Will Katie Swan be junior no.1?

paulisi · Tennis legend

RE: Will Katie Swan be junior no.1?

wimdledont · Challenger level

I expect Katie to be JR5 on Monday. She has overtaken Arconada and Robillette-Millard, and must be overtaken by RG finalist Kalinskaya, cannot be overtaken by t'other, Badosa Gibert. I think.

Xu+ and Vondrousova+ are about to play a doubles SF. The winner of that match should be the JR1 on Monday.

paulisi · Tennis legend

Well calculated

1 VONDROUSOVA, Marketa 0 CZE 28 Jun 1999 21 1225.00
2 XU, Shilin 0 CHN 10 Jan 1998 18 1140.00
3 GALFI, Dalma 0 HUN 13 Aug 1998 20 937.50
4 KALINSKAYA, Anna +12 RUS 02 Dec 1998 23 907.50
5 SWAN, Katie +1 GBR 24 Mar 1999 29 856.25
6 ARCONADA, Usue Maitane -1 USA 28 Oct 1998 28 851.25
7 ROBILLARD-MILLETTE, Charlotte -3 CAN 12 Jan 1999 33 838.13
8 KOLODZIEJOVA, Miriam +10 CZE 11 Apr 1997 27 832.50
9 BOUZKOVA, Marie 0 CZE 21 Jul 1998 9 790.00
10 KENIN, Sofia +1 USA 14 Nov 1998 23 786.25

Points to defend around Wimbledon for top 5

Vondrousova - 180pts (S) -30 pts to replace
Xu - 180pts(S)(120 Wimb,60 Roeh) -60 pts to replace
Galfi - 180pts (D) -30pts to replace
Kalinskaya - Nil
Swan - Nil

For Katie lowest scores are 75(S) and 45(D)

paulisi · Tennis legend

Katie needs to get to the semi final or further in both competitions at Roehampton to improve on her points tally

Katie would need to win this week to climb to fourth.

verveandsolley · Junior player

With 4 of the world top 5 playing at roehampton tomorrow, I might have to pop along and asked how they compare. Lets hope better weather than monday

wimdledont · Challenger level

Katie should remain at JR5 on Monday, after Wimbledon. She will pass Kalinskaya, but Blinkova will overtake both.

Vondrousova JR1, and Xu JR2, will both lose significant points after failing to defend their in singles points from last year. Galfi, JR3, is defending RU doubles points.

So Katie will finish the week significantly closer to JR1 spot than she was at the start.

paulisi · Tennis legend

wimdledont wrote:
Katie should remain at JR5 on Monday, after Wimbledon. She will pass Kalinskaya, but Blinkova will overtake both.

Vondrousova JR1, and Xu JR2, will both lose significant points after failing to defend their in singles points from last year. Galfi, JR3, is defending RU doubles points.

So Katie will finish the week significantly closer to JR1 spot than she was at the start.

You forgot about miss Zhuk, who also goes past and pushes Katie down to no.6

wimdledont · Challenger level

Yes, apologies for that.

It now looks like the top ten or so are actually this year's junior competitors, rather than last year's champs, like Bellis, Ruse and Kasatkina, who have dropped down the junior rankings as they move into the WTA.

The more important question for the long-term might not be whether Katie gets to No1, but whether she is in the top 8 on Jan1 2016, and therefore eligible for the new fangled ITF World Junior Championships, which seems to come with a load of travel bursaries and wildcards.

She now has 5 decent (75+) singles rankings scores in 2015, out of a possible 6; but only 3 decent (75+) doubles scores.

After Wimbledon, she's closed the gap between her and JR1, but she also is more vulnerable to being dropped down out of the top 8.

paulisi · Tennis legend

New top 10 is as follows

1 M. VONDROUSOVA 1162.50
2 S. XU 1098.75
3 D. GALFI 1050.00
4 S. ZHUK 925.63
5 A. BLINKOVA 916.25
6 K. SWAN 906.25
7 A. KALINSKAYA 850.63
8 U. ARCONADA 848.75
9 C. ROBILLARD-M 840.00
10 S. KENIN 831.25

Katie has points to defend at the pre US Open event and the doubles at the US Open

tharris · Intermediate Club Player

Zhuk is defending a grade 1 title this week, and I wouldn't surprised if she doesn't show up, or loses early. That would put Katie back ahead of her.

paulisi · Tennis legend

Katie is back to 5, but quite a few are playing the European champs so expect big movement next week

1 VONDROUSOVA, Marketa 0 CZE 28 Jun 1999 22 1162.50
2 XU, Shilin 0 CHN 10 Jan 1998 18 1098.75
3 GALFI, Dalma 0 HUN 13 Aug 1998 22 1050.00
4 BLINKOVA, Anna +1 RUS 10 Sep 1998 29 916.25
5 SWAN, Katie +1 GBR 24 Mar 1999 29 906.25
6 KALINSKAYA, Anna +1 RUS 02 Dec 1998 23 850.63
7 ARCONADA, Usue Maitane +1 USA 28 Oct 1998 26 848.75
8 ROBILLARD-MILLETTE, Charlotte +1 CAN 12 Jan 1999 33 840.00
9 KENIN, Sofia +1 USA 14 Nov 1998 23 831.25
10 MIHALIKOVA, Tereza +1 SVK 02 Jun 1998 25 812.50

Mervatron · Masters Series Champion

When is Katie due to play next? I'm assuming she'll play the Canadian and US open juniors. But wondered if she may play one or two 10k events beforehand.

paulisi · Tennis legend

Katie is playing the Canadian open next week and is top seed, but is defending RU points after that only has QF doubles from US Open until end Oct

Katie has also climbed to no.4 in the rankings with Xu dropping down

1 VONDROUSOVA, Marketa 0 CZE 28 Jun 1999 22 1185.00
2 GALFI, Dalma +1 HUN 13 Aug 1998 24 1058.75
3 BLINKOVA, Anna +1 RUS 10 Sep 1998 33 926.25
4 SWAN, Katie +1 GBR 24 Mar 1999 29 906.25
5 ROBILLARD-MILLETTE, Charlotte +3 CAN 12 Jan 1999 33 840.00
6 ARCONADA, Usue Maitane +1 USA 28 Oct 1998 24 828.75
7 XU, Shilin -5 CHN 10 Jan 1998 16 816.25
8 KENIN, Sofia +1 USA 14 Nov 1998 20 813.75
9 MIHALIKOVA, Tereza +1 SVK 02 Jun 1998 27 812.50
10 KOLODZIEJOVA, Miriam +1 CZE 11 Apr 1997 29 808.75

Vondrousova has no points to defend this year now bar doubles points from the orange bowl, so will be very difficult to catch.
Dalma has a lot of points to defend in Nov/Dec
Blinkova only has points from Mexico to defend

So if Katie has a good US Open she could end up ranked 2nd, but I doubt she would catch Marketa

paulisi · Tennis legend

Katie is having a decent week in Mexico and should see a ranking boost if she goes well here and at the Orange Bowl, with Galfi,Vondrousova and Kenin having decent points to defend.

Am I right in thinking the world no.1 at the end of the year gets some exemptions in ITF tournaments?

TheTraveller2 · Lower Club Player

paulisi wrote:
Katie is having a decent week in Mexico and should see a ranking boost if she goes well here and at the Orange Bowl, with Galfi,Vondrousova and Kenin having decent points to defend.

Am I right in thinking the world no.1 at the end of the year gets some exemptions in ITF tournaments?

As far as I can tell, the last British girl to make a Grade A semi was Katy Dunne in Italy May 2013 (she also make semis in Japan in 2012). Prior to that Laura Robson Wimbledon 2010.

Decent? - they don't come along very often........