Will Andy qualify for the WTF 2014?

Madeline · Admin:Moderator + Tennis Legend

RE: Will Andy qualify for the WTF 2014?

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

Fed has now taken out Dimitrov in Basel which means nobody will be making a late charge this week. Personally, if it is now confirmed as Madelaine states above that Rafa will not be playing, I think Andy is all but "home and dry". (Famous last words?)

It would take a real upset in Paris with Dimitrov beating Novak or Raonic beating Fed amongst many other results for Andy NOT to qualify.

Hoping Andy can beat Ferrer tomorrow though. It would still be so much better psychologically to qualify 8th, than finishing 9th and knowing you are only in because Rafa pulled out.

Spectator · All-time great

Hmm. I don't think home and dry applies quite yet.

There's a lovely article about Mr Murray by Steve Tignor (whose writing I generally like quite a bit): www.tennis.com/pro-game/2014/10/when-andy-attacks/53088/ He's rather a fan of Mr Murray .... which means that the following is said with a sense of gentle ribbing, not in a condemnatory fashion. I quite liked it: "He was also more positive than normal. By which I mean that, along with beating his thigh with his racquet, smiling sarcastically toward his player box, and ranting at an invisible tormentor on court, Murray threw in a fist-pump or two."

Spectator · All-time great

PS: Have now seen Paris draw. Berdych has quite a good-looking draw, which is not unusually helpful. Don't think Raonic's draw (barring Federer) is too shabby either. Mr Murray's strikes me as pretty nasty - Benneteau can have streaky days; Dimitrov is dangerous; and then there's Djokovic (though his draw is not straightforward and he might be a bit rusty and/or distracted). Agree that Ferrer's draw is quite nasty, too.

The Optimist · ATP qualifying

Spectator wrote:
Hmm. I don't think home and dry applies quite yet.

There's a lovely article about Mr Murray by Steve Tignor (whose writing I generally like quite a bit): www.tennis.com/pro-game/2014/10/when-andy-attacks/53088/ He's rather a fan of Mr Murray .... which means that the following is said with a sense of gentle ribbing, not in a condemnatory fashion. I quite liked it: "He was also more positive than normal. By which I mean that, along with beating his thigh with his racquet, smiling sarcastically toward his player box, and ranting at an invisible tormentor on court, Murray threw in a fist-pump or two."

Not come across this writer before. Found it quite an entertaining read.

TMH · Futures qualifying

Bob in Spain wrote:
Fed has now taken out Dimitrov in Basel which means nobody will be making a late charge this week. Personally, if it is now confirmed as Madelaine states above that Rafa will not be playing, I think Andy is all but "home and dry". (Famous last words?)

It would take a real upset in Paris with Dimitrov beating Novak or Raonic beating Fed amongst many other results for Andy NOT to qualify.

Hoping Andy can beat Ferrer tomorrow though. It would still be so much better psychologically to qualify 8th, than finishing 9th and knowing you are only in because Rafa pulled out.

Unless Murray loses today then goes out in R1, which is not too unlikely given that he's surely more tired than Ferrer today and his patchy form throughout the year.

Win today, and I think he's all but secured.

Personally though, I think finishing the year in top 8 is more important than making the WTFs (as in, finishing 9th and qualifying isn't the goal here - although would help him if he can get a win or two in London... which I'm not convinced), looking ahead to Australia.

TMH · Futures qualifying

It's looking a hell of a lot nicer now, especially with Nadal's withdrawal (although the top 8 is still essential in terms of the Australian Open).

5 Nishikori 4265 - WITHDREW
6 Cilic 4150 - Qualified
7 Berdych 4105 - OUT
8 Murray 4095 - Valencia F -Robredo/Chardy (4295)
9 Ferrer 3865 - OUT
10 Raonic 3840 - OUT
11 Dimitrov 3555 - OUT

230 point cushion to Ferrer and 255 to Raonic. They now need to make the SFs (or better) to stand a chance of usurping Murray. Dimitrov needs to make the final.

Given how the top dogs are no longer all-conquering, and the nature of the Paris masters where there's usually a surprise winner, I'd say it is still very open.

Tomorrow is a huge opportunity for Murray now. A potential rematch with Robredo is on the cards - another Spaniard who just doesn't give in - so I really hope Murray has something left in the tank. A win tomorrow is worth more points (200) than making the QFs in Paris (180) and could really cement his place, needing just one of the four below him (excluding Cilic) to slip up or go out at the same stage in Paris (two if Dimitrov wins the whole thing).

So it's looking good, but it's not quite secure. Which is completely at odds with what I said immediately above. confuse

-- Edited by TMH on Saturday 25th of October 2014 03:32:49 PM

EddietheEagle · County player

Win this one tomorrow, perhaps another in Paris to cement qualification then tank after that to ensure a nice little rest before London.

Madeline · Admin:Moderator + Tennis Legend

I don't think Andy's competitive nature lends itself to tanking.

RJA · Hall of fame

Madeline wrote:
I don't think Andy's competitive nature lends itself to tanking.

Indeed. In any event another possibility has unexpectedly appeared on the horizon. If Andy wins today he will soar to 5th in the ATP race and will only be 510 points behind the 4th place Wawrinka. With Stan in such awful form there is a chance that Andy could get back to 4th by the end of the year and thus be seeded 4 at the Australian Open.

I have been sceptical about his recent scheduling but if it gets him back to 4th then that outcome will speak for itself.

Bruce · Lower Club Player

My understanding is that seeding for the Australian Open is not based on the ranking at the end of the year, but is based on the ranking after week 1 (Brisbane/Chennai/Doha).

Helen40 · Grand Slam Champion

Bruce wrote:
My understanding is that seeding for the Australian Open is not based on the ranking at the end of the year, but is based on the ranking after week 1 (Brisbane/Chennai/Doha).

Can't see that being the case, we'd be having the same scrum as we're having for the WTF.

Nah, it's on the rankings - so the last 12 months from whatever date the AO choose, typically a week or two before the start of the tourney.

Bob in Spain · Tennis legend

Helen40 wrote:
Bruce wrote:
My understanding is that seeding for the Australian Open is not based on the ranking at the end of the year, but is based on the ranking after week 1 (Brisbane/Chennai/Doha).
Can't see that being the case, we'd be having the same scrum as we're having for the WTF.
Nah, it's on the rankings - so the last 12 months from whatever date the AO choose, typically a week or two before the start of the tourney.

I think you may have mis interpreted what Bruce said. He is pretty much agreeing with you. It is based on the ATP rankings as they stand at the end of Week 1 of next year, which is one week before the AO starts. He isn't suggesting that it is based on the "Race to London" rankings after week 1 which I am sure we all agree would make the seedings a bit of a lottery. Might be more fun that way though LOL.

RJA · Hall of fame

Yes, AO seeding is based on ranking after Brisbane/Madras/Doha. In terms of trying to get 4th spot Andy won't be able to gain points because he is playing the Hopman Cup but Stan is the defending champion in Madras so could easily drop points.

TMH · Futures qualifying

Murray is now 510 points shy of Wawrinka in the race / 2014 points, who is in awful form. Would need to take a net 515 points from Paris and London to surpass him for 4th spot before Australia, or 765 to guarantee being ranked ahead of him going into Australia. Tough ask, and probably quite unlikely.

If he is 5th going into the Australian Open however, he stands a good chance of being top 4 coming out of it, unless Stan somehow manages to defend his title.

But let's worry about that for another day.