Naomi is overranked and I cannot see her knocking out her CH at anytime in the near future.
I disagree with that first part. I feel that Naomi earned all those points, often with good performances, all over the world, and justified the ranking she reached from those efforts.
You could say that she selectively picked fast courts to earn her ranking; and there may be something to that.
I can't see though that this is any different from the many players who score exclusively on clay. The ability to play with equally skill on all surfaces is not really applicable outside of the top 70-100 in the women's game, and it doesn't really become a requirement for progression until you become mandatorily ranked in to tournaments on your least favourite surfaces, at very high levels.
The example being, well, pretty much any Brit at the French Open, or someone like Teliana Pereira at Wimbledon or the US Open. Forced to play on those surfaces, or have it count on your record even if you don't, the deficiency is often glaring.
All players outside the pinnacle of the game selectively manage the surfaces on which they play.
I think the second part of the statement is fairer - Naomi may well have maximised her current potential, and will need to find some extra dimension to surpass the ceiling she has set thus far.
She has though already shown remarkable tenacity and application - outside of 'the system' - to get to where she has in this 'second coming'.
Surpassing her previous highs when many, myself included, thought she may probably never manage that.
A bit of consolidation, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 'third coming' of Naomi.
I certainly won't be writing her off again. (she can also be quite scary when riled, and I'm a coward )
I think its a case of Naomi being out of form. Wimby was a great experience and even before that she was close to beating a number of top 100 players. Clearly has struggled since, but I think her ranking is about right.
As for Tara, she has been playing a bit better recently, without winning, but the serve is the key to whether she can break her CH. A very talented ballstriker, but the serve/work ethic being the areas to work on.
Yes, I'd agree that Naomi was previously probably generally playing to her ranking, even at her CH ranking. She is out of form now, so playing at a level markedly below her ranking. I am not sure that I would describe players as "overranked" in such a situation, more just not currently playing to their ranking.
Re Tara, she is clearly capable of a level well above her current ranking, but she has also been out of form. There are loads of players that when in good form would play to a level above their ranking, and I can see contradictions in suggesting they are all "underranked".
Generally ( accepting points about players concentrating on clay or fast courts ) players are ranked pretty much where they deserve to be based on their last year's results. But at any time, just based on such as ultimate talent, consistency and form, they will be often playing markedly above or below that perceved ranking level.
Personally, I just prefer to look at players' most likely ranking movements in the short to medium term.