Week 3- Australian Open

steven · Tennis legend

RE: Week 3- Australian Open

kundalini · Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

RJA wrote:

So who would people rather see in the final Federer or Djokovic.

I have a feeling that Andy would be better off playing Federer.

NB: Not taking anything for granted about the SF

Djokovic definitely as Federer gets inspired by the stage of a slam final. The fact that Andy has played Roger twice and is yet to win a set is an indication of the match-up in a slam final.

philwrig · Hall of fame

steven wrote:

philwrig wrote:

Thats an interesting call.
I'd still go with the Djoker eventhough there's not a huge amount to choose between the two.
I just think Andy would be more comfortable playing against his good mate, and Novak has said he would like to see Andy lifting a GS title sooner rather than later. Fed would still provide the greater mental obstacle IMO.
I can't see him throwing the match if they meet in the Final though

Btw, I agree with those who say the senior 'comedy' doubles is only funny once, if that.

Can't you !?
I do think though that Fed's hate for Andy makes him a tougher opponent.
Nole takes the first set against the run of play.

RJA · Hall of fame

Djokovic beats Federer in straight sets.

Fed showed moments of genius, and served for the second set, but he never had the consistency that he needed to win this match.

wolf · Tennis legend

Anyone seen this from the BBC? http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/tennis/9377222.stm

From the top of the article: -

Andy Murray will attempt to reach a second consecutive Australian Open final and close on a first major title when he faces David Ferrer on Friday.

The British number one will be appearing in his fifth Grand Slam semi-final, with a repeat of last year's final against Roger Federer the prize.

Do people get actually, you know, paid to write this stuff? I know we complain about coverage of the lower ranked Brits on this board but this is something else.

indiana · Tennis legend

Yes, on balance I do think that's a good result for Andy ifff he reaches the final.

Which is certainly not to underestimate Djoko at all who who was probably a bit underestimated coming in ( easy to say now smile

) and is clearly playing very well, although I didn't see that much of his semi. He has said himself, with little close season after the Serbia Davis Cup triumph, he's almost felt as if he's just played on into the new season.

And we do know that Andy has an overall winning record against Fed, BUT he has lost his two Slam final appearances to Fed and I think there could have been a bit of a psychological issue playing Fed in another final. Not that Fed would have mentioned the previous two finals wink

Djoko if he plays to his best will still be a formidable rival desperate to win a second Slam for him. I think Djoko matches up decently for Andy though and although 4 - 3 down in H to H overall Andy has won the last 3 after 4 which included one Djoko win on clay and at least one of two American spring masters semis in 2007 when Andy was in less than top physical shape going in. They have not met since the Miami Masters final in 2009 when Andy won 6 - 2 7 - 5. It would all though be very much about who performs on the day.

Basically though it is mainly to me that Djokovic comes with less other issues for Andy than Fed would have and so much of top level tennis is played in the mind.

All this of course is irrelevant if Andy doesn't beat Ferrer. So hopefully he's got the Dolgopolov nonsence out of his system, can be back playing "normal" more positive tennis rather than the wait for mistakes stuff which he will well know himself wouldn't be the brightest strategy anyway against Ferrer.

-- Edited by indiana on Thursday 27th of January 2011 04:21:28 PM

RJA · Hall of fame

Ferrer is hardly going to be relishing this match after what Andy did to him in London only a couple of months ago.

As for Djokovic his record in big finals isn't that good. 1-2 in Grand Slams and 5-6 in Masters Series. Furthermore with the exception of one final against Federer all of those victories have come against players who aren't quite top draw. Tsonga in his only grand slam win and Monfils, Warwrinka, Fish and Canas in Masters series. Also his 6 masters series final defeats have all been in straight sets (3 to Nadal, 2 to Murray and 1 to Fed)

-- Edited by RJA on Thursday 27th of January 2011 02:04:20 PM

philwrig · Hall of fame

For me all Andy needs to do is replicate his Melzer form and this title is his.
Fingers crossed he can do that.

indiana · Tennis legend

I certainly see Andy as favourite against Ferrer.

However, I do think the end of season ATP finals are maybe not always the greatest guide in the following season and Andy would still have fancied his chances against Fed in spite of what Fed did to him there. And I do certainly see Ferrer as being more motivated here.

He's certainly also clearly pretty decent on hard with apart from his achievements here having won the title in Valencia towards the end of last year and in the lesser Auckland tournament earlier this month.

indiana · Tennis legend

philwrig wrote:

For me all Andy needs to do is replicate his Melzer form and this title is his.
Fingers crossed he can do that.

Sorry, Phil don't see it as clearly as that. Djokovic is also capable of playing at a very high level, and from what I have seen seems to be playing well as it is. Frankly to me, if they both play towards their best in any final meeting, it will be a very good match with the winner not at all easy to call.

And Djokovic won't "go away" the way Melzer did even if he falls behind the way Melzer did.

-- Edited by indiana on Thursday 27th of January 2011 02:19:13 PM

andyjmr · Intermediate Club Player

What an opportunity for andy, the whole draw simply couldn't have panned out any better for him. i think he'd fancy his chances against novak in the final, so fingers crossed he doesn't slip up against ferrer.

-- Edited by andyjmr on Thursday 27th of January 2011 02:33:58 PM

philwrig · Hall of fame

indiana wrote:

philwrig wrote:

For me all Andy needs to do is replicate his Melzer form and this title is his.
Fingers crossed he can do that.

Sorry, Phil don't see it as clearly as that. Djokovic is also capable of playing at a very high level, and from what I have seen seems to be playing well as it is. Frankly to me, if they both play towards their best in any final meeting, it will be a very good match with the winner not at all easy to call.

And Djokovic won't "go away" the way Melzer did even if he falls behind the way Melzer did.

-- Edited by indiana on Thursday 27th of January 2011 02:19:13 PM

We shall see.
Andy was so sensational against Melzer that even a decent performance from the Djoker today doesn't make me change my opinion. Nole to me was playing better at last years US open.
Andy to me seems to be on a mission this week and assuming he doesn't bottle it would be the favourite against Djokovic.
Further confidence comes from the fact that I didn't get a bet on at the ridiculous odds of 5/1, if I had then no doubt Andy would end up losing.

angry1 · Lower Club Player

I think Djokovic must be the favourite whoever he plays because I see him and Andy on HC as very evenly matched, but with the calming effect of having won a slam he should start more relaxed. If Ferrer wins it should be an easy win for ND.

I can't think of a match I'd enjoy less, barring injury, than Djokovic beating Andy in a slam final. All that hugging and charming stuff, I even prefer the old cardie wearer. It's still worth the risk obviously just means I won't look forward to the final if he beats Ferrer.

Out of interest what would people particularly better bettors than me do with my bet? I can take 53 points of extra profit now or risk losing it in return for another 22 points if Andy reaches the final.

I'm a small stakes punter so the only reason to close it would be the satisfaction of being right to do so as a miniscule comfort if Andy loses. I doubt I will close it but am interested in what people think the right unemotional decision would be.

angry1 · Lower Club Player

philwrig wrote:

indiana wrote:

philwrig wrote:

For me all Andy needs to do is replicate his Melzer form and this title is his.
Fingers crossed he can do that.

Sorry, Phil don't see it as clearly as that. Djokovic is also capable of playing at a very high level, and from what I have seen seems to be playing well as it is. Frankly to me, if they both play towards their best in any final meeting, it will be a very good match with the winner not at all easy to call.

And Djokovic won't "go away" the way Melzer did even if he falls behind the way Melzer did.

-- Edited by indiana on Thursday 27th of January 2011 02:19:13 PM

We shall see.
Andy was so sensational against Melzer that even a decent performance from the Djoker today doesn't make me change my opinion. Nole to me was playing better at last years US open.
Andy to me seems to be on a mission this week and assuming he doesn't bottle it would be the favourite against Djokovic.
Further confidence comes from the fact that I didn't get a bet on at the ridiculous odds of 5/1, if I had then no doubt Andy would end up losing.

Do you bet on golf? I backed Harrington last week @50/1 and jt2nd after the first round if told in time, this week 12/1 I couldn't back him again. I also backed, that's not a bunker Dustin last year.

RJA · Hall of fame

I would make Andy the slight favourite against Djokovic but not by much. On his day Djokovic is as good as anyone and he will also see this is a great opportunity to end his three years without a Grand Slam title.