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Post Info TOPIC: 2014 male ranking predictions


Lower Club Player

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RE: 2014 male ranking predictions


My predictions:

Andy Murray 4
Dan Evans 100
James Ward 150
David Rice 200
Marcus Willis 250
Alex Ward 251
Oliver Golding 270
Liam Broady 275
Kyle Edmund 299
Dan Cox 300

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Sim


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Possible scoring system

For each player 5 pts if get GB ranking spot on, 4 if one out, down to 1 if 4 out and for world ranking 5 pts if within 5%, 4 if within 10% downto 1 if within 25%.

So for GB ranking if player finishes ranked 7 and you predicted 7 then 5 pts, 4pts for 6 or 8, 3pts for 5 or 9 etc.

 For world ranking if player finishes ranked 100 then 5 pts if you predicted 95-105 downto 1pt if predicted 75-79 or 121-125. 

 

10pts max per player. 100 total if keeping to top 10 which is what most have gone for. 



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Tennis legend

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Seems pretty good to me, Sim, thanks for setting that out.

I'd just make one alternative suggestion :

The 1 point for GB rankings to be if you correctly predict that someone will be in the top 10 ( > 3 places out ) rather than just for 4 places out. I do think folk should get some definite credit for anyone they correctly predict to be in the top 10 ( apart from the separate potential reward of how accurately they then predict the WRs ).

I do like that, as with RBBOT's original thoughts, there are no negative connotations for prediction disasters such as long injuries or illness or even retirements or changing nationalities ( Bradley ? ). Just are effectively in danger of many less points than you hoped for ( even 0 ), but no need for any ranking adjustments, it's just a risk you run.

Nice that it's out of 100, I like round numbers.

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Challenger level

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Murray 3
Evans 128
J. Ward 160
Cox 219
Edmund 224
Willis 279
Golding 283
Rice 295
Corrie 320
A. Ward 331

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Masters Series Champion

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Andy Murray 3
Dan Evans 130
James Ward 170
David Rice 250
Alex Ward 251
Marcus Willis 270
Oliver Golding 270
Liam Broady 275
Kyle Edmund 275
Dan Cox 275

As usual not a clue about the men's game outside Andy and the youngsters, but it'll be fun to follow throughout the year anyway

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Challenger qualifying

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Will there be a table where we can follow how our predictions are doing like there has been in the past?

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Sim


County player

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indiana wrote:

Seems pretty good to me, Sim, thanks for setting that out.

I'd just make one alternative suggestion :

The 1 point for GB rankings to be if you correctly predict that someone will be in the top 10 ( > 3 places out ) rather than just for 4 places out. I do think folk should get some definite credit for anyone they correctly predict to be in the top 10 ( apart from the separate potential reward of how accurately they then predict the WRs ).

I do like that, as with RBBOT's original thoughts, there are no negative connotations for prediction disasters such as long injuries or illness or even retirements or changing nationalities ( Bradley ? ). Just are effectively in danger of many less points than you hoped for ( even 0 ), but no need for any ranking adjustments, it's just a risk you run.

Nice that it's out of 100, I like round numbers.


The 1 point if in top GB top 10 makes sense.

I did think about injuries etc but thought it best to keep it simple. You can still get significant points despite injuries especially for the GB points. Take Heather Watson in 2013. I imagine most people would have predicted her as GB no.1 or no.2. Despite her illness she finished as no. 3 so you would have got 3 or 4 points. Has more impact on the world rnakings. 



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Junior player

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Good luck to everybody in this, looking forward to taking part for the first time. No real science into my predictions so it will be fun to see how badly i've done this time next year :)

1. Andy Murray - 3
2. Dan Evans - 115
3. James Ward - 140
4. Dan Cox - 185
5. Kyle Edmund - 190
6. David Rice - 235
7. Oli Golding - 250
8. Marcus Willis - 260
9. Edward Corrie - 290
10. Liam Broady - 300

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Social player

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1. A Murray - 3
2. D Evans - 134
3. K Edmund - 168
4. J Ward - 184
5. D Cox - 211
6. D Rice - 245
7. M Willis - 255
8. O Golding - 282
9. E Corrie - 295
10 B Klein - 315


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kaseldop


Tennis legend

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Trying this is always a mug's game, but here goes, if I'm not too late ...

1. Andy Murray - 2
2. Dan Evans - 120
3. Kyle Edmund - 150
4. James Ward - 160
5. Dan Cox - 200
6. Dave Rice - 220
7. Oli Golding - 250
8. Marcus Willis - 260
9. Alex Ward - 270
10. Dan Smethurst - 290

... with Liam, Brydan, Ashley, etc, threatening to break into the GB top 10 too.

This looks like it could well be the year when a lot of players finally do at least as well as some of our more optimistic predictions ... but no doubt injuries and weird losses of form will mean it isn't!

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Tennis legend

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I am predicting that we will get at least 20 players in the top 500 at some stage this season wink



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Tennis legend

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Bob in Spain wrote:

I am predicting that we will get at least 20 players in the top 500 at some stage this season wink


 Oh yes !



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Tennis legend

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Bob in Spain wrote:

I am predicting that we will get at least 20 players in the top 500 at some stage this season wink


Bambo will be your saviour. 



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paulisi wrote:
Bob in Spain wrote:

I am predicting that we will get at least 20 players in the top 500 at some stage this season wink


Bambo will be your saviour. 


Sneaky feeling that Cam Norrie might not be far away, as well as the many others that have been discussed.



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Satellite level

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freerider wrote:

Morning all, and very nearly merry Christmas everyone.

It's getting a bit close to the start of the season now and I am concerned that I haven't seen any 2014 ranking predictions yet!! I really couldn't care less about it being turned into a board competition, but I do really like seeing how the more informed posters who manage to make it to a few tournaments etc rate our players prospects. 

So I guess that I better kick off with my attempt at estimating the GB top 10 at the end of 2014...

 

1)Andy (2)

2)Evans (100)

3)Edmund (150)

4)J Ward (180)

5)A Ward (210)

6)Rice (215)

7)Golding (220)

8)Cox (250) 

9)Willis (290)

10) Gabb (310)

 

Very very hard to pick a top 10 this year, let alone order them let alone predict their world rankings!! Smethurst, Broady Hewitt, Bambridge all very nearly snuck onto my list, but I just have a feeling that Gabb is going to have a solid year with good scheduling, and consistency at futures level, along with some solid results at weaker challengers. He therefore made my list.

The most encouraging thing looking ahead to this year is that we have a very solid group of challenger players now, and a very real chance of ending 2014 with more than one in the top 100 :)

 

Like the optimism particularly Murray at no2 I think he will end year as no5

Will complete my list at weekend  


 



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