As freerider has started a male thread on rankings projections, I thought it only right to do something similar with the girls for rankings at the end of 2014:
Here goes:
1. Laura Robson 38
2. Heather Watson 70
3. Jo Konta 105
4. Tara Moore 143
5. Sam Murray 179
6. Naomi Broady 196
7. Jade Windley 352
8. Lisa Whybourn 356
9. Amanda Carrerras 358
10. Anna Smith 362
11. Katy Dunne 375
12. Emily Webley Smith 385
13. Katie Boulter 401
14. Manisha Foster 517
15. Lucy Brown 520
16. Harriet Dart 525
17. Freya Christie 533
18. Jasmine Aghar 750
19. Isabelle Wallace 810
20. Laura Deignman 820
I've tried to do it systematically looking at points earned in 2013, ability and impact on funding cuts. I'm suggesting Jade has outperformed in 2013, Lisa will take a while to get over the shoulder injury. Anna, Katy and Katie have ability and not much to defend. Similarly with Manish and Harriet. I can see Freya playing a lot more on tour this year and she has the ability, however I'm not sure if exams will get in the way. (Same for Jasmine). The dark horses could be those who have finished uni - so potentially Amy Sargeant or any others if they turn Pro.
Also, agree with Helen40 - there's the optimistic estimates (which are possible), and the realistic estimates which seem a bit dour but do take into account all the blips that might happen throughout the year.
Some passing predictions for the year as a whole (the one to 10 does my head in - my fault, my head):
Naomi will make top 200, no problem, but then slip back out and finish the year broadly unchanged.
JoKo will have a great year and make the top 60 or so (like Jaggy, also think she'll finish ahead of Heather).
Tara will break into the top 150 at some point over the year and get close to WR 120.
Amanda and Jade will get into the top 300 but not much more.
Emily may quit.
Anna will make top 350/300 if she doesn't get injured again.
Katy D will have a bit of a rocky patch but still progress.
Lucy will make the top 500 at some point but it'll be hard going.
Laura 9
Heather 49
Joko 95
Tara 160
Sam 165
Naomi 195
Jade 265
Lisa 280
Amanda 295
Katy D 310
(I admit there was nothing in 2013 that remotely suggested Laura could be top 10 in 2014. I'm attaching a lot of weight to Laura saying she didn't wish to be ranked 30th for long; in fact she dropped a further 14 places over the next few months!)
Not going to give specific predictions, want to go out on top after last years performance ;)
But for what its worth, these are my musings for 2014:
Robbo, very tough to predict, already injured, without a fulltime coach, but I do believe she has put in a big fitness shift, with a top fitness coach. Assuming the injury isn't too bad, anywhere from 20 to 70.
Hev, seems fully recovered from GF, dead cert to get back into the top 100, top 75 at least should be doable.
JoKo, is in the best form of the top 3, but does continue to lose matches she should win, top 100 should be a dead cert, but top 85 should be well within her reach.
Tara, poised for a big year, if fully focussed and injury/ health good, top 150 doable at least.
Naomi, poised to challenge previous career highs, if can sustain current form.
Sam assuming 100% fit, should be able to return to the top 200/150 range.
Anna Smith top 350 and Katy D hopefully the same mark.
-- Edited by philwrig on Friday 27th of December 2013 04:02:48 PM