Week 3- Australian Open

indiana · Tennis legend

RE: Week 3- Australian Open

philwrig · Hall of fame

angry1 wrote:

I think Djokovic must be the favourite whoever he plays because I see him and Andy on HC as very evenly matched, but with the calming effect of having won a slam he should start more relaxed. If Ferrer wins it should be an easy win for ND.

I can't think of a match I'd enjoy less, barring injury, than Djokovic beating Andy in a slam final. All that hugging and charming stuff, I even prefer the old cardie wearer. It's still worth the risk obviously just means I won't look forward to the final if he beats Ferrer.

Out of interest what would people particularly better bettors than me do with my bet? I can take 53 points of extra profit now or risk losing it in return for another 22 points if Andy reaches the final.

I'm a small stakes punter so the only reason to close it would be the satisfaction of being right to do so as a miniscule comfort if Andy loses. I doubt I will close it but am interested in what people think the right unemotional decision would be.

I'm pretty confident Andy will beat Ferrer, but don't be to upset with me if you take that advice.

philwrig · Hall of fame

angry1 wrote:

philwrig wrote:

indiana wrote:

philwrig wrote:

For me all Andy needs to do is replicate his Melzer form and this title is his.
Fingers crossed he can do that.

Sorry, Phil don't see it as clearly as that. Djokovic is also capable of playing at a very high level, and from what I have seen seems to be playing well as it is. Frankly to me, if they both play towards their best in any final meeting, it will be a very good match with the winner not at all easy to call.

And Djokovic won't "go away" the way Melzer did even if he falls behind the way Melzer did.

-- Edited by indiana on Thursday 27th of January 2011 02:19:13 PM

We shall see.
Andy was so sensational against Melzer that even a decent performance from the Djoker today doesn't make me change my opinion. Nole to me was playing better at last years US open.
Andy to me seems to be on a mission this week and assuming he doesn't bottle it would be the favourite against Djokovic.
Further confidence comes from the fact that I didn't get a bet on at the ridiculous odds of 5/1, if I had then no doubt Andy would end up losing.

Do you bet on golf? I backed Harrington last week @50/1 and jt2nd after the first round if told in time, this week 12/1 I couldn't back him again. I also backed, that's not a bunker Dustin last year.

Have an occasional flutter on the big events, but its not a sport I follow that closely.

angry1 · Lower Club Player

philwrig wrote:

I'm pretty confident Andy will beat Ferrer, but don't be to upset with me if you take that advice.

Cheers, at my stakes losing the bet wouldn't be noticed amid my diappointment over Andy's defeat.

I just wondered how confident people, particularly those used to assessing chances, were about the semi. I reckon I'll leave it, if Andy wins the title that will be another extra cherry on the cake although the bet is a pick the finalists so I won't get extra for him winning.

indiana · Tennis legend

angry1 wrote:

Cheers, at my stakes losing the bet wouldn't be noticed amid my diappointment over Andy's defeat.

I just wondered how confident people, particularly those used to assessing chances, were about the semi. I reckon I'll leave it, if Andy wins the title that will be another extra cherry on the cake although the bet is a pick the finalists so I won't get extra for him winning.

At 53 points as against 22, that represents proportionally 70.7 as against 29.3 in 100.

While as I have indicated above I certainly think Ferrer is a worthy opponent I would personally put Andy's chances as more than that 70.7% so yes, I'd too leave it.

-- Edited by indiana on Thursday 27th of January 2011 09:57:31 PM

Madeline · Admin:Moderator + Tennis Legend

I'll never understand betting (or statistics).

indiana · Tennis legend

I'd offer 6 / 4 on that if you really wanted to you would understand betting, Mad smile

seagull · Hall of fame

Has anyone got a link to the match (not BBC)..please?

SMC1809 · All-time great

http://www.livescorehunter.com/index.php?option=com_lsh&view=lsh&event_id=37050&tid=41120&channel=0&tmpl=component&layout=popup&Itemid=207

seagull · Hall of fame

Thanks but does not load for me...any others?

SMC1809 · All-time great

http://www.everythingon.tv/channel/view/eurosport-4

seagull · Hall of fame

Thanks for trying but it seems my work does not want me to watch game!

Oh well the way it's going perhaps it's better I'm not watching!

Mikeduke · County player

God this is hard to watch

dougie · Club Coach

Tough service hold there to clinch the 3rd set 6-1, saved a few break points but some good serving saw him come through.

On the whole an excellent 3rd set there from Andy, really stepped it up, getting in over 70% of first serves and hitting the ball more aggressively whilst reducing the errors! Ferrer made a few errors than he had been making but on the whole a far great set of tennis by Andy.

dougie · Club Coach

Andy gets the break to love at start of the 4th set.

4-6, 7-6, 6-1, *1-0