2014 male ranking predictions

indiana · Tennis legend

RE: 2014 male ranking predictions

indiana · Tennis legend

So it appears Alex will beat Marcus for the no 10 spot on tiebreak.

Nos 4 & 5 are currently very close. If Kyle wins his R1 match he will overtake Ed and will then end up no 4 unless Ed ultimately goes one stage further than Kyle.

Liam should finish no 3, only being overtaken if and only if either of ( or both ! ) Ed and Kyle win their title and Liam doesn't make his SF.

Salmon · Tennis legend

I'm happy that (for once!) I'll not be at the bottom of something like this. smile

Sim · County player

2014 male ranking predictions Results

Sim · County player

2014 male ranking predictions

paulisi · Tennis legend

I'll take that - tied 5th and only a three points off a medal.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Take a bow, Ratty, you little rodent you :)

And congrats to Salmon and Imoen too.

And a big 'well done and thanks' to Sim - great job, Sim - really fun to follow through the year.

(personally, I have a bone to pick with Josh Goodall - a little unexpected comeback wouldn't have hurt you, would it ????)

BeefyDeedz · Pro player

It's a shame that Ratty was correct about Evo, his 'outlier' hit home far too close for comfort.

steven · Tennis legend

Congrats to the winners and thanks to Sim for running the contest - a nice format, if only players wouldn't get injured or otherwise go AWOL, eh!

Sim · County player

Full table is now uploaded.

http://www.britishtennis.net/predictions/2014%20Male%20Ranking%20predictions.htm

Sim · County player

Looking at how the players performed compared to predictions;

The joint winners were Liam Broady and James Ward both 38% above the average prediction.

Liam beat the most optimistic prediction.

The most accurate predictions, perhaps somewhat surprisingly was for Brydan Klein

	Picks	Average	High	Low	Actual	+/-	%

Andy Murray	22	3.0	1	5	6	-3	-103%
Dan Evans	22	130	91	280	289	-159	-122%
James Ward	22	166	76	250	102	64	38%
Dan Cox	21	251	151	341	314	-63	-25%
Ed Corrie	13	294	235	340	230	64	22%
David Rice	20	279	200	395	345	-66	-24%
Marcus Willis	19	278	223	365	340	-62	-22%
Kyle Edmund	22	220	130	320	192	28	13%
Byrdan Klein	7	294	207	350	293	1	0%
Ollie Golding	21	262	195	320	418	-156	-59%
Dan Smethurst	3	287	250	321	281	6	2%
Alex Ward	13	285	210	340	339	-54	-19%
Ashley Hewitt	2	299	292	306	565	-266	-89%
Josh Goddal	1	300	300	300	994	-694	-231%
Richard Gabb	1	310	310	310	610	-300	-97%
Liam Broady	9	305	248	375	188	117	38%
Josh Ward-Hibert	1	240	240	240	748	-508	-212%
Luke Bambridge	1	345	345	345	503	-158	-46%

Ratty · County player

I vaguely remember that my winning strategy was to boringly predict that everyone would finish 2014 in pretty much the same position that they started it. Apart from Dan Evans where I suspected that his success in the 6 weeks leading up to the 2013 US Open was (regrettably) a flash in the pan.

Er, does this mean I can start writing about regression to the mean again, without being flamed? smile

imoen · Admin: Moderator+Tennis Legend

I echo the others by adding my thanks for running this Sim.

I really have no idea how I've managed to end up 3rd though - I'm sure I've been very close if not at the bottom for each of the updates throughout the year!!

Salmon · Tennis legend

Can't believe that I managed to swim up to the second position. Thanks for organising this, Sim, and congratulations to all the winners.

Sim wrote:

The most accurate predictions, perhaps somewhat surprisingly was for Brydan Klein

The sample size is too small for me to take a clear stand on, but I'd say that it makes some sense. Klein is possibly the British tennis player with the least number of fans out here, and in general, we tend to overestimate the prospects of our favourites. Distance brings perspective, and all that.

I can't help but chuckle at the fact that the only prediction that I spectacularly messed up was Coxy, whom I had at 151. wink Look carefully and there's a fanboy/fangirl in all of us. Apart from the grumpy Ratty, of course - and then he (or is it 'she'?) goes on to beat us all. smile

Spectator · All-time great

Ratty wrote:
I vaguely remember that my winning strategy was to boringly predict that everyone would finish 2014 in pretty much the same position that they started it. Apart from Dan Evans where I suspected that his success in the 6 weeks leading up to the 2013 US Open was (regrettably) a flash in the pan.
Er, does this mean I can start writing about regression to the mean again, without being flamed?

While offering congratulations to the victor, I rather suspect the answer to the question is negative, given that of the ten chosen, only Mr Willis and Mr Ward wound up in roughly the same place ... and if you had predicted that Mr Broady would more than halve his ranking; Mr Ward and Mr Edmund cut theirs by about a third each; Mr Corrie would go up by 70; and Mr Klein would go up by 94, you would have done even better than you did!

On the other hand, if you want to lecture the rest of us on the merits of not being overly optimistic about the chances of the players (whoever they may be for each of us) whom we'd really love to see do exceptionally well against the odds - we'll all have to listen with equanimity.

(Then again, it's one of the rather lovely aspects of the competition that people use it to wish their favourite players well. Rational, no. A winning strategy, no. But rather lovely nonetheless)