Week 47 - ATP World Tour Finals 1500

philwrig · Hall of fame

RE: Week 47 - ATP World Tour Finals 1500

indiana · Tennis legend

Clearly Andy's shirts are at fault, he couldn't get comfortable, so not comfortable on serve, it goes awry as subsequently does whole game.

OK, maybe not. But anyway 44% first serves in ( 32% in first set ) is no basis for a match, just makes life so much easier and helps confidence generally when serve going much better than that.

8 / 44 ( 18% ) points on return from a returner like Andy though is also pretty shock news. Fed did seem quite shocked by how easy he had it on serve. Andy just not gettting his timing right. And that was with Fed's own first serve in % just at 55%.

I know some seem to think otherwise but I still think generally Andy wants a quicker court where he can be more reactive to what's coming to him. Yes, no doubt with his retrieving skills he will get even more back on a slower court to really frustrate some opponents, but he can get a hell of a lot back and more surprisingly on a faster court. Just his reactions and ball sense to me generally work more effectively on a faster court.

That said, that's really more relevant for another day. Today I think the result would have been the same on any court given as Mad said Andy didn't really turn up. Fed able to play him at his own game at times, mixing it up a bit and just waiting for him to force and make mistakes. Fed certainly did play very well but would have expected more to beat.

Anyway, kind of cancels out the good sets and games advantage Andy had bulit up with his equally clear win vs Sod. But still very much in it, doesn't actually necessarily even have to beat Ferrer to go through ( in spite of what Sue may suggest ! ) depending on other results, though the ranking points would be nice. Will though have to win on Thursday if Ferrer beats Sod tonight and that would then be the most straightforward scenario for Thursday with the Andy vs Ferrer winner going through to the semis with Fed.

Count Zero · Tennis legend

well i hope no one paid too much for a ticket after that, having said that should he play Fed it again this week i wouldn't say the result is inevitable.

indiana · Tennis legend

philwrig wrote:

I still fancy Andy to qualify but any rematch this week against Fed is surely unwinnable after that.

Don't agree at all. Would definitely make Fed favourite in a final rematch but form, and often Andy's form, can change remarkably quickly.

philwrig · Hall of fame

I wonder what the stats are for a rematch the same week of a round robin format. I just think the memory is so fresh of this defeat, and the fact that it was such a thrashing make a reverse seem highly unlikely.

Julia Carrot · All-time great

Just back from London. The train journey was more of a treat than the match biggrin

I blame the shirt. The white one really was a shocker...... he changed it back to his lucky (ier) black one, but it was too late then.

MiloTheCat · Lower Club Player

apologies if this has been clearly stated already - but could someone summarise the permutations- specifiically I was wondering

1. if all three end with one win and it goes to a 3 way countback - does it include the results against Rog?

2. if Robin beats Rog and Andy beats Ferrer (2 wins each) - does it go on their average overall - or on the head to head?

I ask here since this forum was way ahead of the bbc/atp/etc last year smile

philwrig · Hall of fame

MiloTheCat wrote:

apologies if this has been clearly stated already - but could someone summarise the permutations- specifiically I was wondering

1. if all three end with one win and it goes to a 3 way countback - does it include the results against Rog?

2. if Robin beats Rog and Andy beats Ferrer (2 wins each) - does it go on their average overall - or on the head to head?

I ask here since this forum was way ahead of the bbc/atp/etc last year

Head to heads are irrevelant, overall records are used.

If Sod beats Fed in straight sets, Andy must likewise beat Ferrer in straights which would leave them both with a 4 sets won 2 sets lost record. It would then go to % games won to separate them. Andy currently being in a better position on that front than Sod.

If Fed beats Sod in straights, Andy could qualify without beating Ferrer.

I'm sorry if thats as clear as mud.

Madeline · Admin:Moderator + Tennis Legend

And just to stir the mud a little further, I don't think H2H's are totally irrelevant. If there is one clear winner of the group going through, and one clear loser, with the other two tying on wins - the H2H comes into account before they go on to count sets and games. At least, that's what the ATP rulebook seems to say.

The final standings of each group shall be determined by the first of the following
methods that apply:
Greatest number of wins;
Greatest number of matches played;
Head-to-head results if only two (2) players are tied,

-- Edited by Madeline on Wednesday 24th of November 2010 12:45:41 AM

Josh · Challenger level

That scenario could only happen to decide 1st place though. If Sod beats Fed and Ferrer beats Andy then Sod would top the group with Fed in 2nd. The H2H rule would only decide who they would play in the semis, not who qualifies since both Fed and Sod would have 2 wins and Andy and Ferrer 1.

If one player wins all his matches (Federer) and the other three are all tied on 1 win each then H2H would be irrelevant since they all have a record of won 1 lost 1 amongst the tied players. Likewise if Ferrer loses all his matches and the other 3 are all tied on 2 wins each then H2H would still be irrelevant.

MiloTheCat · Lower Club Player

Thanks - in a 3 way tie it seems the head to head only becomes relevant if two players are tied on %sets, %games

d) If three (3) players are tied, then:
i) If three (3) players each have one win, a player having played less than all
three (3) matches is automatically eliminated and the player advancing to
the single elimination competition is the winner of the match-up of the two
(2) players tied with 1-2 records; or
ii) Highest percentage of sets won; or
iii) Highest percentage of games won.
iv) If (i), (ii) or (iii) produce one (1) superior player (first place), or one (1) inferior
player (third place), and the two (2) remaining players are tied, the tie
between those two (2) players shall be broken by head-to-head record.

-- Edited by MiloTheCat on Wednesday 24th of November 2010 07:28:29 AM

-- Edited by MiloTheCat on Wednesday 24th of November 2010 07:32:50 AM

seagull · Hall of fame

Do we know who is playing first? Hopefully Andy is on last and knows exactly what he needs, unlike last years dubious match between Fed and Del Potro where they both managed to go through

MiloTheCat · Lower Club Player

Thanks Steven, I hadnt interpreted the rules correctly - so if Fed wins a 3 way tie on %sets - then 2nd place goes by h2h.

The odds are looking quite good though I fear Andy will find Ferrer quite a tough nut to crack.

-- Edited by MiloTheCat on Wednesday 24th of November 2010 10:13:47 AM

Madeline · Admin:Moderator + Tennis Legend

I really can't see Fed losing to Sod (look at their H2H!) and risking being knocked out himself - there are too many probabilities. (I'm pretty sure that's what he did last year though, when he was already sure of the situation) Also, he has said he would like to get the #1 ranking back and 200 points are not to be sniffed at.

steven · Tennis legend

Thanks for that, much appreciated - the number of games won and total games for those scorelines (which are hidden off the right-hand side of the spreadsheet) somehow got switched for those two pairs of rows. I've re-checked all the othe rows and they're ok.

In fact, 10 would be enough, but not if the scoreline was 5 & 5.