, Dalma -1 HUN 13 Aug 1998 20 1175.00
3 KENIN, Sofia 0 USA 14 Nov 1998 20 1096.25
4 SWAN, Katie +2 GBR 24 Mar 1999 25 985.00
5 BLINKOVA, Anna -1 RUS 10 Sep 1998 31 887.50
6 MIHALIKOVA, Tereza -1 SVK 02 Jun 1998 27 857.50
7 ARCONADA, Usue Maitane +1 USA 28 Oct 1998 26 855.00
8 ROBILLARD-MILLETTE, Charlotte +1 CAN 12 Jan 1999 29 839.38
9 KOLODZIEJOVA, Miriam +1 CZE 11 Apr 1997 25 808.75
10 ZHUK, Sofya +2 RUS 01 Dec 1999 19 804.38

philwrig · Hall of fame

I personally wouldn't be concerned if Katie stopped playing juniors apart from the junior GSs, she has shown herself to be an elite junior and thats good enough for me. It would be nice to see her use her full allocation of senior tournaments for her age, as she's already shown her ability to win 10ks. The extra WCs as CD has pointed out are not really relevant as Katie coming from the GB will get a few biggies anyway, and it's necessarily a bad thing to have to tough it out through qualies.

paulisi · Tennis legend

I agree, Katie only needs to play GS and a few grade A's and everything else should be seniors. She has proved her consistency this year on the junior circuit, even if she never won a singles tournament. Time to go earn some money and ranking points.

The only benefit for the junior exemptions would be she would be able to play some of the, more local for her, US tournaments which are notoriously strong and could still play in GB using wildcards.

Mervatron · Masters Series Champion

I agree. I don't think she gains much from too many junior events next year. Nice to mix them in as the pressure is different.

I wonder whether she plans on doing the junior Aus open next year followed by some challengers down there or start off with the US 25k's on green clay? Lots to decide.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

This made me smile

Katie Swan ‏@Katieswan99 Nov 24

Dealing with different situations: a fan hands you their baby... Stay calm and act like you know what you're doing😂

pbs.twimg.com/media/CUl981_WIAAv7yA.jpg

paulisi · Tennis legend

1 VONDROUSOVA, Marketa 0 CZE 28 Jun 1999 21 1185.00
2 KENIN, Sofia +1 USA 14 Nov 1998 22 1123.75
3 GALFI, Dalma -1 HUN 13 Aug 1998 18 1107.50
4 SWAN, Katie 0 GBR 24 Mar 1999 25 1037.50

Dalma has 150pts singles to defend and Sofia 100 doubles points to defend. Both have entered the grade 1, so still a chance for Katie to climb higher, but she needs a decent Orange Bowl set of results

TheTraveller2 · Lower Club Player

Sofia has a lot more points to defend I think. She won Orange bowl last year.